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Zeynep Tufekci presentation at AUSACE 2011 at Beirut.
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Social Media and Social Media and Dynamics of Collective Action Dynamics of Collective Action
Zeynep TufekciAssistant Professor
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Berkman Center for Internet & SocietyHarvard
@techsoc zeynep@unc.edu
#freeAlaa#freeAlaa
Durable AuthoritarianismDurable Authoritarianism 30-40+ year Autocracies; common in 30-40+ year Autocracies; common in
MENAMENA
Scholars dub these “Durable Scholars dub these “Durable Authoritarianism”Authoritarianism”
Often deeply unpopular, unsuccessfulOften deeply unpopular, unsuccessful
Often the question should be not “why did Often the question should be not “why did they fall,” but why they did not beforethey fall,” but why they did not before
Collective Action ProblemCollective Action Problem When a shared problem would be effective When a shared problem would be effective
solved by mass participationsolved by mass participation
But when there are:But when there are: high costs for individualshigh costs for individuals high cost of failurehigh cost of failure hard to communicate/organizehard to communicate/organize
This is often a key mechanism to “durable This is often a key mechanism to “durable authoritarianism”, i.e. create a collective action authoritarianism”, i.e. create a collective action problem for its populationproblem for its population
(Of course, patronage systems, ethnic divisions, (Of course, patronage systems, ethnic divisions, etc. also play a role)etc. also play a role)
How to Create a Collective Action How to Create a Collective Action Problem:Problem:
Censorship: makes it easier to isolate, Censorship: makes it easier to isolate, crushcrush
Restrict means of organization: makes it Restrict means of organization: makes it harder for citizens to unite to solve their harder for citizens to unite to solve their dilemmadilemma
High cost of dissent: torture/jailHigh cost of dissent: torture/jail Minimize protest potentialMinimize protest potential
States are resource-constrained States are resource-constrained actorsactors
A common mistake is assuming there is no A common mistake is assuming there is no limit to repressionlimit to repression
States are resource-constrained actors and States are resource-constrained actors and cannot effectively repress all their citizenscannot effectively repress all their citizens
In other words, authoritarian states must In other words, authoritarian states must play “whack-a-protest” in order to surviveplay “whack-a-protest” in order to survive
Hidden Preferences and CascadesHidden Preferences and Cascades Authoritarian regimes create conditions of Authoritarian regimes create conditions of
“Preference Falsification” & “Pluralistic “Preference Falsification” & “Pluralistic Ignorance” (Kuran 1997, 1989), i.e. Ignorance” (Kuran 1997, 1989), i.e. people don’t share their true preferences people don’t share their true preferences out of fear/normsout of fear/norms
Perception is part of what shapes reality, Perception is part of what shapes reality, i.e. if people perceive an opportunity, it is i.e. if people perceive an opportunity, it is more likely to be possiblemore likely to be possible
Some Mechanisms Social Media AlterSome Mechanisms Social Media Alter Makes it harder to censor news and Makes it harder to censor news and
information (national and international information (national and international both matter)both matter)
Makes it easier for citizens to signal Makes it easier for citizens to signal preferences and willingness en masse preferences and willingness en masse (which is important because individual (which is important because individual signaling is costly)signaling is costly)
Helps document torture/torturers creating Helps document torture/torturers creating counter-movementcounter-movement
Allows coordination/info flow during Allows coordination/info flow during protestsprotests
Case of EgyptCase of Egypt Persistent organizing and efforts at least Persistent organizing and efforts at least
for a decade, many earlier protests (small for a decade, many earlier protests (small or crushed)or crushed)
Multi-factor as usual: Youth/elite Multi-factor as usual: Youth/elite dissatisfaction, labor movement, rising dissatisfaction, labor movement, rising food prices, economic stagnation, etc. food prices, economic stagnation, etc. Tunisia also very important example.Tunisia also very important example.
