View
1.300
Download
1
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Conference on Mega Trends in Livestock Production: The State of Animal Agriculture 2025–2050, USA, 11–13 March 2014
Citation preview
Evolution of animal productionin emerging markets:
China, Russia, India, Brazil, AfricaConference on mega trends in livestock production: The state of animal
agriculture 2025–2050
Florham Park, USA, 11–13 March 2014
Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS
GLOBAL TRENDS:Livestock demand and production are increasing rapidly in developing countries
• Unprecedented rising demand for livestock commodities will continue over the coming 5 decades
• Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly
Animal agriculture to 2050: TRAJECTORIES
TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGE:Some of the greatest changes will occur in the smallholder sector• The big changes in livestock
systems are occurring among smallholders, who differ greatly according to region, system, poverty levels, etc.
• Small-scale mixed crop-livestock farmers in developing countries offer big opportunities for preventing disease outbreaks, closing yield gaps and reducing greenhouse gases
Animal agriculture to 2050:SCENARIOS
FUTURE SCENARIOS:Big opportunities liein developing countries
• Vaccines and other technological advanceslikely to be of broad usecan be game changers
• More judicious targeting of different livestock markets and institutions could vastly increase returns on invest-ments by the private and public sectors
Animal agriculture: Past, current, future
Future trends:• Demand• Production• Trade
Trajectories of change:• Diverse opportunities
Plausible future scenarios:• Global assessments (e.g. MEA)• Livestock-sector responses
From key(1) assumptions, (2) drivers (rising human population,per capita GDP, urbanization and (3) past trends:
Trends
% change in global demand for livestock products: 2000–2030
milk beef mutton pork poultry meat
eggs0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
FAO 2011
%
Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed countries
1980 1990 2002 2015 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
developingdeveloped
Mill
ion
met
ric t
onne
s
FAO 2006
% change in consumption of animal products:2000–2030
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat
Eggs0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ChinaRussiaBrazilIndiaSSAHigh income
843%
%
FAO 2011
Consumption of livestock productsto 2050
• Globally:An overall increase in per capita daily consumptionof livestock products of 37% compared to 2000
• Commodities differ:– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption
– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption
• Regions differ:– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie
consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC
– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC
Herrero et al. 2014
1bn tonnes morecereals to 2050
1bn tonnesdairy each year
460m tonnesmeat each year
By 2050 we’ll need huge amountsof cereals, dairy and meat . . .
Where and how most livestock commoditiesare being produced, sold and consumed
is changing significantly
Projections of livestock production increases:2000–2050
• In half a century, total livestock commodityproduction is projectedto increase by 92%:
+106% for monogastricmeat (pig and poultry)and poultry eggs
+88% for ruminant meat(cow, sheep, goat, camel,water buffalo)
+85% for milk
• With big regionaldifferences
Herrero et al. 2014
% change in production of animal products:2000–2030
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat
Eggs0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ChinaRussiaBrazilIndiaSSAHigh income
%
FAO 2011
Production estimate in 2030:000s metric tonnes
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat
Eggs0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
ChinaRussiaBrazilIndiaSSAHigh income
FAO 2011
Production estimate in 2030:000s metric tonnes
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat
Eggs0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
ChinaRussiaBrazilIndiaSSAHigh income
178,407
167,48862,758
FAO 2011
% increase in production of livestock products:2000–2050
Raw milk Monogastric meat & eggs
Ruminant meat0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
EuropeLatin AmericaAfrica/Middle East
%
Herrero et al. 2014
Valuable livestock productsare moving around the globe
4 out of 5 of the highest valueglobal commodities are livestock
FAOSTAT 2013
Import and export of meat (000s metric tonnes)
2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
other AfricaIndiaBrazilRussiaChina
Expo
rtIm
port
Beef Pork PoultryFAPRI 2012
Global livestock product exports:2013–2022
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
OECD estimates of beef/veal export
developed countries BRICSSSA
000s
ton
nes
BRICS dominate
World meat exports increase by 19% to 2022
Poultry and bovinemeat account for 80%of the trade
