Qualitative Legal Prediction - Prof. Daniel Katz

Quantitative Legal Prediction( Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and

Embrace Disruptive Technology)

Daniel Martin KatzMichigan State University - College of Law

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law

(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law

(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution

(3) Prediction

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law

(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution

(3) Prediction

(4) Mental Models v. Aggregation

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law

(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution

(3) Prediction

(4) Mental Models v. Aggregation

(5) Quantitative Legal Prediction

This is the Era of “Big Data”

This is the Era of “Big Data”

Increasing Computing Power

This is the Era of “Big Data”

Increasing Computing Power

This is the Era of “Big Data”

Decreasing Data Storage Costs

Increasing Computing Power

This is the Era of “Big Data”

Decreasing Data Storage Costs

Increasing Computing Power

This is the Era of “Big Data”

Decreasing Data Storage Costs

Increasing Computing Power

Fundamentally Altering the Scope of Scientific Inquiry

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2008

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2008

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2008 2009

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2008 2009

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2008 2009 2010

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2011

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2011

Highlighting the Data Deluge

2011 2011

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Okay But ...

Data is only half the story

Computationand

Artificial Intelligence

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

An Meaningful ‘Soft’ AI Example

E-Discovery

Some Applicable Terms

Natural Language Processing

Natural Language Processing

Knowledge Representation

Natural Language Processing

Knowledge Representation

Feature Extraction

Natural Language Processing

Knowledge Representation

Feature Selection

Feature Extraction

Natural Language Processing

Knowledge Representation

Machine Learning

Feature Selection

Feature Extraction

Natural Language Processing

Knowledge Representation

Machine Learning

Feature Selection

Feature Extraction

Classification

Natural Language Processing

Clustering

Knowledge Representation

Machine Learning

Feature Selection

Feature Extraction

Classification

Prediction

A Few Words About Prediction

Imagine Two DifferentComplex Systems

Weather

Tides

vs.

Easy/ Predictable Difficult / Chaotic

vs.

Easy/ Predictable Difficult / Chaotic

vs.

Easy/ Predictable Difficult / Chaotic

The Caliber of Prediction is

A Function of Various Factors

Including ...

Underlying System

Variability

Quality of Inputs

Etc.

Formal Treatment of the question of

prediction in alternative Domains

Quantitative Legal

Prediction

It Already Exists ...

This is a Great Example

But What Does the Market Really Care About?

Disputes v. Decisions

Disputes, Filings, etc.

Bargaining in the Shadow of the Law

What is the Client’s First Question?

do i have a case?

how is that assessment generated?

Mental Models vs

Aggregated Data

lots of factors matter

Time Scales Matter

inherent system variability matters

‘complexity’ matters

Some Potential Inputs

what is the relevant information contained

therein?

text, citations, votes, etc.

other metadata

what form might the outputs take?

standard client memo

+

statistical portrait of 10,000 ‘similar’ cases

How do we assess similarity?

Analogical Reasoning and the Science of Similarity

similarity measures

=~distance measures

developing these distance functions

is an important part of my research

just one example ...

Six Degrees of Marbury v. Madison A Sink Based Visualization

Some Additional Thoughts

Study of Law Can Be a Scientific Exercise

The Practice of Law Can be Closer to Engineering

The Market for Legal Services

The Market for Legal Education

Have a Date With Destiny

Some Reading For Your Consideration

@computational

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