Richard Hopkirk, McLaren Automotive en el SAP CIO Summit México

Decision Making At 200mph

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Prescriptive detailed objectives

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Finger-Pointing

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Your TaskHaving Qualified On The Front Row, Win The Brazilian GP

At Your DisposalThe Fastest Race Car

A World Champion Race DriverA Lot Of Data

71 Laps Of Uncertainty

Pre-Race

Qualifying Positions & Pace

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

Und

erly

ing

Qua

lifyi

ng P

ace

(s)

10 places in 1.03s = 103ms / place

Pre-Race Data- Pace

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

104%

105%

106%

Red Bull McLaren Ferrari Mercedes Lotus Force India Sauber Toro RossoWilliams Caterham HRT Marussia

Lapt

ime

(% o

f Fas

test

)

Race Pace Prediction

Driver A Driver B

Pre-Race Data – Tyre Degredation - UPDATE

New PrimegfedcbUsed OptiongfedcbNew Optiongfedcb

Run Lap39373533312927252321191715131197531

Race Lap39373533312927252321191715131197531

Degra

ded T

ime L

oss P

er

Lap / s

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Pre-Race Data– Race Simulations – Example

L70L60L50L40L30L20L10L0

Tim

e G

ap

(se

con

ds)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

1:VET (3rd)

2:WEB (1st)3:BUT (2nd)

4:HAM

8:ROS (5th)

9:RAI

15:PER18:MAL (4th)

5:ALO (7th)

6:MAS (9th)

8:ROS (5th)

12:HUL (6th)

19:SEN (8th)7:MSC (12th)

10:GRO (13th)

11:DIR (10th)

16:RIC (14th)

17:VER (11th)

16:RIC (14th)

20:KOV (15th)

25:PIC

21:PET (17th)

24:GLO (16th)

14:KOB (18th)

23:KAR (19th)

22:DLR (20th)

Used OptionUsed Option

New Prime

Used Optio

n

Used Optio

n

Used O

ption

New Prime

Used Option

Used Option

New Prime

Used Option

New PrimeUsed Option

Used Option

Used Option

Used Option

New Prime

New Option

Used Option

New Prime

New Prime

New Option

New Option

Used Option

Used Option

New OptionNew Option

Used Option

New Prime

New Prime

New Option

New Prime

New Option

New

Prime

00:05 00:15 00:25 00:35 00:45 00:55 01:05 01:15 01:25

Pre-Race Data – Optimal First Stop Lap - Update

5 10 15 20 25 30

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Location of FIRST Stop

Exp

ecte

d N

umbe

r of

poi

nts

UO-NP-NP

UO-NP-UO

UO-UO-NPUO-NP-NP-NP

UO-UO-UO-NP

Pre-Race Data- Weather - Update

Lap 10

L70L60L50L40L30L20L10L0

Tim

e G

ap

(se

con

ds)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

1:VET (6th)

2:WEB (19th)

3:BUT (1st)4:HAM (3rd)

5:ALO (4th)

6:MAS (5th)

8:ROS (17th)

9:RAI (15th)

10:GRO

11:DIR (7th)

12:HUL (2nd)

14:KOB (16th)

16:RIC (18th)

17:VER (8th)

18:MAL

20:KOV (9th)21:PET (11th)22:DLR (12th)23:KAR (14th)24:GLO (10th)25:PIC (13th)

7:MSC

U Optio

n

U Option

U O

ptio

n

U Option

U Opt

ion

U OptionN PrimeU OptionU Option

N Inter

N PrimeN Option U O

ption

N PrimeN Option

N Option

N Option

U OptionN OptionN Option

14:05 14:15

Lap 10 Situation - UPDATE

• Rain Intensified After Lap 5

• Other Cars Started Pitting For Wets

• Grosjean crashed• Jenson overtook

Lewis

Lap 10 Data – Weather - Update

Lap 10 Data – Pace Vs OthersInterlagos - Race

Lap Number13121110987654321

Sec

tor

Su

m

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

88

86

84

82

80

Lap 10 Circuit Overview

Lap 10 Summary

• Weather – Raining• Pace – Faster Than Everyone Except Those On Inters• Track Position – Shows You’ll Drop 4 Places If You Pit• Choice:

– Pit and risk having to pit again, losing 40s to those who stay out.

– Stay out and risk a sudden increase in rain, losing 20s those who pitted and changed to inters before you did.

