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Ramez Naam Humanity 2020: The Next 10 Years of Human Development The decade between 2010 and 2020 will be a small but significant step in the development of human enhancement technology, with tremendous numbers of new discoveries in genetics fueled by the continuing exponential drop in gene sequencing cost, commercial availability of a new generation of cognitive enhancers and the first plausible aging inhibitors, likely advances in genetic reprogramming of embryos and of mature humans, and continued progress in prosthetics, imaging, sports enhancement, and numerous other areas. Science and technology will have made significant strides in empowering individuals to be smarter, stronger, faster, and longer lived than ever before. Computer scientist Ramez Naam, author of More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Human Enhancement, and winner of the 2005 H.G. Wells Award for Contributions to Transhumanism will give a guided tour of the 10 year horizons across the board of human enhancement.
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Humansin
2020Ramez Naam
@ramez
Three Ingredients
Motive Opportunity Means
•Why Would We Transform Humans?
•Why Even Invest in the R&D?
Motive•Wh
at’s Possible to Change?
Opportunity
•How Do We Actually Change a Human?
Means
Motivation is Medical
Human Baseline
Acceptable
Human Baseline
Questionable!
?
External != Internal
Human Baseline
?
?
The Power to Heal=
The Power to Enhance
Our Population is Aging
A Worldwide Phenomenon
Disability as a Function of Age
Lost With Age
Mental
Memory
Speed
Problem Solving
Learning Rate
Physical
Strength
Cardio Fitness
Recovery
Metabolism
Appearance
Fertility
Sensory
Eyesight
Hearing
Touch
Taste
Balance
A Very Large Motivator
Order: Trillions of $’s
Ten Thousand Dollars
One Million Dollars
One Billion Dollars
One Trillion Dollars
You Are Here
So What?
Opportunity?
Knowledge
Understanding
Human Construction
Goal: 100,000 Genomes by 2020
2020: $100 Genome
Millions of Genomes Sequenced
Millions of Individual Humans
Every Mammalian Species
Lots of Data to Mine
What Will We Find?Trait Genetic Component in USA
Height 87%
Skin, Eye, Hair Color 90+%
Weight, Body Fat, Obesity 50%
Muscular Strength 35-55%
Longevity 25-30%
IQ 52%
Extroversion/Introversion 53%
Openness to Experience 61%
Conscientiousness 41%
Knowing is Half the Battle
The Other Half is Doing
If the Genome is Digital
Can We Edit It?
Sometimes
Some Challenges
Immune Response
Cancer (from retroviral vectors)
Number of Cells Changed
Progress
Strength & Endurance: IGF-1, Myostatin, PPAR-Delta
Oxygen Capacity: EPO
“About half the emails I get now are from athletes” - Gene Therapy Researcher Lee Sweeney
More Provocative Changes are Likely Possible
In Summary
We Are Approaching the Day of the Editable Genome
•Huge Medical Needs and Market in an Aging Population
Motive
•Will Become Evident from the Digitization of Biology
Opportunities
•Printing Genes, and Editing Through Gene Therapy (The Hard Part)
Means
Humansin
2020Ramez Naam
@ramez
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