This StudyThis Study Protestor Survey in Tahrir, February 2011 Protestor Survey in Tahrir, February 2011
((after Mubarak’s ousterafter Mubarak’s ouster; ; but while still tensebut while still tense))
N=1050 (Conducted by Engine Room: N=1050 (Conducted by Engine Room: http://www.engineroom.no/)http://www.engineroom.no/)
Snowball sample, dangerous conditions.Snowball sample, dangerous conditions. Is not representative of Cairo and it’s not Is not representative of Cairo and it’s not
possible or desirable to weight (lack of data possible or desirable to weight (lack of data about Cairo!) about Cairo!)
Caution:This is a survey of 1050 protestors Caution:This is a survey of 1050 protestors who took part in the demonstrations. Not to who took part in the demonstrations. Not to be overgeneralized. be overgeneralized.
33.9%32.9%33.9%Attended Protests Before?
36.3%32.9%37.5%Present on First day of Protests?
51.5%56.9%49.7%Internet on Phone*
80%90.3%77.0 %Internet at Home***
5.3 5.65.1Education*** (1=no educ; 7=post-grad)
28.526.629.1Age***
Mean (std error)
MeanMean
TotalFemaleMale
Sample Characteristics
Use of Information and Communication Technologies for General Purposes
62.958.564.3Print Use
93.694.393.3Satellite TV Use
92.293.092.0Phone Use
83.285.282.5Email Use
15.318.214.3Blog Use
62.266.660.8Text Use
1619.714.8Twitter Use
5260.449.2Facebook Use
%%%
TotalFemaleMale
Use of ICT for Protest Purposes
57.552.159.3Print Use**
91.992.691.7Satellite TV Use
81.686.780.0Phone Use**
26.933.025.0Email Use**
11.515.910.1Blog Use**
46.348.645.5Text Use
12.818.211.1Twitter Use***
50.760.047.7Facebook Use***
%%%
TotalFemaleMale
Model 4Model 3Model 2Model 1
Attended Protests BeforeAttended First Day of Protests (January 25)
Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.007 1.009 1.033*** 1.036*** Male 1.294 1.291† 1.091 1.062 Education 1.047 0.997 1.143* 1.063 Internet at Home 1.453* 1.318 1.602* 1.394 Internet on Phone 1.092 1.031 1.169 1.123 Text Gen. Use 1.128 1.156 Facebook Gen.Use 1.252 1.342* Twitter Gen. Use 1.536* 1.351† Blogs Gen. Use 1.354† 1.486* Email Gen. Use 0.799 1.020 Phone Gen. Use 1.137 0.683 Sat. TV Gen. Use 0.540* 0.815 Print Gen. Use 1.274† 1.677*** _cons 0.214*** 0.342* 0.075*** N 1050 1050 1050 ll -682.616 -67 -651.436 635.845 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 † p<0.10
What the Previous Table Says:What the Previous Table Says: Internet at home is associated with higher Internet at home is associated with higher
levels of protest participationlevels of protest participation
But this relationship is actually mediated But this relationship is actually mediated by type of platform, for example, Twitter by type of platform, for example, Twitter with being there on First day, Facebook with being there on First day, Facebook having attended protests before.having attended protests before.
Satellite TV associated with lower Satellite TV associated with lower participation. (“Inferior goods?”)participation. (“Inferior goods?”)
Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.012 1.035*** Male 1.437* 1.132 Education 0.996 1.075 Internet at Home 1.233 1.441† Internet on Phone 1.071 1.110 Text Protest Use 1.116 1.188† Facebook Protest Use 1.411* 1.199 Twitter Protest Use 1.414† 1.221 Blogs Protest Use 1.574* 1.360 Email Protest Use 1.313† 1.152 Phone Protest Use 1.531* 1.139 Sat. TV Protest Use 0.714 0.787 Print Protest Use 0.961 1.353* zf2fprotest 1.214 0.618† _cons 0.140*** 0.088*** N 1049 1049ll -662.300 -639.014 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
Attended Protests Before
Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
What the Previous Table Says:What the Previous Table Says: Social media use for protest purposes is Social media use for protest purposes is
significantly associated with protest significantly associated with protest participation, especially showing up on participation, especially showing up on first day.first day.
