NZC - Alexander

Marcus Alexander, EPRIManager, Vehicle Systems Analysis

Net Zero Cities

October 23, 2013

Current and near-term emissions impacts of plug-in electric vehicles

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• Background• Recent emission trends• Future potential• Wrap-up

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• Background• Recent emission trends• Future potential• Wrap-up

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How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?

• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can reinforce other transportation initiatives:– Vehicle downscaling– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing– Mass transit– Freight delivery efficiency

5© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?

• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can reinforce other transportation initiatives:– Vehicle downscaling– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing– Mass transit– Freight delivery efficiency

• From an energy standpoint, electrification decouples energy generation from energy use, allowing:– Diversification– Fleet emissions reductions

6© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities

• This discussion will focus on personal cars

• It’s important to remember that for these, the primary competition is between electricity and gasoline

• The analysis looks at ‘conventional’ electricity as a starting point

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• Background• Recent emission trends• Future potential• Wrap-up

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Recent emissions trends

• Grid emissions of criteria pollutants like NOx and SO2 have decreased rapidly as regulations have tightened.

• Grid emissions of CO2 have decreased, but not as rapidly.

• It is unclear what will happen as explicit CO2 regulations are implemented, but there is significant potential for reductions.

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Generation sources (National)

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SO2 emissions reductions

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NOx emissions reductions

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CO2 emissions reductions

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CO2 emissions reductions

50 mpg

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Generation sources (NW-Central)

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• Background• Recent emission trends• Future potential• Wrap-up

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Future potential

• Current policy will significantly decrease NOx emissions, SO2 emissions, and other emissions not described above.

• CO2 emissions are expected to decrease under current policy.

• There is the potential for significant CO2 reductions under different policy scenarios.

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Projected SO2 emissions (preliminary)

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Projected NOx emissions (preliminary)

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Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)

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Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)

50 mpg

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• Background• Aggregation levels• Recent emission trends• Future potential• Wrap-up

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Wrap-up

Marcus Alexander

malexander@epri.com

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Backup: Non-road applications

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EPRI Non-road Electric Transportation Program

Airports– Ground support

equipment– Ground power

Mining– EV’s and Conveyers

Rail– Locomotives, cranes

Agriculture– All terrain vehicles– Tractors

Warehouses– Forklifts– Truck

refrigeration unitsTruck Stops

– Shore Power– On-board power

Seaports– Cranes– Cargo handling– Ships/Dredges

Construction

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Backup: Aggregation levels

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Aggregation levels

• Looking at statewide emissions doesn’t work well; there is too much sharing of electricity between states.

• National emissions are generally the best way to look at trends, but doesn’t provide regional detail, which can be quite interesting.

• For its REGEN model, EPRI created a set of region definitions that group states into blocks that represent electricity flows

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State emissions intensity

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State electricity trade

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REGEN regions

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REGEN regions

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Backup: 2 decades of emissions

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SOx

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NOx

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CO2

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Backup: Net emissions and air quality changes (from 2007

study)

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Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to PHEVs (2030 modeling)

Power Plant Emissions

• Emissions under caps (SO2, NOx, Hg) are essentially unchanged

• Primary PM emissions increase (defined by a performance standard)

Vehicle Emissions

• NOx, VOC, SO2, PM all decrease

• Significant NOx, VOC reductions at vehicle

tailpipe

• Reduction in refinery and related emissions

SOx NOx VOC PM

Power Plant -16284 58916 0 49434

Distributed Upstream 0 -1293 -103323 -101

Refinery and Other Station-ary

-23549 -20076 -17804 -3282

On-Road Vehicle -7716 -236292 -234342 -9255

-375,000

-325,000

-275,000

-225,000

-175,000

-125,000

-75,000

-25,000

25,000

75,000

Em

issi

ons

(tons)

-47,549 -198,745 -355,469 36,796

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Air quality impacts of PEVs

Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb)PHEV Case – Base Case

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-26,114 -61,508 -54,963 -188,166

PHEVs Improve Overall Air & Water Quality

Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury

Sulfate (ton) Nitrate (ton) Nitrogen (ton N) Mercury (g)

Disbenefit below Thresh-old

4561.92 3395.52 233.28 28693.4399999999

Disbenefit above Thresh-old

23211.36 1581.12 0 19712.16

Benefit below Threshold -12415.68 -20995.2 -22783.68 -90201.6

Benefit above Threshold -41472 -45489.6 -32412.96 -146370.24

-225,000

-175,000

-125,000

-75,000

-25,000

25,000

Change in U

.S.

Deposit

ion F

lux (

Unit

s S

pecifi

ed B

elo

w)