Energy & Power

Population Growth By Region

Per Capita Carbon Emissions

For Climate Change Skeptics; its not about climate!

Global Carbon Emissions World GDP

Energy Sources

Use of Cars

Technology Demands

Fossil Fuel Uses

Turning to Cities

Per Capita Consumption of Energy

Energy Consumption by Source

Oil

What Is Oil Used for Anyway?

Oil Demand and Consumption by Nation

How many years of oil are left?

Hubbert’s Peak

Demand for Oil Inelastic

Oil Prices

Production in Decline

World Energy Use by Non-Alternative Fuels and Oil Resources Use by Region

How does oil get to us?

Oil Sands

Natural Gas Reserves by Region

Natural Gas Flows

Coal Reserves in US

Electricity Essential for Economic Growth

26

NAP_NAG_ConfCall_040308

Electricity and Carbon Emissions

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.Data source: US Energy Information Administration. 80204-1

Res idential (nonelectric) 6%

Electric Power40%

Transportation33%

Industrial(nonelectric)

17%

C ommercial (nonelectric) 4%

Electricity is Big Money

U.S. Electric Value Chain, 2005

COAL1,038 MM Short Tons

($31 Billion)

NATURAL GAS5,679 Bcf($51 Billion)

OIL214 Million Barrels

($12 Billion)

NUCLEAR($5 Billion)

FUEL COST DEFERRALS

($7.5 Billion)

$92 BillionMarket Value of Fuel Use for Generation

Fuel

313 GWCoal

386 GWNatural Gas

61 GWPetroleum

100 GWNuclear98 GWHydro24 GW

RenewablesTotal: 982 GW

$106 BillionValue Added

Generation (Installed MWs)

$24 BillionValue Added

Transmission

$67 BillionValue Added

Distribution

$7 BillionValue Added

Trading & Other

AnnualConsumption:

3,660 TWh

$296Billion

(Average Revenue per kWh: $0.081)

We Spend About

$300 BillionOn Electricity

Each Year

National Fuel Mix

Aging Infrastructure

Cost of Energy Infrastructure Overhaul

Thinking about Costs

32

CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008

Levelized Cost of Electricity for Conventionaland Renewable Power Options

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.Notes: See next slide for capital cost and operating cost assumptions. Wind utilization rate range is 20–40 percent, and cost range includes PTC benefits.Natural gas price range of $6–$8 per MMBtu assumed for combustion turbine and combined-cycle units. Renewable energy production and investment tax credits included.80109-5

50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275

Solar PV

Solar CSP

Biomass

Geothermal

Nonfirm Wind

Supercritical Coal

Combined Cycle

Combustion Turbine

Levelized Cost of Electricity(2007 dollars per MWh)

Cost of Nuclear

Increasing Cost of Electricity

Matching Supply and Demand

Misaligned Incentives-Regulated Monopolies

Undoing Monopolies

Misaligned Incentives- IPPs

Regional Power Generation

40

CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008

Wind Output Does Not Match Load

Source: GE Power Systems Energy Consulting, The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning, Reliability and Operations,a report prepared for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, 2004. Used with permission.80109-6

3,000

2

WindOutput

(MW)

10

30

Load(thousandMW)

0

2,500 25

20

15

10

5

Average JulyNew York Control

Area Load

Average JulyWind Output

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Hours of the Day

Wind Power in the US

42

CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008

Reported Wind Turbine Prices—United States

Orders

1,600

TurbineTran s action

Price(2006 dollars

per kW)

1999 20070

1,400

1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Trend L ine

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory database, US Department of Energy.71108-6

Pollution Points

Air Pollution

Air Pollution Impacts

Pollution Controls, Cap and Trade Has Worked

47

CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008

New Power Generation Capacity Characteristics and Costs

Capital Cost ($ per kW)

Heat Rate (Btu/kWh)

Variable Production

Cost ($/MWh)

Fixed O&M ($ per kW-

year)

Estimated Utilization Rate

(percent)

