Pushing the Bottleneck: Predicting and Addressing the Next, Next Thing

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Finding bottlenecks in our software delivery processes is often pretty easy. But once we squash one bottleneck, another team becomes the limiting factor. This presentation looks how bottlenecks work, and how to predict the next bottleneck you'll need to work on.

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Pushing the bottleneck

Predicting what will break next in your SDLC

Lead Consultant & Tech Evangelist

Eric is Lead Consultant at IBM UrbanCode Products where I help customers get the most out of their build, deploy and release processes.

Today he works with customers and industry leaders to figure out this DevOps thing.

Eric Minickeminick@us.ibm.com@EricMinick

The plan

Theory of constraints in a nutshell

Finding bottlenecks

Predicting the next bottleneck

Common bottleneck pushing patterns

Q&A

Theory of constraints in a nutshell

A bottleneck is a constraint

Maximum pouring speed

Only by increasing flow through the constraint can overall throughput be increased*

Making the bottlewide down here does

not help

* The Goal: a process of ongoing improvement. Goldratt eta al

Optimize at your constraint

Can pour faster now

Your system must have a measureable goal

My goal is to empty a wine bottle quickly

Simplified five step plan

1. Identify the system’s most severe constraint

2. Decide how to get the most out of the constraint

3. Subordinate everything else to the above constraint

4. Make changes to expand constraint’s capacity

5. Once constraint is relieved, return to step 1

Example: Slow QA cycles

1. Identify the system’s most severe constraint

2. Decide how to get the most out of the constraint

3. Subordinate everything else to the above constraint

4. Make changes to expand constraint’s capacity

5. Once constraint is relieved, return to step 1

1. It takes too long to test our changes. Everyone else waits

2. Testers should focus on exploratory testing

3. Devs help with regression tests. Ops prioritizes QA.

4. Dev & QA work together to automate regression tests

5. Find the next bottleneck

Wait, what’s our goal in software?

Generally: turn ideas into business value

Measuring “business value” hard

Emptying wine bottles only relevant if dev speed is the constraint and you believe in the Ballmer Peak (http://xkcd.com/323/)

Wait, what’s our goal in software?

Generally: turn ideas into business value

Measuring “business value” hard

Features delivered minus bugs is a decent approximation

– …but rewards building useless features.

Emptying wine bottles only relevant if dev speed is the constraint and you believe in the Ballmer Peak (http://xkcd.com/323/)

Three key measures

Lag time: how long from idea to value?

Throughput: how much delivered value per unit time?

Cost: what does it cost to deliver value?

Finding the bottlenecks

Most teams can feel the constraint

What are you waiting on?

Where’s the pain?

Constraints before you in a process feel like not enough

work.

Constraints after you in a process are annoying or

painful

If it hurts, do it more often

Painful processes often grow exponentially worse with large batch sizes.

Examples

– Integration work

– Releases

– Bug Triage

– Updating databases

– Visiting the dentist

http://martinfowler.com/bliki/FrequencyReducesDifficulty.html

Time between doing it

Pain

Use Lean techniques to measure

What does it take to get a change from idea to production?

–At each phase measure wait time and work time

Long wait times indicate large batch sizes or backlogs

image credits: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diagram_spaghetti_kilka_produktow.PNGhttp://www.michaelnygard.com/blog/2008/02/outrunning_your_headlights.html

Manual fix & verify spaghetti

Bug fix & verify value stream

720

3600

240

2880

720

3600

240

15

15

120

60

15

15

60

Waiting Working

12000 300

1. Feature build

2. Build deployed

3. Bug reported

4. Dev fixes

5. Fix built

6. Fix deployed

7. Tester verifies

Seeing the “next” bottleneck

QA Scenario

Dev Produces a nightly build

Twice weekly, 2 hour deploy

to Test Lab

3 Days to test each drop

Constraint

Dev produces a nightly build

Twice weekly, 2

hour deploy to Test Lab

1.5 Days to test each drop

If we improve test speed, our constraint moves.

New Constraint

Examining a constraint

• Manual process• Limited staff• Production releases have priority

Why can we only deploy twice a week to QA?

Tackling the constraint

• Manual process• Limited staff• Production releases have priority

Why can we only deploy twice a week to QA?

• Automate processes• Hire more staff• Prioritize QA Releases

Options

Imagine a 1 day test cycle

Dev produces a nightly build

2 hour deploy to Test Lab

1.0 Days to test each

drop

¼ day deploy downtime becomes turns 1 day test cycle into two days.

Next Constraint

Tackling the constraint

• Manual process• Limited staff• Production releases have priority

Why can we only deploy twice a week to QA?

• Automate processes• Hire more staff• Prioritize QA deploys

Options

Short term approach

Long term approach

Measuring utilization helps with this prediction

“Feeling” the pain isn’t enough to predict the next constraint

There may be no pain at the next constraint today

When something is free, it is used more

Example: Amazon Prime. For $79/yr, customers get free 2 day shipping on everything.

“…Customers spent as much as 150% more at Amazon after they became Prime members.

Subscribers not only ordered more often … they started buying things at Amazon that they

probably wouldn’t have in the past” *

* http://business.time.com/2013/03/18/amazon-prime-bigger-more-powerful-more-profitable-than-anyone-imagined/

Consider implications of making something free

If builds, deploy, regression tests are free…

We’re going to be testing lots more. Better buy some

hardware.

Common “next bottleneck” patterns

After build, deploy is next

Build guy & deploy guy used to be in sync

A CI server can do hundreds of builds per day

Agile tends to make Operations a constraint

Knowing my stuff compiles at all times is great. I

want to know if it passes functional

tests too.

As tests shift left, expensive tests constrain

Developers run more integration tests

Some tests use expensive resources

–pay per use web services, mainframes, production systems…

Stubbing those resources becomes important

– known as “service virtualization”

Concurrent agile dev requires more test labs

More code is compiling, and set to be released “soon”

Need more environments to test changes in

– Pressure for Platform as a Service

Frequent releases demand fast feedback

Frequent releases enable experimentation

Monitoring of business outcomes required

Architectural pressures to support A/B testing

Stop ignoring difference between features delivered

and value delivered

If we keep chasing constraints, where does it end?

You may end up with Continuous Deployment

Build

Run thousands of tests

Deploy to some servers

Monitor

Deploy to remaining servers

Summary

Optimizations other than at the constraint don’t help

“Breaking” one constraint will expose the next

Patterns or analysis can be used to predict next constraint

Continual Improvement, Continual Improvement, Continual Improvement, Continual Improvement…

IBM will collaborate with you to understand your current situation,

goals and constraints. The Assessment and Planning

Workshop will aim to capture sufficient information to make specific recommendations for

improvement and implementation.

Intended Audience:- Key leadership from practice areas and

stakeholder organizations Value Proposition

- Clear recommendations for capability improvements aligned to your business goals

- Initial Architecture- Adoption roadmap based on proven best

practices Activities

- Workshop planning- Assessment and Planning Workshop- Collaborative discussion on current status, future

goals and adoption requirements- Produce Deliverable

Deliverables- Current Status and Improvement

Recommendations- Architecture - Adoption Roadmap

Assessment and Planning Workshop

More resources

Urbancode.com/resources

Continuous Delivery Maturity Model

Deployment Automation Basics

Applying Lean Principals to Software Delivery

Blogs.urbancode.com

Twitter.com/UrbanCode

Facebook.com/IBMUrbanCodeProducts

SlideShare.net/Urbancode

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SlideShare.net/Urbancode

@EricMinick

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