Effect for Facebook, Blogs, Phone Effect for Facebook, Blogs, Phone statistically significant, Email, Blogs statistically significant, Email, Blogs marginally significantmarginally significant
Table 6. Whether Respondent Used Specific Media to Produce or Disseminate Visuals (%)
2.0Text
2.1Email
1Blog
25.1Facebook
5.1Twitter
4.0Face-to-face
3.2Print
14.7Phone
51.8Did not produce any visuals or pictures
So:So: Facebook primary mechanism for Facebook primary mechanism for
producing/disseminating visual contentproducing/disseminating visual content
About half the sample participated in About half the sample participated in some form of citizen/activist journalismsome form of citizen/activist journalism
(Iran/Green revolution was probably first)(Iran/Green revolution was probably first)
Logistic Regression(Predictors: Use of Media to Produce & Disseminate Visuals)
Attended Protests Before
Attended FirstDay of Protests(January 25)
Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.012 1.037*** Male 1.230 1.079 Education 1.012 1.123* Internet at Home 1.367 1.543* Internet on Phone 1.070 1.158 No Production 0.922 0.755 Phone Production 1.199 0.603 Print Production 1.695 1.108* Face-to-Face 1.424 2.135 Twitter Production 1.322* 1.139 Facebook Production 1.685† 1.126 Blog Production 4.348 1.281 Email Production 1.448* 0.819* Text Production 3.467* 3.161* _cons 0.192*** 0.067*** N 1050 1050
Previous Table:Previous Table: Twitter, Facebook media producers more Twitter, Facebook media producers more
likely to have been their on the first daylikely to have been their on the first day
Not very strong effects for previous Not very strong effects for previous protest attendance (also confirming that protest attendance (also confirming that many protestors were novices to street many protestors were novices to street protests)protests)
Where did you first hear of the protests? %
Facebook 28.3Phone 13.1Sat. TV 4.0Face-to-face 48.4Other 6.2
Attended Protests Before
Attended FirstDay of Protests(January 25)
Exp(b) Exp(b)Age 1.010 1.034*** Male 1.273 1.072 Education 1.025 1.135* Internet at Home 1.334 1.525* Internet on Phone 1.105 1.185 First on FB 0.830 1.020 First on Phone 0.438*** 0.502** First on TV 0.811 1.060 First other Media 0.924 1.008 _cons 0.281*** 0.065*** N 1050 1050 ll -675.694 -646.304 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
Protest Participation and Where first Heard of the ProtestsProtest Participation and Where first Heard of the Protests
ConclusionConclusion Internet users more likely to be in Tahrir on January 25 Internet users more likely to be in Tahrir on January 25
– especially if they were social media users. – especially if they were social media users.
Effect even stronger for citizen/activists journalists.Effect even stronger for citizen/activists journalists.
First day important: key to collective action under First day important: key to collective action under authoritarianism. The worst position is to participate in a authoritarianism. The worst position is to participate in a failed protest.failed protest.
Facebook was key platform for disseminating word of Facebook was key platform for disseminating word of the protests – learning about protest from Facebook the protests – learning about protest from Facebook equal effect to learning it face-to-face.equal effect to learning it face-to-face.
Visual news production was very widespread.Visual news production was very widespread.
Social media appear as crucial components of the storySocial media appear as crucial components of the story
This, of course, does not take away from the bravery of This, of course, does not take away from the bravery of the Egyptian people.the Egyptian people.
Thank you! Questions?Thank you! Questions?
By Zeynep TufekciAssistant Professor
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Fellow, Harvard Berkman Center for Internet and Society
@techsoc zeynep@unc.edu
#freeAlaa
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