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See more details at the #CarbonFarming blog - http://carbonfarming.wordpress.com http://su.pr/AcS53u
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The Science Behind Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration?
John KadyszewskiWinrock InternationalHouston, TexasNovember 3, 2005
“The Business of Carbon Sequestration and Forestation”, Greater Houston Partnership
2©Winrock International 2005
How do Ecosystems Sequester Carbon?
Photosynthesis (P)fixes CO2
Respiration (R)releases CO2
P P
R
R
Photosynthesis exceeds respiration, resulting in storage of carbon
3©Winrock International 2005
Where is Carbon Sequestered?Live biomass• Trees• Understory• Roots
Dead biomass• Standing• Down
• Coarse• Fine
Wood productsSoil
“Carbon Pools”
4©Winrock International 2005
At What Rate Does Carbon Accumulate?
Photosynthesis (P)fixes CO2
Respiration (R)releases CO2
P P
R
R
1-5 t C/ha.yr
0.1-0.5 t C/ha.yr
5©Winrock International 2005
What is a Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Project?
Project-based carbon benefits are the difference between the selected “carbon pools” in the with-project and without-project cases
6©Winrock International 2005
Terrestrial Sequestration Options
Afforestation
Change inTillage
GrasslandRestoration
Agricultural Land
Afforestation
ChangeManagement
GrasslandRestoration
Grazing Land
Extend Rotation
Change Species
ChangeManagement
Conservation
Forest Land
Risks
Co-Benefits
Accessory Data
State
7©Winrock International 2005
AfforestationConvert agricultural or grazing land back to forest• Return to native
forest• Convert to forest land
for timber production
Mixed ConifersSource: Tim Pearson, Winrock International
8©Winrock International 2005
Afforestation
Convert to forest land with fast-growing species
Source: Jon Johnson, Washington State University
Hybrid Poplar 28 years old 110 feet tall 32 in. dbh
9©Winrock International 2005
Growth Rates for Trees
Douglas Fir 4 dry t/acre/yr ~50 year rotation
Hybrid Poplar 10 dry t/acre/yr 6-8 year rotation
Source: Jon Johnson Associate Professor Washington State University
9 years diameter growth
10©Winrock International 2005
Conserve ForestsStop forest conversion to non-forestLongleaf pine (120 year old forest)• 174 tC/ha
Redwood (150 year old forest)• 478 tC/ha
Source: Tim Pearson, Winrock International
11©Winrock International 2005
Winrock Carbon Measurement #1Classify land area into strata with similar characteristicsCollect ground data to determine variability within each strata Insert ground data into Spatial Information Package Set number of permanent plots needed to achieve target level of precision
12©Winrock International 2005
Winrock Carbon Measurement #2Prepare Standard Operating ProceduresRecommend frequency of monitoringDevise Quality Assurance/ Quality Control PlanDetermine need for compliance monitoringPrepare plan for archiving data
13©Winrock International 2005
Accuracy and PrecisionStatistical samplingReport results with error barsTrade-off between cost and precision• Expected variability affects number of plots • Fixed and variable costs• Different project classes have different
measurement costs
14©Winrock International 2005
Establish Permanent Plots
Each plot is permanently marked and georeferenced.
15©Winrock International 2005
Measure Aboveground BiomassMeasure diameter at breast height for all trees within the boundaries of the permanent plot – carbon estimated from regression equations
16©Winrock International 2005
Measuring Understory and Fine Litter
Use clip plots (60 cm diameter frame) to sample herbaceous vegetation and litter within the permanent plotCollect total fresh weight and dry a sub-sample to calculate dry biomass
17©Winrock International 2005
Measuring Dead WoodFor standing dead trees estimate biomass using regression equations or volume from detailed measurementsUse line intersect method for lying dead wood
Sample dead wood for density estimate
18©Winrock International 2005
Sampling Soils for Organic Carbon
Photo by Matt Delaney
Collect one sample for bulk density
Photo by Matt Delaney
Photo by André Ferreti
Collect 4 samples, mix well and sieve through 2 mm meshscreen
Expose mineral soil surfaceDig 30 cm x 30 cm pit or take soil core
Air dry (not in direct sun) and send to lab for C analysis
19©Winrock International 2005
Cinergy Entergy
Reducing Measurement Costs
Aerial Measurements
21©Winrock International 2005
Aerial Measurements Using High Resolution 3D Imagery
22©Winrock International 2005
Aerial Sample Plots
23©Winrock International 2005
Labor Needed for Aerial vs Field Plots
Step M3DADI approach Conventional field approach
Prepare the plane and collect imagery
24 --
Processing the imagery or field data†
65 0.13
Collect and record plot measurements-time per plot
0.71 3.4
Enter data into spreadsheets-time per plot
0.25 0.75
Estimated total time to sample 202 plots* 283 865
24©Winrock International 2005
Project Issues
BaselinesLeakage Reversibility (Permanence)• Duration• Risk of LossAdditionalityMeasurement and Monitoring
25©Winrock International 2005
Can these activities make a difference?Global estimates of the potential amount of land available and potential amount of C that could be sequestered and conserved by forest management practices on this land between 1995 to 2050. Latitudinal Practice Area C sequestered belt (Mha) & conserved (billion tons) Boreal Forestation 95 2.4 Temperate Forestation 113 11.8 Agroforestry 7 0.7 14 Tropics Forestation 67 16.4 Agroforestry 63 6.3 Regeneration 217 11.5-28.7 Slow deforestation 138 10.8-20.8 46-73 Total 700 60-87
*The amount of C conserved and sequestered here is equivalent to 12-15% of the business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions over the same time period
From Brown et al. 1996, Second Assessment Report of IPCC; Kauppi and Sedjo 2000, Third Assessment Report, IPCC
26©Winrock International 2005
Multiple Additional Environmental Benefits
WatershedIntegrity
WaterQuality
ReducedNon-Point
Water
Reduced Costfor Insurance
Reduced FloodDamage
ReducedNon-Point
Flood Control
EndangeredSpecies
Parks andReserves
Wetlands
Streams
ExpandedHabitat
Biodiversity
Non-timberforest products
Tourism
ForestProducts
WaterSupply
New IncomeSources
Co-Benefits
DOE Regional Partnership
Preliminary results from “Carbon Supply from Sequestration Activities on Agriculture and Forest Lands for SECARB Partnership”, Winrock International, September 2005.
