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This presentation won't make you feel good when you read it, but it should motivate. The 4th slide shows "The Great Acceleration." Since the mid-19th Century every trend line flies upward, both positive and negative. One should read the words of the Founder of the Baha'i Faith who lived and taught at that time and see what He said about the needs of the future. Slides 5-8 relate to consumerism. One slide shows a bird bringing more material goods to its overloaded nest but doesn't notice the branch is cracking. Slides 9-14 show water issues, and the red in the Middle East is said by many to be related to the Arab spring. Slides 15-34 should be read by all who will be alive in 2050 and think that life will stay the same. Slide 58 talks about the dark force creating our world.
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Global trends in Agriculture, the Environment and Food
William Day
Fellow, Cambridge Programme forSustainability Leadership
Slide 2
‘Prediction is very difficult,
especially about the future.’
Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962)
(Sources: Rolling Stone Magazine, US Department of Energy)
The great acceleration
New Scientist 2008 from Steffen et al 2004
Northern Hemisphere average surface temperature
Population
Motor vehiclesSpecies extinctions
1750 1850 1950
GDP Foreign investment
Slide 5
THE BIOSPHERE
HUMAN SOCIETY
THE ECONOMY
Slide 8
Scarce resources
Slide 11
Worsening per capita water
availability
Slide 13 University of California
How much?
Half a kilo of lettuce 105 litres
Half a kilo of tomatoes 105 litres
Half a kilo of potatoes 110 litres
Half a kilo of wheat 150 litres
Half a kilo of carrots 150 litres
Half a kilo of apples 223 litres
Half a kilo of chicken 3,700 litres
Half a kilo of pork 7,410 litres
Half a kilo of grain fed beef at least 13,640 litres
Slide 14
Regional virtual water balances and net interregional
virtual water flows related to the trade in agricultural products. Period: 1997-2001.
Water Footprint Network
To meet the increasing demand
from a growing population we will
need to produce more food in the
next 40 years than has been
produced in the previous 8,000
years.
Jason Clay, Senior Vice President WWF
Long-term trends in average per
capita cereal production
Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2009; United Nations Population Division, 2007
Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Species resistant to pesticides
Numbers of species resistant to pesticides
FAO
Global Fertilizer Consumption Over
Time
Source: International Fertilizer Industry Association; U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base
The global growth of fertilizer use and cereal production,
1960-2010.
Source: UNEP 2011
Slide 23
Percent Increase in Nitrogen Flows in Rivers
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Slide 24
Harvest peak
Pre-peak
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project
Fisheries peaking
Food security
in
Asia
soils.usda.gov/.../food-security-asia.html
Source: Horne and McDermott 2001
Expected growth in biofuel demand
The price of food is highly dependent on the price of oil.
Source: FAO 2011; and Mundi Index 2011
Slide 32
Nu
mb
e
r 7,0
0
0,0
0
0,0
0
0?
N
o
7,100,000,000?
Slide 38
Slide 39
Slide 40 Stern Review
Slide 43
Slide 46
Slide 47
20 million
people
3 million
people 9 million
people
The impact of a one metre sea-level rise – displaced people in Asia
Altitude above
current sea level
72 million
people
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy
"It's no secret anymore that for every nine
barrels of oil we consume, we are only
discovering one."
November 11th, 2009
Slide 50
Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios at end 2011
http://www.bp.com/extendedsectiongenericarticle.docategoryId=9041234&contentId=7075077
Oil c. 50 years
Gas c. 60 years
Coal c.110 years
The big debate
53
Eurobarometer survey
Making the connections
Population
Sanitation
Disease Density
Urbanisation Poverty
InequalityNutrition
Uncertainty
&
Insecurity
water
energy
climate
food
WEF GLOBAL RISKS
LANDSCAPE 2013
Severe Income
Disparity
Rising GHG
Emissions
Water Supply CrisisFiscal imbalances
Mismanagement of
population ageing
Extreme Volatility food/agric prices
Food shortage crisis
Slide 58
TRUT
Trust in institutions to operate in society’s best interest
Global trends in Agriculture, the Environment and Food
William Day
Fellow, Cambridge Programme forSustainability Leadership
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