zerocarbonbritain2030 general

In collaboration with…

Universities

Industry

Research Centres

• zerocarbonbritain2030 is the first fully integrated solution to climate change.

• It offers a positive, realistic vision grounded in the latest climate science.

• It provides political, economic and technological solutions to the urgent challenges raised in tackling climate change

What is zerocarbonbritain2030

• Big, structural change rather than small incremental reductions

• No False Starts or dead ends

• 80% target might mean we cant get to 100%

• No Offsets, all local solutions

• No Silver bullet technologies. We rely on established methods

What is zerocarbonbritain2030

Alternative Decarbonisation

Time

Emissions

Andersen (ish)

Basic

Aim

We need a plan!!!

Narrative

• Stop climate chaos, don’t fly, don’t drive, turn

off, climate Apocalypse, climate disaster

Promised Land

THE YAWNING CHASM

POLITICAL REALISM PHYSICAL REALISM

FURIOUS ACTIVITY

ZCB

A

BPhysically feasible

decarbonised worlds

You are here

Exploring synergy

Scope: Greenhouse Gasses

Our wellbeing depends on:

• Climate equity

• Energy progressive

• Economic stability

• International cooperation

• Global emissions must cut by 72% from 1990 levels by 2050 for an 84% chance of avoiding two degrees warming.

(Meinshausen - 2009)

Climate Equity

Equity - taking a global lead

• Britain, as a historical polluter, must make deeper, faster cuts to account for our ecological debt.

• This allows developing countries shallower decarbonisation path

Climate Equity

Damage to the environment, security and livelihoods by the Fossil Fuel industry

Energy Progressive

Energy Security

Economic Security

• Estimates indicate replacing North Sea extraction with imports would add £53 billion to the UK annual trade deficit in 2030

• In addition the Exchequer raised nearly £13 billion from offshore oil & gas in 2008

Economic Security

• 56% reduction in energy use by 2030

• Sector by Sector:– Built environment– Transport– Land-use– Industry– Behaviour

• Domestic approx 30% total emissions2030 - reduce energy use (heating & lighting) by 80%

• Non-domestic 25% of total emissions2030 - 37% reduction in emissions

UK Buildings are incredibly inefficient

Built environment

• Natural materials low embodied energy & sequestration

• Insulating - large-scale retro-fit programme.

• Heat pumps• Thermal Comfort

woolley jumpers• Energy Service

Companies (ESCO’s)

Built environment

• Change of energy source from fossil fuels

• Electrification of cars, trains & LGV’s

• Modal shift - private car to public transport, walking and cycling

• Reduction in passenger km

Electric cars get a makeover

Transport - overview

• No domestic aviation, 1/3 international on current levels

• High speed electric train network

• Indigenous bioenergy & hydrogen to power HGV’s and planes

Why don’t we have these in the UK?

Transport

NOW 2030

Transport - modes (km)

• Power Down - Sources of emissions related to land and how to reduce

• Power Up - Use of land in a low carbon energy system

Land use

• Food - more local production of staples

• Sequestration - forest sinks, timber for building

• Fuel - for transport & backup

Land use

• 80% reduction of livestock products, particularly red meat and dairy

• This mix closely matches the recommendations for a healthy diet

Diet

Land use emissions - now

Land use emissions - zcb2030

• Food security• Food quality• Biodiversity • Rural life and livelihoods

Benefits

Energy Archaic

Current energy system

• All our energy needs, at all times, can be met with 100% renewables

• We can meet the challenges of variability

• We’ve only used proven technologies

Powering up

• Britain has 40% of Europe's renewable resource in offshore wind

• What is the value of this resource?

• It has the potential to inject billions of pounds into the UK economy

Tomorrow£196,000

Powering up - offshore wind

Tomorrow£196,000

Powering up - potential

Source: PIRC Offshore Evaluation

• Revitalisation of industry, resulting in thousands of jobs

• Upgrading of ports

• World leader in renewable technology

• Exports of up to 17% earning £7bn annually

Tomorrow£196,000

Powering up - offshore wind

Offshore wind

Delivered Electricity 2030

Offshore wind

Heat pumps

Electricity, heat and transport 2030

• More stable & predictable energy price:

not dependent on international markets & dwindling supply

• No feedstock - more secure supply

• Green jobs - hundreds of thousands in manufacture and

service

• Improved air quality

Powering up - advantages

• Demand-side management

• New renewables capitalising mechanisms - upfront vs

ongoing cost & discount rates

• Changes to TNUoS, DNUoS & BSUoS - make beneficial for renewables

• Variable electricity pricing - smart meters

• Behavioural change - energy education

Powering up - associated mechanisms

• Smart grids• Limited use of biogas

- expensive backup• EU Super-grid• Thermal-mass of building stock

Variability managed by

• High Voltage DC Grid

• Linking up the offshore wind-farms

• Also linking the winter wind to the summer sun

EU Energy network

• Not mutually inclusive with renewables• Effective for lower emissions reductions• Minimise losses (7%)• Can be expensive - system & storage• Need access to suitable renewables

- warning: biofuels

Micro-grids

Heat

• Internationally binding deal involving cap on emissions

• High carbon price - £200 - £400/tonne CO2(e)

• A mix of national policy options that allow equitable access to energy for all

• Deliberate reconstruction of the UK economy to one that is stable, resilient and exists within the world’s ecological limits.

Framework - policy

• Hundreds of thousands

of new jobs

• Builders, engineers,

manufacturing

• More predictable

energy price

• Setting a global lead….

Framework - a Green New Deal

Now

2030

Getting there…

• Providing a positive vision for the future

• Give shape to a renewable future

• Develop the synergies between sectors

• Plan for big infrastructural changes

Report to reality