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The Social Dimensions of Climate ChangeReconciling climate change and development
The Washington Center
Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
Presentation by Carina Bachofencarina.bachofen@gmail.com
PURPOSE of today’s lecture
To demonstrate WHY a social dimensions of climate change perspective contributes to a more holistic analysis of climate change impacts on human and social systems
To understand HOW this perspective can inform sustainable development interventions
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
SCOPE of today’s lecture
๏What are the social dimensions of climate change?
๏Understanding vulnerability and resilience
๏Complex social responses to climate change and the link to development
๏ Importance of governance
๏Devising climate-resilient development policies at Cancun and beyond
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
Climate Change: An assessment
Unequivocal means that climate change is real and undeniable
Accelerating means that the effect is getting worse
“Very Likely” Anthropogenic implies a probability of more than 90% that it is human induced and not the result of natural causes
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
PowerTransportIndustryBuildingsLand useAgricultureWasteOther energy
Climate Change: human contribution
Climate Change and DevelopmentAn additional stress on an already stressed system
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
IPCC projected natural impacts
complex social responses
equity
human rights and other implications
Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to unique systems and biodiversity, increase in flooding and storm surges
Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conflict; damage to infrastructure; decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts
Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination; property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children
Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations
Vulnerability
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation in which a system is EXPOSED, its SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (IPCC 2007a, p21)
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Exposure to Risk
Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is subjected, such as:
๏Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)
๏Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)
๏Reduced agricultural productivity
๏Increased water insecurity
๏Increased health risk
๏Large-scale singularities
๏Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Exposure to RiskDrought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All Low lying All Low lying Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Low income High incomeMiddle income
Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk
Source: World Bank 2008
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
๏ Geographic context
๏ Dependence on the environment for livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and medicine
๏ Asset and resource deficiency
๏ Governance / political economy issues
๏ Access to information, decision making and justice
Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate change impacts:
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
Sensitivity
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Who are vulnerable?
๏ Women
๏ Indigenous Peoples
๏ The urban poor
๏ Inhabitants of small island states
๏ Vulnerability is not a uniform taxonomy
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
Sensitivity
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Climate change will exert an additional stress on an already sensitive system
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
90% of the world’s poor depend on forests for their income
30% of the population - more than 800 million people - is malnourished
70% of the people who live in extreme poverty are women and girls
Sensitivity
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Adaptive Capacity
Strengthening adaptive capacity by building assets, capital and resources
๏Human
๏ Social and cultural
๏Natural
๏ Physical
๏ Financial
๏Research and Innovation
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Resilience
Resilience occurs where adaptive capacity is strong, inequalities are addressed, and exposure minimized. It reflects the ability to deal with change and continue to develop.
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Complex social response: Loss of livelihoods
๏ Livelihood sources of the poor are usually narrow and climate-sensitive
๏ 2.6bn people are dependent on agriculture
๏ In periods of stress they draw down on a variety of assets and resources leaving them further exposed to the next risk.
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Complex social response: Health and fatalities
๏ Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever are sensitive to temperature and precipitation patterns. Today, approximately 40% of the world’s population is at risk from malaria; this is projected to rise to 80 % by 2080.
๏ Ill-health reduces productivity and perpetuates poverty; financial resources are increasingly being stretched by climate-related disasters and outbreaks.
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Complex social response: Migration and displacement
๏ By 2050, up to 200 million people may be permanently displaced due to climate change (IPCC)
๏ Global temperature increases of 3–4°C could result in 330 million people being permanently or temporarily displaced as a result of flooding (UNDP)
๏ Migration: result of failed adaptation or legitimate coping strategy?
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Increased incidence of violent conflict
๏ Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that heightens the conditions for internal conflict, sows the seeds of instability in already volatile regions, and increases the likelihood of failed states.
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Damage to infrastructure and utilities
๏ Slow and rapid climate impacts destroys assets and infrastructure
๏ Public utilities can be severely undermined with impacts on long-term development
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Where are we now?
Lead (1) - Shaping policy responses:
From Kyoto to Cancun
Climate building blocks
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Kyoto
Missed opportunities and failed promises
A new beginning in Bali
Changing our perspective
All roads lead to Copenhagen
Cancun and beyond
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
The Building Blocks
๏Mitigation
๏Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)
๏Adaptation
๏Technology
๏Finance
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Renewable Energy: Co-benefits
๏GHG Reductions
๏Economic returns for those who innovate
๏Employment and local development
๏ Increased security of supply
๏Reduced emissions of other pollutants and health benefits
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
Adaptation
๏Planned versus autonomous adaptation
๏First Generation
๏Second Generation
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Technology
๏Research and innovation
๏ Investment and political will
๏Development and deployment
๏Access and supporting structures
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
๏How much is required?
๏New and additional?
๏How to generate funding?
๏How to disburse / target funding?
Finance
Estimates put the cost of climate change at between $4bn and $109bn per year (Stern 2006 / UNDP 2007)
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Finance
Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1%)Carbon TaxesGeneral taxes and specific fundsAviation / Shipping taxGHG LevyTax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)Emissions Cap and TradeAuctioning of Emissions RightsCDM and Carbon Offset Markets
Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Governanceimproved policies, processes and outcomes
“The great tragedy of sustainable development is that we have not invented a politics to go with the concept”.
James MacNeill, former Secretary General of the Brundtland Commission
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Vulnerable communities are least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with the consequences of climate change.
Scales and Principles
Global: UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap
Regional: EU and other initiatives
Local / Sub-national:Initiatives at provincial, community and household level
National:Policies at the state level
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
The Social Dimensions of Climate ChangeConcluding thoughts
Climate change impacts are already altering the context for development.
Are we ready for those changes?
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:
EQUITY
RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY
CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS
INEQUITY
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
What can you do?
Lead (2) - The Four Cs:Citizen
Consumer
Communicator
Change Agent
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
Thank you!
carina.bachofen@gmail.com
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Reconciling climate change and development
The Washington CenterWashington, DC | 6 December 2010
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