Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference

Future of Open Source

5TH Annual Leadership Keynote Michael Skok

The Panel

2  

Jim Whitehurst President & CEO

Mike Olson CEO

Michael Skok General Partner

Tom Erickson CEO

Adrian Kunzle Managing Director

@entrecapitalist

Welcome!

3

Industry Investment

Direction Impact

Collaborators

4

5

Who we heard from. (you!)

Survey Response

6

455

4 6 0 0 Survey Respondents

7

Vendors Non-Vendors

%

Survey Respondent’s Titles

8

Agenda

9

Industry Impact

Direction Investment

Is a Turbulent Economy Good or Bad for Open Source?

10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Good Bad

2009 2010 2011

What Makes OSS Attractive?

11

Lower costs

Freedom from VENDOR Lock-in

Access to code libraries

Lower costs

Superior security

Freedom from VENDOR lock-in

Lower costs

Freedom from VENDOR lock-in

Rapid pace of innovation

2008 2009 2010 2011

Freedom from VENDOR lock-in

Lower costs

Flexibility

18%

15%

15% 15%

14%

13%

7% 3%

Tipping Point – What’s Driving Adoption?

12

Vendor Lock-in

Economic Downturn

Public Sector Adoption

Private Sector Adoption

OSS Experience

Quality

Other Mobility

Top 5 Barriers to OSS Selection

13

Lack of internal technical skills

Unfamiliarity with open source solutions

Lack of formal commercial vendor support

126

122

98

responses

84

65

Legal concerns about licensing

Does not conform to internal policies

Agenda

14

Industry Investment

Direction Impact

What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years?

Mobile

OS Database MOST

What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years?

  3,800 new mobile projects in 2010

  94% speficied, target Apple iOS or Android

MOST = Mobile

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

New Mobile OSS Projects

Thanks to our collaborator Black Duck

What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years?

“Code can be commoditized more easily than trained people, ingrained business processes and mission critical data”

Michael Skok

17

LEAST ERP/CRM

Office Productivity

Business Intelligence

How is The Use of OSS Components Impacting the Manageability of Applications?

18

More

Less

None

26%

20%

14%

15%

17%

8%

Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today

19

Custom Development

Support Subscriptions

Ad-hoc Support

“Closed-source” Licensing

Value-add Subscriptions

Other

26%

20%

14%

15%

17%

8%

Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today, and 2 years out…

20

Custom Development

Support Subscriptions

Ad-hoc Support

“Closed-source” Licensing

Value-add Subscriptions

Other

17%

25%

7% 20%

18%

9% 4%

+ 2 Years

Advertisements

What Licensing Strategy do you use?

21

(vendor only question)

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Res

pons

es

For definitions refer to

Impact on OSS Vendors?

22

SaaS

Private Cloud

Public Cloud

App Stores

Mobile Devices

Impact on OSS Vendors – Cloudy…

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

40

80

120

160

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

New OSS Cloud Projects Cumulative Projects *Projects specifically referencing cloud. Many OSS projects are suitable for cloud but don’t specify it.

Thanks to our Collaborator Black Duck

Cool OSS Projects mentioned…

24

2009

Up & Coming OSS Companies

25

2010 2011

22% 72%

2.7%

24%

OSS Investment – by the numbers

26

2009

Dollars Invested

Deals Completed

Ave Deal Size

Seed, Series A

$375M 73 $5.7M $65M

$466M

71

$7.0M $112M

96

67 62

75

42

94 89 85

OSS Deployed in Your Organization

27

75%-100% 50%-75%

25% -50%

0%- 25%

Percentage of OSS is Deployed

Res

pons

es

Today In 5 Years

IN 5 YEARS: What % of Software Purchases Will be OSS?

28

2015

2014

50% or more on OSS

2016

2013

Wrap-up: The Open Source Path

29

OSS in the Mainstream…

30

Private Sector Adoption

Lower Costs

Growing Investments

Avoid Vendor Lock-In

Public Sector Adoption

… But Not Yet Mature!

31

  Internal technical skills

  Unfamiliarity

  Vendor support

Watch for Path Traps

32

  Innovation vs. bloat

  Maintenance costs

  DevOps

Opportunities…

33

OSS can: •  Innovate •  Lead

A big thank you from North Bridge to…

34

Jim Whitehurst President & CEO

Mike Olson CEO

Michael Skok General Partner

Tom Erickson CEO

Adrian Kunzle Managing Director

35

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