Estimated dairy trade increases of 1.6−2.1%per year (mainly fromUS, EU, New Zealand, Australia & Argentina)
OECD-FAO 2013
FAO 2013. World Livestock 2013 – Changing disease landscapes
Poultry meat exports
From Brazil and the US:
1987−1989
1997−1999
2007−2009
Trajectories
Monogastric production systems
2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 20500%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
smallholderindustrial
Europe Latin America Africa/Middle EastHerrero et al. 2014
Ruminant production systems
• Mixed systems are an important sourceof ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050– Europe: 42% mixed temperate– Latin America: 48% mixed humid– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
• For milk:– Over 50% of milk comes from mixed
systems, regardless of the region– Big increases in milk production
by 2050 continue to be in mixed systems, especially in Africa and the Middle East
Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepersare competitive
East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers
have same levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
Trajectories of growth
•‘Strong growth’– Intensifying and increasingly market
oriented often transforming smallholder systems
•‘Fragile growth’– Where remoteness, marginal land
resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification
• ‘High growth with externalities’ (industrial)– Intensified livestock systems with
diverse challenges including the environment and human health
Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
− Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Market access and food safety− Endemic disease impacts− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
− New opportunities for novel approaches from the private animal health sector
‘Fragile growth’ − Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response
− Multiple endemic diseases− Zoonoses− Source of disease− Movement controls
− Mostly public sector interventions
‘High growth with externalities’
− Mostly monogastric− China for all sectors
− Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares
− New animal health products to respond− Modalities of operation established
Distinguishing opportunities
Distinguishing opportunities (cont.)Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
− Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Market access and food safety− Endemic disease impacts− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
− New opportunities for novel approaches from the private animal health sector
‘Fragile growth’ − Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response
− Multiple endemic diseases− Zoonoses− Source of disease− Movement controls
− Mostly public sector interventions
‘High growth with externalities’
− Mostly monogastric− China for all sectors
− Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares
− New animal health products to respond− Modalities of operation established
Rapidly growing mixed systems areripe for novel animal health solutions
Animal health challenges of strong growth trajectories
Intensifying and increasingly market-oriented(and sometimes transforming) smallholder systemspresent animal health challenges
Market access and food safety– Engagement in local, regional and international markets
is threatened by food safety issues and regulations
Endemic disease impacts– Implications for productivity, and thus addressing market demand
Zoonotic outbreaks– Intensifying systems place people and animals
in ever-closer proximity, increasing the risk of zoonoses
Innovations, incentives and institutionsfor addressing food safety
• Develop, test technologies• Train, brand, certify informal actors including women• Development local capacity
Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis Women butchers sell safer meat than men
Steinfeld et al. 2006
Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries
Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
Annual losses from selected diseases:Africa and South Asia
BMGFEndopara
sites
PPRCBPP
Ectopara
sites
CCPPFM
DTry
ps
Shoat pox
Newcastl
e
Bruce
llosis
Bovine TBLS
DRVF
ECFBVD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
South AsiaAfrica
Billi
on $
lost
yea
rly
AfricaSouth Asia
• Animal disease is a key constraint:Remove it and animal productivity increases greatly
• As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase
Young Adult
Cattle 22% 6%
Shoat 28% 11%
Poultry 70% 30%
Otte & Chilonda IAEA
Annual mortality of African livestock(About half due to preventable or curable diseases)
Animal disease is a key constraint in Africa
Almost all losses are in developing countries
A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each yearkill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion
Lept
ospi
rosis
TB (zoo
)
Rabie
s
Cystic
erco
sis
Leish
man
iasis
Bruce
llosis
Echin
ococ
cosis
Toxop
lasm
osis
Q feve
r
Sleep
ing
sickn
ess
Anthr
ax0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses
Greatest burden of zoonoses falls onone billion poor livestock keepers
Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
1998
2007
African swine fever threatensUS$150-billion global pig industry
Recent reports indicate ASF has moved into Belarus, Poland and Lithuania
Health and feed marketvalues and approaches
The cost:• Emerging animal disease outbreaks in the last decade: $200bn• Zoonoses (1998–2009): $6.7bn/yr
The value (2010/2011):• Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry• Global human health market = $1,000 billion• Global animal health market
(livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion• Global livestock health market = $13 billion• Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion• Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15%• Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth (2nd after Latin America)
Animal health markets: Big and growing, incl. in developing countries
Animal health markets:India example
• 500 million livestock,1 billion poultry
• Livestock sector is 2nd-largest contributor to GDP (6%)
• Largest dairy producer (and will remain so for decades)
• Animal health marketannual growth over 8%
• Worth $370 million in 2008:52% cattle, 38% poultry
• Poultry alone could worth be over $1billion by 2030
Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries
• Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages)
• Delivery systems for small farms
• Surveillance for drug resistance
• ‘One Health’ approaches and ‘Rational Drug Use’ for both people and animals
• ‘Game-changing products’:e.g., vaccines for Newcastledisease and East Coast fever
• Quality assurance forveterinary medicines
8%
4%
4%
4%
3%2%2%
16%23%
22%
12%
China
US
Canada
Mexico
Japan
Brazil
EU-25
India
KoreaRussia
Other
Manufactured compound feed
Total in 2008:635 million tonnes from four major sources
Total in 2013:Almost 1 billion tonnes; valued at US$370 billion
Estimated growth:2% per annum
World feed producers contribution to animal feed: 2008
IFIF, 2008 and 2013
Animal feed markets:Trends in developing countries to 2030
• Use of crop residues decreases,but still comprises >50% of livestock diets in SSA andSouth Asia
• Use of crop by-products(oilcakes etc.) and concentrates increases, but remains <10%, except in India dairy (25%)
• Planted forages increase
• Feed bought frommarkets increases
World Bank 2012
Animal feed markets:Opportunities in developing countries
• Feed technology– Food-feed crops– Ration formulation;
processing and storage– Forage seed production
and marketing
• Institutional and market issues
• Feed regulatory policies
• Animal numbers and productivity
Scenarios
Variables that influence trajectories
• Slow variables, e.g.:– Climate change– Technological change
• Fast variables, e.g.:– Changing market dynamics
• Thresholds or ‘tipping points’:– Disease outbreak– New trade restrictions– Climate-related policy imposition– Technological breakthrough– ‘Wild cards’ = the unknowns
Global scenarios
• Globalscenarios:– Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment– IAASTD– IPCC etc.
• Livestock-sectorscenarios:– ‘climate catastrophe’– ‘sustainable solutions’– ‘pandemic disaster’
(unpredictable)
Example of global scenario
More sustainable diets − convergence towards consumption of 75g/capita/day of animal-source foods
Varied levels of consumption of animal-source foodsContinued inequality of diets
Inequalities in levels of consumption of animal-source foods are exacerbated
IPCC panel: Shared socioeconomic pathways
Livestock scenario: Climate catastrophe
• With broad acceptance that a +2oC climate increase has occurred, drastic policies are put in place to prevent a further rise to +4oC– The livestock sector
is heavily taxed forits contributions toGHG emissions
– Prices for livestockcommodities skyrocket
– Livestock production,sales and consumptionall plummet, leadingto increased poverty,hunger and malnutrition
Livestock scenario: Sustainable solutions
Governments and development donors:• tackle food and nutritional security as well as poverty• dramatically increase their support for livestock producers
Success breeds more success:• milk in India• pigs in Vietnam• dairy in Kenya
Smallholder livestock producersbecome major instruments for:
• Food/nutrition security• Multiple livelihood benefits• Environmental protection• Healthy food systems
Livestock sector scenario solutions
• Technical:Solutions for the two scenarios are similar– Improved efficiency
of livestock productionthrough better feeding,genetics and health
• Institutional:Solutions for the two scenarios differ – Packaging, delivery,
market response
Animal agriculture to 2050: Trends, trajectories, scenarios
GLOBAL TRENDSLivestock demand, productionand change are all increasingrapidly in developing countries
TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGEThe greatest changes will occurin the smallholder sector
FUTURE SCENARIOSBig opportunitieslie in the developing countries
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
better lives through livestock
ilri.org
Recommended