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Green Cloud? The current and future development of energy consumption by data centers, networks and end-‐user devices
Dr. Ralph Hintemann, Dr. Jens ClausenICT4S Amsterdam, August 2016
Typical workplace:PC: 120 WattMonitor: 70 Watt
Annual power consumption: 400 kWh/a
And today?
Notebook 23 Watt, annual power consumption: 54 kWh
Tablet4 Watt, annual power consumption: 11 kWh
Smartphone< 1 Watt, annual power consumption: 2,5 kWh
Cloud computing is efficient…
§ Lean, efficient end-‐user devices
§ Large, efficient cloud data center
§ Better capacity utilization
Masanet et al. (2014): technical savings potential of 87% of energy consumption if typical office applications are shifted to the cloud
But: Cloud computing is growing extremly• More and more servers and data centers
• More network infrastructure (mobile and fixed networks)
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Forecasts
Source: Cisco 2015
Netto effect: rising or decreasing energy consumption?
Study prepared for the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2015:Annual IT energy consumption in Germany
Model base calculations with more than 90 different product groups
Four basic parameters were determined for each product group:§ Type and number of devices § Load-‐dependent electric power consumption§ User-‐specific applications and load profiles§ Dependencies on other product groups
Findings: Annual IT energy consumption in Germany in 2010 and 2015
Source: Stobbe et al. 2015, representation by authors
What about theglobal development?
Our approach: ICT is global
types of devices, their technical characteristics, usage patterns, and dependencies between product groups vary only little in the globalized world
Projecting the findings from Germanyto the global development
Some facts that demonstrate the limitations of the approach
§ Germany has a relatively good network infrastructure§ The structure of data centers in Germany is significantly different from that in other countries: § German data centers are the most modern in Europe in terms of the age of the buildings, the IT equipment, etc. (DCD Intelligence)
§ Germany has been a less attractive location for major cloud providers to date—among other things because of high electricity prices
§ The structure of television sets in Germany is very different from the global average: § Share of CRT devices in Germany in 2015: 18 %, § global share of CRT devices in 2015: 40 %
Some figuresStock of IT devices in Germany and the world (in millions)
Germany World
2010 2015 2010-‐2015 2010 2015 2010-‐2015Servers 1.9 2.2 +16% 40.9 53.0 +30%
PCs incl. thin clients 33.2 30.3 -‐9% 1319.0 1127.5 -‐15%
Laptops 33.5 42.5 +27% 681.0 1126.4 +65%
Smartphones and tablets
14.7 93.6 +537% 419.0 4301.0 +926%
TVs 61.1 68.6 +12% 2350.0 2570.0 +9%
Findings: Annual global IT energy consumption in 2010 and 2015
Forecast: Energy consumption of global cloud computing
The impact of cloud computing on IT energy consumption
§ Energy consumption by networks and data centers will presumably increase very significantly between 2010 and 2025
§ The decline in IT end-‐user devices' energy consumption during the period under consideration is considerable. But there is a significant increase in the number of smartphones and tablets, while the number of the other end-‐user devices is not decreasing overall.
§ Total IT energy consumption will increase in the future. To a large extent, this development is to be attributed to cloud computing.
Thank you!
Questions?
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