Project briefing May 2012: Climate change adaptation, energy futures, and carbon economies in remote...

Climate Change Adaptation, Energy Futures & Carbon

Economies in Remote Australia

Principal Research LeaderDigby Race

(commenced May 2012)

Research questions

Research questions

1. What options are there for remote communities to adapt to climate change, that also enhance their livelihoods?

Research questions

1. What options are there for remote communities to adapt to climate change, that also enhance their livelihoods?

2. How can remote communities transition to renewable energy, that enhances their livelihoods?

Research questions

1. What options are there for remote communities to adapt to climate change, that also enhance their livelihoods?

2. How can remote communities transition to renewable energy, that enhances their livelihoods?

3. What economic opportunities can be developed in a ‘carbon’ economy (eg. ‘carbon farming’) for remote communities?

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Research methods

• Synthesis of current knowledge & initiatives;

• Develop scenarios of projected change (low/mid/high change);

• Engage partners & other stakeholders to analyse scenarios;

• Explore options for ‘preferred futures’ across social & landscape typologies;

• Document results & engage stakeholders to transfer results to maximise positive change.

Achievements to date 

Achievements to date1. Workshop conducted with wide range of

partners & stakeholders to confirm interest in research [Aug. 2011];

Achievements to date1. Workshop conducted with wide range of

partners & stakeholders to confirm interest in research [Aug. 2011];

2. Workshop summary paper distributed that outlines scope of research [Dec. 2011];

Achievements to date1. Workshop conducted with wide range of

partners & stakeholders to confirm interest in research [Aug. 2011];

2. Workshop summary paper distributed that outlines scope of research [Dec. 2011];

3. Review of relevant literature conducted by CSIRO (current knowledge, gaps, conclusions) [May 2012].

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Review findings: Climate change  

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Review findings: Climate change Projections:

• More extreme & variable weather in remote north-central Australia (eg. hotter, storms, flooding);

• Remote communities vulnerable to climate changes (ie. high exposure, low adaptive capacity);

• Changes to ecosystems, human health & well-being, deteriorating infrastructure, higher cost & variable energy supplies, reduced human mobility, & enterprise viability.

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Review findings: Climate change Projections:

• More extreme & variable weather in remote north-central Australia (eg. hotter, storms, flooding);

• Remote communities vulnerable to climate changes (ie. high exposure, low adaptive capacity);

• Changes to ecosystems, human health & well-being, deteriorating infrastructure, higher cost & variable energy supplies, reduced human mobility, & enterprise viability.

Knowledge gaps:• How will different socio-economic groups within remote

communities be affected?• How can their adaptive capacity be increased?

Projected average temperature changes: 1990 – 2070 (across low, medium & high emission scenarios)

Source: Suppiah et al. (2007) 'Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report.' Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56: 131-152.

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Recent (2003) & projected days above 35°C at selected towns under ‘high’ emission scenario.

Town 2003 2040 2080

Alice Springs 89 days 129 days 207 days

Broome 54 163 316

Charleville 65 108 195

Cobar 41 68 144

Halls Creek 156 218 307

Kalumburu 140 262 346

Longreach 115 164 256

Woomera 51 78 135

Source: Suppiah et al. (2007) 'Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report.' Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56: 131-152.

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Review findings: Energy futures   

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Review findings: Energy futuresProjections:• Household consumption will rise (eg. use of air-conditioners

to cope with increasing heat), but so will cost of fossil fuels;

• Increasing costs of fossil fuels will reduce human mobility for remote communities (impacts on employment, education & health);

• Potential for widespread shift to renewable energy sources, but constrained by high up-front costs, perceptions of reliability, availability of skills for maintenance, ‘economies of scale’.

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Review findings: Energy futuresProjections:• Household consumption will rise (eg. use of air-conditioners

to cope with increasing heat), but so will cost of fossil fuels;

• Increasing costs of fossil fuels will reduce human mobility for remote communities (impacts on employment, education & health);

• Potential for widespread shift to renewable energy sources, but constrained by high up-front costs, perceptions of reliability, availability of skills for maintenance, ‘economies of scale’.

Knowledge gaps:• How can the social acceptability & technical feasibility be

enhanced for renewable energy systems?

• What alternative energies can be utilised to improve transport access & efficiency?

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Review findings: Carbon economies   

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Review findings: Carbon economies

Projections:• Long-term carbon sequestration required (CC mitigation);

• AG policy for ‘carbon’ trading from mid-2012, leading to changes to carbon-emitting businesses;

• Vegetation management has scope for long-term carbon storage (potential business opportunity);

• Altered fire regimes in savannah vegetation has potential as a ‘carbon farming’ business.

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Review findings: Carbon economies

Projections:• Long-term carbon sequestration required (CC mitigation);

• AG policy for ‘carbon’ trading from mid-2012, leading to changes to carbon-emitting businesses;

• Vegetation management has scope for long-term carbon storage (potential business opportunity);

• Altered fire regimes in savannah vegetation has potential as a ‘carbon farming’ business.

Knowledge gaps:• How can ‘carbon farming’ options lead to viable businesses

for remote communities?

• How will changes in carbon pricing affect ‘carbon farming’ businesses?

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Potential partners

• CSIRO,

• Centre for Appropriate Technology (CAT),

• Charles Darwin University (CDU),

• Curtin University (CU),

• University of South Australia (UniSA),

• Central Land Council (CLC),

• Power & Water Corp (P&WC),

• Centrefarm,

• Others ....

Please contact: Digby Race

Email: Digby.Race@anu.edu.au

Mobile: 0419 638 406

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