Future Perspective in Information Technology (1998)

Future Perspective in Information Technology:Future Perspective in Information Technology:

Possibilities to support European Possibilities to support European Police Co-operationPolice Co-operation

Prof. Dr. H.J. van den HerikProf. Dr. H.J. van den Herik

Dr. L.A. PluggeDr. L.A. Plugge

Universiteit MaastrichtUniversiteit Maastricht

MATRIKS - Computer ScienceMATRIKS - Computer Science

The NetherlandsThe Netherlands

Conference:Across Schengen Borders

Genval, November 6, 1998Château du Lac, 11:45-12:10 hours

4

What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?

Ideas on the Ideas on the futurefuture technology technology Ideas on Ideas on applicationsapplications of this technology of this technology Ideas on the Ideas on the acceptanceacceptance of the applications of the applications

5

What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?

Ideas on applications of this technologyIdeas on applications of this technology

Ideas on the Ideas on the futurefuture technology technology

Ideas on the acceptance of the applicationsIdeas on the acceptance of the applications

6

Can ComputersCan Computers Calculate?Calculate? (Zuse)(Zuse) Play Chess?Play Chess? (Shannon)(Shannon) Think?Think? (Turing)(Turing) Learn?Learn? (Samuel)(Samuel) Act as a psychotherapist?Act as a psychotherapist? (Weizenbaum)(Weizenbaum) Decide a court case?Decide a court case? (Van den Herik)(Van den Herik) Act as a wise policeman?Act as a wise policeman?

– a police officer?a police officer?

– a police constable?a police constable?

Act as a philosopher?Act as a philosopher? Believe?Believe?

WHERE IS THE BORDERLINE?WHERE IS THE BORDERLINE?

7

Technology and Future TechnologyTechnology and Future Technology

MechanizationMechanization19501950

ComputerizationComputerization

19701970Information handlingInformation handling

20002000IntelligentIntelligentE-commerceE-commerce

E-commerceE-commerce

20052005Agent TechnologyAgent Technology

20152015

Ant TechnologyAnt Technology

19901990IntelligentIntelligentprogramsprograms

Communication amongCommunication amongcomputerscomputers

(ICT)(ICT)

8

The Development of CommunicationThe Development of Communication

A single computerA single computer19501950

19621962 Communication between two computers (MIT)Communication between two computers (MIT)

ARPA-NET: 12 computersARPA-NET: 12 computers19691969

19801980 ARPA-NET: 60 computersARPA-NET: 60 computers

In Europe: EARNIn Europe: EARN19851985

19891989 INTERNET starts: 100,000 computersINTERNET starts: 100,000 computers

Continued...Continued...

9

The Development of CommunicationThe Development of Communication

INTERNET starts: 100,000 computersINTERNET starts: 100,000 computers19891989

19911991 500,000500,000

1.3 million1.3 million19931993

19961996 29.7 million29.7 million

~ 100 million ( =10~ 100 million ( =108 8 ))19981998

20052005 Around a billion (Am.) ( =10Around a billion (Am.) ( =109 9 ))ExpectationExpectation

10

How do we Communicate?How do we Communicate?

Single processorSingle processor TwoTwo

Four (an example)Four (an example)EightEight

16 (4-cube)16 (4-cube)

11

256 Node Binary Hypercube256 Node Binary Hypercube

12

Issues of CommunicationIssues of Communication

TechnologicalTechnological FinancialFinancial EconomicalEconomical LegalLegal PoliticalPolitical CulturalCultural

13

What do we Communicate?What do we Communicate?(In 1998)(In 1998)

DataDatae.g., on cross-border communicatione.g., on cross-border communication

InformationInformatione.g., on person looking for asylume.g., on person looking for asylum

Visual informationVisual informatione.g., pictures of persons wanted, fingerprintse.g., pictures of persons wanted, fingerprints

KnowledgeKnowledgee.g., on the behaviour of football supporterse.g., on the behaviour of football supporters

etc.etc.

14

What can we Communicate?What can we Communicate?

Reading (text)Reading (text) Sounding (voice)Sounding (voice) Sensing (waves)Sensing (waves) Smelling (perfume)Smelling (perfume) Tasting (salt)Tasting (salt)

Humans have five senses.Humans have five senses.Hence, we may use computers for Hence, we may use computers for

Multi Media Multi Media

15

EMMI is only a startEMMI is only a startProgress in research is as followsProgress in research is as follows

Graphical interfacesGraphical interfaces

VisualizationVisualization

SonificationSonification

OlfactorizationOlfactorization

FlavorizationFlavorization

SensibilizationSensibilization

16

Two Important Research ProjectsTwo Important Research Projects

Controlling the computer by speechControlling the computer by speech

Automatic Translation, Automatic Translation,

i.e., communication by a computer in one’s own i.e., communication by a computer in one’s own

languagelanguage

17

The Role of the European UnionThe Role of the European Union

ESPRIT projectsESPRIT projects– a.o. EMMI and Linguaneta.o. EMMI and Linguanet

ESPRIT transforms into ISPESPRIT transforms into ISP

IInformation nformation SSociety ociety PProgrammerogramme

18

What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?

