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Smart Reinvestment:The Case for Conversion Attribution23 August 2012
Yossi Synett – Research Analytics Team Lead
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Agenda
History of Attribution
Reinvestment = Attribution
Types of Attribution Models
Viewing Data via Different Models
How to choose the right model
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History of Conversion Attribution
4
The early days of PPC
2002 AdWords goes to PPC Model
2003 Yahoo! buys Overture
5
The assumption: One Conversion = One Click
6
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size Available
T-shirt.com
Keyword 3
Last Click Attribution Model:•Solves conversion duplication issue•Assumes last click is most important
Discovering the need for conversion attribution
77
Reinvestment = Conversion Attribution
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Reinvestment based on data
All strategic decisions in Paid Search are based on data
Forecasting & Scenarios
Algorithm Configuration
Algorithm Selection
Geographies
Devices
Sites and Content
Campaign Structure
Ad Copy & Testing
Keyword Selection
Attribution Model
Multi-Channel Data Connections
Multi-Source Data Reconciliation
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GroovyTravel.com investment strategy (with last touch attribution)
cheap flights to Mexico GroovyTravel.com
ROAS = 0.83 ROAS = 5
Total ROAS = 1.88
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GroovyTravel.com investment strategy (with last touch attribution)
cheap flights to Mexico GroovyTravel.com
ROAS = 0.9 ROAS = 2
Total ROAS = 1.63
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GroovyTravel.com path to conversion
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GroovyTravel.com investment strategy (with divide equally attribution)
cheap flights to Mexico GroovyTravel.com
ROAS = 1.54 ROAS = 2.88
Total ROAS = 1.88
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GroovyTravel.com investment strategy (with divide equally attribution)
cheap flights to Mexico GroovyTravel.com
ROAS = 1.38 ROAS = 2.33
Total ROAS = 1.64
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Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
16
Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
17
Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
• Distribute Evenly
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
18
Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
• Distribute Evenly
• Prefer First
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
19
Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
• Distribute Evenly
• Prefer First
• First Only
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
2020
Types of Attribution
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Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
Industry Default Model
Attribution Models: Last click
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Attribution Models: Linear
Attribution Models
Linear Ratio
U Shaped
Distribute Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
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Attribution Models: Non Linear
Attribution Models
Linear Ratio
U Shaped
Distribute Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
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Attribution Models: Distribute evenly
Attribution Models
Linear Ratio
U Shaped
Distribute Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
25
Attribution Models: Single Point
Attribution Models
Linear Ratio
U Shaped
Distribute Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
2626
Viewing Data via Different Models
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Considering multiple channels using the Kenshoo Attribution Model Simulator
Leading pet supply cataloger using last touch attribution
Brought data from various channels (e-mail, CSE, display) into Kenshoo
Using the Kenshoo Attribution Model Simulator, they were able see the best and worst case ROI for a given channel under different models
They could also determine which model was the best fit for their business by seeing how different channels would benefit or lose from changing models
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Case Study: Moving away from last click
U.S. national service center chain increases ROI by changing attribution model following a multi-model attribution analysis//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Key Lessons
• Different regions have different behaviors
• Last click model was holding back potential new to file customers
• Prefer last model better allocated money
2929
How to choose the right model
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Get insights
• Any single model will only show a single viewpoint, compare different models for the most comprehensive view
• Lower costs by pruning ads that have no touch-points in any conversion attribution model
• Expand assisting keywords to find new traffic generators and widen you market reach
• Don’t miss the forest for the trees, apply real world categories and use your own business logic to make attribution model decisions
❙[Don’t worry, Kenshoo can help with this]
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Thank you
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