Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm

Water Land EcosystemHigh level dialogueNew Delhi

3rd May 2013

Prof. Johan RockströmStockholm Resilience Centre

Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development:

The scientific support for a new paradigm

2 Photos: Mattias Klum

3 - 6 - 9A Biosphere Shaped by Humanity

Growing Human Pressure[20/80 dilemma]

Climate change[560/450/400 dilemma]

Surprise[99/1 dilemma]

Ecosystem decline[60 % loss dilemma]

Global Freshwater Resources

23-04-12 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre

Humanity has reached a planetary saturation

point

The Human ability to do has vastly outstripped our

ability to understand

A resilient biosphere the basis for humen

development

Fierce urgency of now

A great transformation to global sustainability

necessary, possible, and desirable

Goal 1: Ending Extreme Poverty

Goal 2: Achieving Development within Planetary Boundaries

Goal 3: Achieve Gender Equality, Human Rights and the Rule of Law

Goal 4: Achieving Food Security and Rural Prosperity

Goal 5: Empowering Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities

Goal 6: Achieving Health and Wellbeing at all Ages

Goal 7: Ensure Effective Learning for Every Child for Life and Livelihood

Goal 8: Curbing Human-Induced Climate Change

Goal 9: Securing Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity

Goal 10: Transforming Governance for Sustainable Development

…

Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475

Global fresh-water use

Transgressing safe boundaries

Global water resources in the Anthropocene

IPCC AR4 Scenario, Mean deviation (%) 2080-2099, ensemble models

Social futures 20507000 > 9000 km3/yr

Hansen et al 2012

Extreme weather events more common, with larger social and economic impacts, coupled to human induced climate change

Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters

Food production to increase by ~70 % by 2050 to eradicate hunger on a planet with ~9 billion people (IIASTD 2009)

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

1960

1970

1980

1990

2002

2015

2030

2050

year

km3

0

100

200

300

1960

1970

1980

1990

2002

2015

2030

2050

Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015

2002 base line

The MDG Water Challenge

In the search of a new paradigm

For Sustainable IntensificationOf Agriculture for Human

Prosperity

Mats Lannerstad et al., in Prep

Green-Blue resources for sustainable development

100%100%

60%60%

40%40%GLOBAL

INDIA

KENYA

Dependence on green and blue water 2000

114

654

1080

239

787

1505

1692

907

219

Comprehensive Assessment 2007

Critical transitions or regime shiftsRegime shifts are substantial, persistent,

reorganizations in ecosystem structure and processes

Diverse Coral dominated

Algae Dominated Reef

Parkland Savanna Bush steppe

Agricultural Modification of ‘Green’ (ET) water flows

Irrigation + 1800-2500 km3/yr

Deforestation - 3000 km3/yr

Gordon et al. 2005, 2008

Total ET roughly 67000 km3/yr

Monsoon collapse

Savannisation

Dry savanna – wet savanna

Moisture feedback critical for rainfall

Operationalising a Paradigm Shift

Elements of a Paradigm Shift

• Integrated reform of irrigated and rainfed agriculture (participation; watershed management; blue-green integration)

• Nexus approach to land-water-ecosystems; agriculture-energy-water

• Landscape and water restoration• Rural water and sanitation – resource reuse• Water and wastewater use • Integated land, water ecoystem management• Institution reform (national water framework)

IrrigatedRainfed

A triply Green Revolution– 2-3 X production– Social-Ecological Resilience– Green water management

Meeting the Global food challenge

Strategies to upgrade rainfed agriculture

• Increase Crop water uptake capaciy

• Increase Crop water Availability

Upgrading Rainfed agriculture

Smallholder Agriculture + Water =

Solutions to Rural Poverty & Hunger

www.awm-solutions.iwmi.orgwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.org

Resource Reuse and Recovery: Productive Sanitation

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Integrated Land and water resource managementPayments for Ecosystem Services

< 25%25 - 50%50 - 75%75 - 100%

Green Water CreditsTana Basin, Kenya

0 50 10025 Km

±Decrease in Erosion (%)

Improved land management practices in Agriculture has the potentialt to sequester 0.4 – 1.2 Gt C/år

(Rathan Lal, Science 2004)

Transforming Agriculture from Source to SinkCoupling land management, fertilisation and water resource management (e.g., CA, ES, WH)

A new framework for Sustainable Development

Photo Mattias Klum

Feeding the world in the Anthropocene within a safe operating space of Planetary Boundaries requires a major global transformation of Agriculture

Sustainable Intensification for food security and rural prosperity the only possible strategy

TitleOur vision:

A world in which agriculture thrives within vibrant ecosystems, where communities have higher incomes, improved food security and the ability to continuously improve their lives