Ideas on Ideas on applicationsapplications of this technology of this technology

Ideas on the future technologyIdeas on the future technology

Ideas on the acceptance of the applicationsIdeas on the acceptance of the applications

19

Application of the Agent TechnologyApplication of the Agent Technology

Communication between front office Communication between front office

and back officeand back office

Communication is controlled by speechCommunication is controlled by speech

Each policeman has a personal agent Each policeman has a personal agent

(a computer) for communication(a computer) for communication

20

The Future PracticeThe Future Practice

Any patrolman has a virtual communication line Any patrolman has a virtual communication line

with the police centrewith the police centre

Any patrolman has a speech-controlled agentAny patrolman has a speech-controlled agent

The agents can communicate among each otherThe agents can communicate among each other

(searching for information; calling for help)(searching for information; calling for help)

21

A Future Example (1)A Future Example (1) A male patrolman stops someoneA male patrolman stops someone He activates a small video camera in his He activates a small video camera in his

policeman’s cappoliceman’s cap He asks the person: name, address, and He asks the person: name, address, and

residenceresidence He requests his agent to check the He requests his agent to check the

information receivedinformation received

22

A Future Example (2)A Future Example (2)

The agent recognizes the foreign addressThe agent recognizes the foreign address The agent communicates to another agentThe agent communicates to another agent The response is in within 10-20 secondsThe response is in within 10-20 seconds The response is communicated to the The response is communicated to the

patrolman via an earplugpatrolman via an earplug

23

A Future Example (3)A Future Example (3)

The person seems to be knownThe person seems to be known A fingerprint would give a definitive answerA fingerprint would give a definitive answer The patrolman requests the person to place The patrolman requests the person to place

the right thumb on the photoelectric cell of his the right thumb on the photoelectric cell of his mobile communicatormobile communicator

The agent communicates the informationThe agent communicates the information The stopped person understands what happens The stopped person understands what happens

and fleesand flees

24

A Future Example (3a)A Future Example (3a)

The person seems to be knownThe person seems to be known The DNA structure would give a definitive The DNA structure would give a definitive

answeranswer The patrolman requests the person to spit in The patrolman requests the person to spit in

a small bowla small bowl The agent communicates the informationThe agent communicates the information The stopped person understands what The stopped person understands what

happens and fleeshappens and flees

25

A Future Example (3b)A Future Example (3b) The person seems to be knownThe person seems to be known The DNA structure would give a definitive The DNA structure would give a definitive

answeranswer The patrolman courteously takes a hair from The patrolman courteously takes a hair from

the shoulder of the person’s coat and puts it in the shoulder of the person’s coat and puts it in the agent’s input devicethe agent’s input device

The agent communicates the informationThe agent communicates the information The stopped person understand what happens The stopped person understand what happens

and fleesand flees

26

A Future Example (4)A Future Example (4) The patrolman speaks to his agent:The patrolman speaks to his agent:

““I would like to have support for pursuit!”I would like to have support for pursuit!” The agent knows the precise location of the The agent knows the precise location of the

patrolmanpatrolman The agent calls the neighbour agentsThe agent calls the neighbour agents They decide whether their patrolman (their They decide whether their patrolman (their

boss!) can be called up for supportboss!) can be called up for support

And so onAnd so on

27

Some RemarksSome Remarks All technology suggested is already available, although All technology suggested is already available, although

not in the combination described herenot in the combination described here The scene provides new technology, but also new The scene provides new technology, but also new

management: the agent decidesmanagement: the agent decides Who should decide on the acceptance?Who should decide on the acceptance?

– TechnologyTechnology

– National AuthoritiesNational Authorities

– The European UnionThe European Union

Who should provide (pay for) the necessary Who should provide (pay for) the necessary infrastructure?infrastructure?

28

What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?

Ideas on applications of this technologyIdeas on applications of this technology

Ideas on the future technologyIdeas on the future technology

Ideas on the Ideas on the acceptanceacceptance of the applications of the applications

29

The Acceptance of the ApplicationsThe Acceptance of the Applications

The acceptance requiresThe acceptance requires

A shift of mindA shift of mind

30

ObstaclesObstacles

80 percent of the highest police officers do not 80 percent of the highest police officers do not have any feeling for modern technologyhave any feeling for modern technology

There are many political barriersThere are many political barriers Adequate infrastructure costs a large amount of Adequate infrastructure costs a large amount of

moneymoney The patrolmen have their own cultureThe patrolmen have their own culture

31

What do we mean withWhat do we mean with“a shift of mind”?“a shift of mind”?

