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Presentation from David Soloff, CEO and Co-Founder, Premise #gigaomlive More at http://events.gigaom.com/structuredata-2014/
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Wednesday, March 26, 14
HOW MICRODATA CAN SAY A LOT ABOUT MACROECONOMICS
David SoloffPremise
Wednesday, March 26, 14
DAVID SOLOFF@davidsoloff
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Wednesday, March 26, 14
“—no, a dreary, desolate and, indeed, quite abject and distressing one; what we might call, by way of eminence, the dismal science.”
— Thomas Carlyle
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Wednesday, March 26, 14
Mikro Data
& Makro
Economics
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"There's still a Cold War element to our statistics. We're kind of in a holding pattern. In many situations I found myself wishing we had more current data and broader data."
— Alan Krueger
http://on.wsj.com/1ggFq9c
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Wednesday, March 26, 14
January 2007
September 2007
February 2008
March 2008
April 2008
Mexico: “Tortilla Riots”
West Bengal: Riots over food shortages and public corruption
Cameroon: High fuel and food prices
Senegal: Protests over high cost of living
Haiti: Riots over rising food prices
Yemen: Riots as price of wheat doubles, rice + vegetables up 20%
Egypt: Riots over the price of bread
November 2008 China: Contaminated milk due to high cattle feed prices
October 2007 Russia: Gov’t pressures food producers to freeze prices
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Food prices and the incidence of violence in Africa [van Weezel 2013]
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Mar May Jul Sep Nov
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
China − CPI (Official)Premise − Food Staples Index
Granger Causality: 0.94Correlation: 0.93
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
India − CPI (Official)Premise − Food Staples Index
Granger Causality: 0.81Correlation: 0.89
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there are too many strata to measure everything
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“You need to focus on quality. You’ll be better off with a small but carefully structured sample rather than a large sloppy sample.”
— Hal Varian
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@premisedata
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Wednesday, March 26, 14
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