The Disruptive Potential of GIS 2.0

The Disruptive Potential of GIS 2.0

Joshua S. Campbell

Association of American Geographers (AAG) Conference, Las Vegas

March 24, 2009

Outline Open Source Paradigm Shift

FOSS4G

Web 2.0

GIS 2.0

Disruptive Innovation theory

Humanitarian Information Management

Goals New Breed of GIS

Open Source is making GIS a commodity

Where does value migrate? / What is still ‘not-good-enough’?

Jobs-based approach to humanitarian information Value of GIS 2.0

Distributed data collection Data identification and dissemination

Open Source Paradigm Shift (O’Reilly 2005)

Open Source as field of scientific and economic inquiry

‘Paradigm shifts’ as revolutionary processes in science

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn 1962)

Understanding this paradigm shift, and its implications, requires Disruptive Innovation theory

Open Source Paradigm Shift

Impacts of FOSS have already happened…

Can be applied to open source GIS

FOSS4G

Free and Open Source Software for Geospatial

FOSS4G = Open Source + GIS

Represents a philosophical approach to software freedom and a collaborative software development environment

What is Web 2.0?

“a transformative force that’s compelling companies across all industries towards a new way of doing business characterized by harnessing collective intelligence, openness, and network effects”

--Tim O’Reilly

What is Web 2.0?

Developed in the last five years

Services enabled by FOSS

Who uses Linux? How about Google?

Again, an application of Disruptive Innovation theory Value migration

What is a GIS?

A digital representation of the earth, structured to support analysis

(Dobson, 2007)

Automated systems for the collection, storage, retrieval, analysis, and display of spatial data

(Clarke, 1995)

Should also include dissemination

GIS 2.0: A Reformulation

Free and Open Source Software

Web 2.0 philosophy collective intelligence, network effects, openness

Open Standards Interoperability

GIS 2.0: A Reformulation

Ubiquitous communication

Device convergence

Cloud computing

Disruptive Innovation (DI)

‘Disruption is a theory: a conceptual model of cause and effect that makes it possible to better predict the outcomes of competitive battles in different circumstances’

-- The Innovators Solution

User expectations increase over time

A product at its introduction is below user expectations

A product at its introduction is below user expectations

Over time, its features increase faster than expectations

A product at its introduction is below user expectations

Over time, its features increase faster than expectations

At some point, a products featuresbecome more than the majority of users needs

A product at its introduction is below user expectations

Over time, its features increase faster than expectations

At some point, a products featuresbecome more than the majority of users needs

This trend continuesinto the future

Underserved Market

Overserved Market

Underserved Market

Overserved Market

‘not good enough’

Competitive Advantage: -- Functionality -- Reliability

Driven by an integratedproduct architecture

‘good enough’

Competitive Advantage: -- Speed -- Convenience -- Responsiveness

Driven by a modularproduct architecture

GIS Market

ESRI products have exceeded the tipping point

GIS 2.0 has less features than ArcGIS….

but that only matters to the highest tiers of the marketplace

GIS 2.0 is both a Low-End and New Market Disruption

DI: Intrinsic to Open Source

Modular product architecture enables the group collaboration development environment

Modular product architecture begins a process of commoditization

Commoditization leads to a migration of value in the system

DI: Commoditization

Value migrates to adjacent tiers of the product stack

To the tiers that are ‘not good enough’

Determining what is ‘not good enough’ is relative

What job is the product being hired for?

GIS 2.0: Jobs-based approach Humanitarian Information Unit

Identifies key sources of geospatial and georeferenced data

Collects timely, verifiable, and relevant data

Analyzes data determine significant trends and relationships;

Disseminates information of value to all levels of consumers, from national-level policymakers to operational field managers

Humanitarian Information Marketplace = Overserved

DI: ROI is measured in social good

How can DI be adapted for situations where the Return On Investment is measured in social good?

Answer: Catalytic Innovation They create systemic social change through scaling and

replication.

They meet a need that is either over served (because the existing solution is more complex than many people require) or not served at all.

They offer products and services that are simpler and less costly than existing alternatives and may be perceived as having a lower level of performance, but users consider them to be good enough.

GIS 2.0: Collection

Widespread cellular networks: SMS

Ushahidi and InSTEDD

Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI)

Cloud storage and processing

GIS 2.0: Dissemination

Multiple tiers of users

Web mapping applications

.

GeoCommons Finder!

GIS 2.0: Conclusion

The Open Source Paradigm Shift is just beginning in the GIS world…

The value of GIS 2.0 tools for humanitarian information management will continue to increase

Joshua S. Campbell jsc1@ku.edu