Moore's Law Statistical Validation [Updated] - Sanjoy Sanyal

Statistical Validation of Moore’s Law

Dr Sanjoy Sanyal; MBBS, MS, MSc (RCSEd), ADPHAProfessor, Course Director of Neuroscience,Consultant Surgeon, Medical Informatician

(Originally published in 2009, updated in July 2014 with an addendum in last slide about recent developments)

Co-founders of Intel®

Gordon E Moore Bob Noyce

Birth of Intel®

• Gordon E. Moore and Bob Noyce wanted to name their new company ‘Moore Noyce’

• But it was already trademarked by a hotel chain

• So they settled for ‘Intel’, acronym from ‘Integrated Electronics’

• Moore was at helm of Intel from 1975 to 1987

• The rest is history

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Moore’s Law• “Moore’s Law” states the number of transistors

on a chip roughly doubles every two years• “Moore’s Law” states that transistor density on

integrated circuits doubles about every two years.

• Moore’s Law isn’t a law at all • Moore’s prediction in 1965 popularly came to

be known as “Moore’s Law”• It is a statement that microprocessor design is

going to carry on improving at a steady rate

Moore’s Law Philosophy

• Intel® executives have turned ‘Moore's Law’ into a ‘mantra’.

• Intel® has hammered Moore’s Law into its corporate culture

• It constantly provides a marketing buzzword• It gives engineers ever-moving, tangible

standard to reach with each new model.• That is the real genius behind the concept

In subsequent slides, one needs to focus on the exponential graphs and their respective

equations

But, first let us see some theoretical data, as postulated in Moore’s Law…

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Based on Theoretical Data (previous slide)

Based on Theoretical Data

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Intel® 2004 Data (previous slide)

2004 Data

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Based on Intel® 2007 Data (previous slide)

Based on Intel® 2007 Data

Based on Intel® 2007 Data

Next 5 slides, also from Intel®

2007 data, highlight some Moore’s Law variants

Focus on chip clock speed and chip manufacturing technology (chip thickness)

Based on Intel® 2007 Data

Based on Intel® 2007 Data

Based on Intel® 2007 Data

Based on Intel® 2007 Data

Based on Intel® 2007 Data

Next 5 slides have been sourced from Wikipedia and Intel®

websites, to underscore their similarity with previous derived

graphs

Wikipedia

Wikipedia

Wikipedia

Wikipedia

Intel®

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Genius of Moore

• Genius of Moore’s Law concept• Engineering genius and hardcore geek • Moore was one of few people to earn the

respect from geeks and chief executives. – Engineers and executives are often at

loggerheads. – But Moore was an icon for both groups– This truly underscores his genius

Moore’s Law Drinking Game

If you play the Moore’s Law Drinking Game

at an Intel Developer Conference you will

be unable to walk out by the end of the

session

Addendum – Recent Developments

• Since the last 1 year or so, computing power has not increased exponentially

• Perhaps because transistors (and chips) have reached their limit of miniaturization

• The next big step is likely to involve–Graphene: Single atom thick layer of Carbon

to make chips–Quantum Computing and Photons of Light