Conventional Generation Options

Combustion Turbine 500–600 10,500 67 14 15

Combined Cycle 800–1000 7,000 44 24 85

Supercritical Coal 2,300–3,000 8,900 17 68 85

Renewable Generation Options

Wind 1,900–2,000 NA NA 49 20–40

Geothermal 3,500–4,500 NA 15 70 80

Biomass 2,500–3,500 12,500 35 100 85

Solar—Photovoltaic 5,200–6,500 NA NA 30 27

Solar—Concentrating 3,750–4,250 NA NA 55 30

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.Notes: Combustion turbine design basis assumes 2 x 7F, dual fuel capable, nominal 340 MW. Combined-cycle gas turbine design basis assumes 2 x 2 x 1 7F, dual fuel capable, nominal 500 MW, closed-loop wet cooling. Supercritical coal unit design basis assumes nominal 600 MW unit with double reheat.Capital cost figures include owner's costs (development/permitting, land acquisition, construction G&A, financing costs, interest during construction, etc.), but exclude contractor risk premiums. Fixed O&M includes property tax and insurance as well as other fixed operating expenses (labor, maintenance materials, ongoing capital, etc.). Variable production cost includes fuel (natural gas at $6.00 per MMBtu, coal at $1.60 per MMBtu, and biomass at $2.00 per MMBtu) and variable O&M costs. Biomass design assumes a dedicated wood combustion facility. Solar PV cost estimate is based on utility scale installations.

Wind

Low

Moderate

Moderate to High

Generally Low withScattered Pockets of High Potential

Wind Resource Map: Potential forUtility-Scale Wind Power Development

(U.S. Annual Average Wind Power)

How Do Solar Panels Work

Solar Methods

Solar Thermal

Solar

54

CERA_NAP_ConfCall_032008

Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Purchase Obligations by State

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy (DSIRE).*Previous Minnesota RPS was a nonbinding goal except for Xcel Energy.**Wisconsin requires all utilities to increase renewables contributions by 6 percent over the 2001–03 average level by 2015 and has a nonbinding goal of 10 percent by 2015.***Vermont’s voluntary standard becomes mandatory in 2013 if it is not met by 2012.****California: IOU = investor-owned utility; ESP = energy service provider; CCA = community-choice aggregator.*****Virginia: 2007 sales less the average annual percentage of power supplied from nuclear generators between 2004 and 2006.60502-2_1207

State Has RPS State with Nonbinding Goals

5,880 MWby 2015

30% by 2020for Xcel,

>25% new wind;mandatory 25% by2025 for others.* 30% by 2000;

10% increaseover 2007 total

capacity by2017

7.5%by 2019

(MD)

20% by2020

4% by 2009 (MA)

16% by 2019 (RI)

10% by 2010 (CT)

10% by 2015and 25% by 2025;

75% from wind

11% by 2022(0.386% solar)

(DC)

10% by 2019 (DE)

22.5% by 2020(2.12% solar) (NJ)

IA

M NW I

M E

N MAZ

C A

TX

PA

N V IL

N Y

C O

M T

20% by2020 (HI)

15% by 2020, 4.5% fromdistributed source

20% by 2015(1% solar)

20% by 2020(10% for large

municipals and coops,including 0.8% solar)

20% by 2010 (IOU, ESP,CCA);**** 20% by 2017

(all others); 33% by 2020(nonbinding goal)

15% by2015

6–8% by 2015(utility specific);

nonbinding goalof 10% by 2015**

25% by 2013; 1% customer sited

All loadgrowth

2005–12(VT)***

15% by2020

W A 18% alternative energy by 2019

(0.5% solar)

23.8% by 2025(0.3% new solar)

(NH)

25% by 2025(large utilities);

5–10% by 2025(smaller utilities)

O R

12% of2007

sales by2022*****

VA

4% by 2012 and11% by 2020

M O

Approximately250 MW by 1999

12.5%by

2025

N C

10% by 2015

N D

The Future?

Technology to Save Us?

How do we rethink meeting our needs?