28©Winrock International 2005
Potential Terrestrial Carbon Supply from Afforestation in SECARB Region
00$2.40 per metric ton CO2
0.045$2.40 per metric ton CO2
27.33485$20 per metric ton CO2
24.43277$10 per metric ton CO2
Grazing land afforestation28.03881$20 per metric ton CO2
7.71128$10 per metric ton CO2
Crop land afforestation
Million acresMillion t CO2Activity after 40 years
29©Winrock International 2005
Potential C Supply (t Carbon) by County for Afforestation after 40 yr
< 1,000,0001,000,001 - 2,000,0002,000,001 - 3,000,0003,000,001 - 4,000,0004,000,001 - 5,000,0005,000,001 - 6,000,0006,000,001 - 7,000,0007,000,001 - 8,000,0008,000,001 - 9,000,000> 9,000,001
t Carbon
Croplands Grazing lands
30©Winrock International 2005
Potential C supply ($/t C) for afforestation after 40 yr
< $30.00$30.01 - $50.00$50.01 - $70.00$70.01 - $90.00$90.01 - $110.00$110.01 - $130.00$130.01 - $150.00$150.01 - $170.00$170.01 - $190.00> $190.01
Croplands Grazing lands
Divide $/t C by 3.67 to get $/t CO2
31©Winrock International 2005
Options for Cofiring BiomassBlend biomass with coal on the conveyor belt and feed through the pulverizer– estimated cost $100-200/kw• Limited to < 3% heat from biomass except
with cyclone boilers that could blend up to 10%
Retrofit to add biomass-only injection point – estimated cost $200-300/kw
32©Winrock International 2005
Potential Terrestrial Sequestration
20 yrs – 5.7 M tons40 yrs – 17.0 M tons
20 yrs – 3.5 M tons40 yrs – 10.5 M tons
20 yrs – 2.1 M tons40 yrs – 6.3 M tons
Change in Carbon Stocks
113,000 acres
565,000 MT80 MW
70,600 acres
353,000 MT50 MW
42,000 acres
212,000 MT30 MW
Land Required
Biomass Fuel Required
Power Output
-- Assuming Heat Rate of 11,000 BTU/kWh and Capacity Factor 80%-- Assuming conversion to forest with 20 or 40 year rotations
33©Winrock International 2005
Land Requirements~ 5 million acres available within 50 miles
20 yrs – $20.9 Million40 yrs – $62.3Million
~2.3%113,000 acres
20 yrs – $12.8 Million40 yrs – $38.5 Million
~1.4%70,600 acres
20 yrs – $7.7 Million40 yrs – $23.1 Million
< 1 %42,000 acres
Carbon Sequestration Value at $2/MT CO2
PercentageLand Required
34©Winrock International 2005
Carbon Price: Dollars per Hectare -- 40 Years
35©Winrock International 2005
Environmental BenefitsCarbon benefits• Displace coal -- annual benefit• Stimulate changes in land use that result
in higher average carbon stocks
Can reduce NOx emissionsBiomass usually has no sulfur or mercuryLow ash and less particulates
36©Winrock International 2005
SummaryTerrestrial carbon sequestration projects can be measured accurately at low costNew aerial methods will reduce costs furtherAfforestation is the largest option available in the SE region of the USCo-firing biomass fuels with coal could produce significant emission reductions
37©Winrock International 2005
Questions or Comments:
John KadyszewskiWinrock International
(703) 525-9430,ext 618Jkadyszewski@winrock.org
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