• Driver Feedback – Car OK, Rain Easing

L70L60L50L40L30L20L10L0

Tim

e G

ap

(se

con

ds)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

1:VET (5th)

2:WEB (7th)

3:BUT (1st)

4:HAM (3rd)

5:ALO (4th)

8:ROS (8th)

10:GRO

11:DIR (9th)

12:HUL (2nd)

14:KOB (6th)

16:RIC (10th)

18:MAL

6:MAS (12th)

7:MSC (20th)

8:ROS (8th)

9:RAI (11th)

11:DIR (9th)16:RIC (10th)

17:VER (14th)

20:KOV (16th)

21:PET (15th)

22:DLR (19th)

23:KAR (18th)

24:GLO (13th)

25:PIC (17th)

U Option

N Inte

rU Option

N Inter

U Opt

ion

U Option

N Inter

U Opti

on

N Inter

U Option

N Prime

N InterN Inter

N Prime

N Option

N Inter

U Opt

ion

N Prime

N Inter

N Option

N Inter

N OptionN OptionN Option

U O

ptionU OptionN Option

N Option

14:05 14:15 14:25

Outcome – Lap 18

• Jenson and Hulkenberg Stayed Out

• All Other Cars Pitted For Inters• Rain Eased So Now Other Cars

Must Pit Again• You’re Now Effectively 40s

Ahead Of Everyone

Lap 18

Lap 21 Summary

• Weather – Dry• Tyres – Old, everyone else newer.• Safety car deployed – about to lose the gap behind

you anyway.

• Decision - Pit and put on new dry tyres. It’s a free pitstop with no position lost.

• Cars form up behind the safety car – and the race restarts on lap 30.

Lap 29 Track Positions

Lap 54

L70L60L50L40L30L20L10L0

Tim

e G

ap

(se

con

ds)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

1:VET (9th)2:WEB (7th)

3:BUT (3rd)

4:HAM (1st)

5:ALO (4th)

6:MAS (5th)

7:MSC (10th)

9:RAI (14th)10:GRO11:DIR (8th)

12:HUL (2nd)

14:KOB (6th)

16:RIC (13th)

17:VER (11th)

18:MAL

25:PIC (12th)

8:ROS (18th)

16:RIC (13th)

20:KOV (16th)21:PET (15th)

22:DLR (19th)

23:KAR (20th)

24:GLO (17th)

25:PIC (12th)

U Option

N In

ter

N Prime

U O

ptio

n N Inter

U Prime

U O

ptio

n

N Prime

U O

ptio

n

N Inter

N Prime

U O

ptio

n

N Inte

r

U Option

U Option

N Inter

U Option

N Prime

U Option

N Inter

N Prime

U Option

N Inte

r

U Option

N Option

N Inter

U O

ptio

n

N Prim

e

N Prime

N Inter

N Prime

N Option

N Inter

N Prime

N Optio

n

N Inter

N PrimeN Option

U Option

N PrimeN Option

N Inter

N P

rime

U Option

U O

ption

U Optio

n

N Prime

N Opt

ion

N In

ter

N PrimeN Option

U Option

14:05 14:15 14:25 14:35 14:45 14:55 15:05 15:15

Lap 54 Situation

• Has been dry since safety car has come in.

• Lewis has overaken Jenson and Hulkenberg to take the lead.

• Rain is starting to fall again.

Lap 55 Track Positions - UPDATE

• Position, SC gap etc

Lap 54 Data – Weather - Update

Lap 55 Data - PaceInterlagos - Race

Time of Day15:2515:2015:15

Se

cto

r S

um

100

95

90

85

80

Inter Tyres

Wet Tyres

Lap 55 Summary

• Weather – Raining Again• Pace – Faster Than Everyone Except Those On Inters• Track Position – You’ll Drop 1-2 Places If You Pit• Choice:

– Pit and risk having to pit again, losing 40s to those who stay out.

– Stay out and risk a sudden increase in rain, losing 20s those who pitted and changed to inters before you did.

• Driver Feedback?

L70L60L50L40L30L20L10L0

Tim

e G

ap

(se

con

ds)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-401:VET (6th)

2:WEB (4th)

3:BUT (1st)

4:HAM

5:ALO (2nd)

6:MAS (3rd)10:GRO

12:HUL (5th)

18:MAL

7:MSC (7th)

9:RAI (11th)

11:DIR (9th)

14:KOB (8th)

16:RIC (14th)

17:VER (10th)

21:PET (12th)25:PIC (13th)

8:ROS (16th)20:KOV (15th)

22:DLR (18th)

24:GLO (17th)

23:KAR (19th)

4:HAM

U Option

N Inter

N Prime

N Inter

U Option

N Inter

U Prime

N Inter

U Optio

n

N Prime

N Inter

U OptionN Inter

N Prim

e

U Optio

n

N Inter

U Option

N Inter

U Option

U Option

N InterN Prime

N Prime

N Inter

U Option

N Inter

N Prime

N Inter

U Option

N Prime

N Option

N Inter

N Prime

U Option

N Prime

U InterN Prime

N Inter

N Prime

N Inter

N Option

N Inter

N OptionN Prime

N Option

U Option

N Prime

N PrimeU

Option

U Option

U Option

N Prime

N Option

N Prime

N Option

U Option

14:05 14:15 14:25 14:35 14:45 14:55 15:05 15:15 15:25 15:35

Lap 69

• Jenson drove that inlap 5 seconds faster than his nearest rival.

• Call to pit was correct – rain continued.

• Hulkenberg suffered a drive-through.

• Jenson is 18s clear of the pack in the lead.

The Win

Pic of Jenson

Thankyou