Let me present an exampleLet me present an example

from my beloved research domainfrom my beloved research domain

(computer) chess(computer) chess

32

The Power of a RepresentationThe Power of a RepresentationConsider the following problemConsider the following problem

BeginBegin EndEnd

What is the shortest path to changeWhat is the shortest path to changethe black and white Knights?the black and white Knights?

33

SolutionSolutionStep 1: Number the SquaresStep 1: Number the Squares

1010

88

55

2211

99

66

33

77

44

34

Step 2: Determine the Nearest Neighbour Step 2: Determine the Nearest Neighbour Diagram for the Knight MoveDiagram for the Knight Move

1010

88

55

2211

99

66

33

77

44

(which squares are neighbours as seen by a Knight)(which squares are neighbours as seen by a Knight)

FromFrom

We arrive atWe arrive at

1010 88 552211 9966

33

77 44

35

Step 3: Determine the Starting PositionStep 3: Determine the Starting Position

and the End Positionand the End Position

WW ZZWW

ZZ

ZZ WWZZ

WW

Step 4: Recognize that this is a Shunting Problem Step 4: Recognize that this is a Shunting Problem (with square 3 as a side track)(with square 3 as a side track)

36

Step 5: The solution is now easyStep 5: The solution is now easy

WW ZZWW

ZZ

Shortest Path:Shortest Path:40 moves40 moves

ZZ WWWW

ZZ

ZZ WW

ZZ

WW

ZZ WWZZ

WW

ZZ

WW WW ZZ

37

AI ApplicationsAI Applications

Routing (e.g., on Internet)Routing (e.g., on Internet) Financial TransactionsFinancial Transactions TelematicsTelematics Process ControlProcess Control Traffic (airplanes, trains, cars)Traffic (airplanes, trains, cars) Legal Knowledge-Based SystemsLegal Knowledge-Based Systems Multi Media Information SystemsMulti Media Information Systems The Patrolman’s AgentThe Patrolman’s Agent Policy-Supporting AgentsPolicy-Supporting Agents Intelligent Management SystemsIntelligent Management Systems

From:From:Via:Via:To:To:

ChessChessShuntingShunting

38

Your “last” question:Your “last” question:

Okay, if we accept the shift of Okay, if we accept the shift of mind, are all technological mind, are all technological problems solved by now?problems solved by now?

The answer is: NO.The answer is: NO.

39

Six Fundamental ProblemsSix Fundamental Problems1.1. What precisely is:What precisely is:

– KnowledgeKnowledge

– IntelligenceIntelligence

– Normative behaviour (Conduct, Competence)Normative behaviour (Conduct, Competence)

2.2. How do we measure reliability of knowledge?How do we measure reliability of knowledge?

3.3. How do we store (represent) reliability (in a flexible How do we store (represent) reliability (in a flexible way)?way)?

4.4. Reasoning with uncertain and incomplete knowledge.Reasoning with uncertain and incomplete knowledge.

5. Reasoning with situation semantics.5. Reasoning with situation semantics.

6.6. How can we model normative behaviour?How can we model normative behaviour?

40

A Perspective for the Next Ten YearsA Perspective for the Next Ten Years

19991999 International Telebanking International Telebanking (increasing criminal actions)(increasing criminal actions)

20002000 Tele education at some universitiesTele education at some universities

20012001 Tele education at the police schoolsTele education at the police schools

20022002 Tele shoppingTele shopping

2003 2003 Homologizing of police forces (a start)Homologizing of police forces (a start)

20042004 All police databases in European Union are connectedAll police databases in European Union are connected

20052005 Controlled exchange of information Controlled exchange of information tele working tele working

20092009 A patrolman is equipped with an agentA patrolman is equipped with an agent

41

Current ObstaclesCurrent Obstacles

Differences inDifferences in– InfrastructureInfrastructure

– CultureCulture

– LawLaw

– EducationEducation

And lack of moneyAnd lack of money

42

Three ConclusionsThree Conclusions1.1. The advances in knowledge engineering have an The advances in knowledge engineering have an

exponential growthexponential growth

2.2. The future performances of intelligent The future performances of intelligent

computers are greatly underestimated by almost computers are greatly underestimated by almost

all people, prominent researchers among themall people, prominent researchers among them

3.3. The police officers of the European Union are The police officers of the European Union are

privileged to have been informed on the privileged to have been informed on the

advances of technology in such an early stageadvances of technology in such an early stage