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David's presentation given to the Digital Birmingham Stakeholders Meeting on Thursday 26th January at Fazeley Studios
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Global Futures& Foresight
David SmithChief executive
Global Futures and Foresight
© Global Futures and Foresight 2012
Integrated city – Integrated lives
Global Futures& Foresight
Smart city development
• Integrated view of city governance.• Rationalise complex IT environments. • City-wide systems integration.• Engage cloud and outsourced services. • Outsource and cloud service management. • Network of solutions.
Global Futures& Foresight
Agenda
• Pace of change
• The journey
• Integrated approach
Global Futures& Foresight
UK urban population• 70m population by 2028, up 9m in 19 years. (ONS)
• Urban population rising:
– 50.3m in 1990
– 53.5m in 2005 – 59.6 million by 2030 (1).
• Single occupancy households to increase by 20% to 26 million by 2026. (from 2006).
Source (1): UN http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005WUP_DataTables3.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1567066/We-must-act-now-to-cut-immigrant-numbers.html
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/11937%20FFF%20Retail%20Futures%20WEB%20new%20version.pdf : Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/oct/21/uk-population-growth-70-million
Global Futures& ForesightTECHNOLOGY
Global Futures& Foresight
The Last 5-6 Years
What would you have done differently
if you’d seen any of this Coming?
• Youtube started• Telephone becomes a PC• Touch screens• Tablets• Internet boom• Social networks• The Cloud • Google Maps• Virtual worlds• Freemium business model• PayPal turns mainstream• Ebay turns us all to e-traders• Home video conferencing• Blogs, Wikis, Tweets, Peerindex & Klout• Robotic limbs
Just as much change coming in the next
five years
Global Futures& Foresight
First we do things differentlyThen we do different things
Global Futures& Foresight
The Era of the Supercomputer• By 2018 supercomputers
500 times faster than the most powerful today.
Source: PC World, June 2011 http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/230708/sgi_intel_plan_to_speed_up_supercomputers_500_times_by_2018.html
http://www.cse.tum.de/overview/cse.html
Global Futures& Foresight
New era of mass communication
• Today's Internet has 1.9 bn users.
• World population is 7 bn people.
• By 2020 Internet will have 5 bn users. National Science Foundation in the U.S for one predicts
• Connecting 3 billion people• Mostly in emerging markets
– 26% of global economic activity
– Half of businesses can’t get online.
– Africa – 1 internet connection/1,000 pc’s
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642
http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm
http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times
the Other 3 Billion
Global Futures& Foresight
Changing engagement
• 2020 - 35 zettabytes 44 times more than 2009.
• 75% of data already user generated:– Forwarding a link, rating a site, commenting on a blog,
twittering, sharing bookmarks, sharing your location, logging into websites, liking something on Facebook.
• Everywhere we go, everything we do, every move we make:– creates click-trails, – leaves digital breadcrumbs, – produces data exhaust, and creates meta-content.
Wired.com post and a related IDC study
Global Futures& Foresight
The Mobile Network - 2015
• Data traffic to increase 26-fold.
• 7bn mobile-connected devices.
• Speeds increase 10-fold. – Mobile-connected tablets will generate as
much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010.
– The average smartphone will generate 1.3 GB of traffic per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010.
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010–2015 – Feb 2011 http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf
Global Futures& Foresight
Engaging with technology
• Speech recognition and artificial intelligence (AI) enable natural user interface:– Gesture– Speech– Look
• Virtual assistants to serve as secretaries, tutors, salespeople.
• Almost all routine work (TechCast)
The keyboard and mouse are dead
Global Futures& Foresight
$35 Aakash Tablet Disruption
Global Futures& Foresight
80% of executives worldwide believe that enterprise-wide collaboration is the key to success.
Global Futures& Foresight
Social networks• Change the way we live
• Already changing social and political processes.
• Change the way we work• New Management processes
• Raise problems and allow those with a contribution to collaborate.
• Faster and more creative solutions.
Global Futures& Foresight
Artificial Intelligence
• Artificial Intelligence’s - we will interact with them just like humans.
• e-technology will have advanced to the point where there are fewer human interactions with a more strategic focus and broader capabilities
• Face recognition that identifies emotional changes.
Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394
24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available
Global Futures& Foresight
Engaging through technology
• Telepresence market to be worth $4.7 billion in 2014.
• As organisations cut:– Travel costs
– Carbon footprint
– Increase productivity (Winter Green Research, Techcast).
Source: TMC News http://www.tmcnet.com/channels/telepresence/articles/62985-telepresence-market-reach-47-billion-2014-report.htmSource: Venture Beat http://venturebeat.com/2010/03/04/virtual-events-keep-growing-and-even-comdex-makes-a-comeback-online/
Video Conferencing / Telepresence
Global Futures& Foresight
Surrounded by technology
• 15bn connected devices by 2015.
• Integrates physical & virtual world.
• Objects sense their environment and communicate its status.
• Tools to understanding complexity.
• Ubiquity creates new models.
Source(1): Forbes 2010 http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/20/internet-connectivity-personalization-technology-cio-network-sensors.html?boxes=HomepagechannelsSource(2): eLearnSpace, 2010 http://www.elearnspace.org/blog/2010/03/19/the-internet-of-things-2/
22 billion devices by 2020 ‘Internet of ‘things’
Global Futures& Foresight
Engaged in technology By 2019
• 3D virtual reality displays, • Embedded in glasses and contact
lenses. • Primary interfaces for communication
with other persons, computers, the Web, and virtual reality. (Kurzweil)
• Linking our senses directly with other people’s senses or with machines.
Global Futures& Foresight
Convergence of Online & Offline
Global Futures& Foresight
SMART CITY LIVING
Global Futures& Foresight
City living – use, don’t ownThe default mindset of the digital generation
Global Futures& Foresight
A life in context
• Where am I?
• What am I doing?
• Who’s around me?
• What would help me?– Where
– What
– Who
– How
Global Futures& Foresight
Smart (integrated) living
• Diary• Household systems• Weather• Transportation services• Smart grids• Office (if you go to one at all)• Environmental services• Retail• Entertainment
Identity
Payments
Global Futures& Foresight
Integration
• Vision
• Strategy
• Implementation
• Systems
• Infrastructure
• Data
Global Futures& ForesightCITY WIDE INTEGRATION
Global Futures& Foresight
OrganisationIndividualCommercial
Strategy
Operational
Purpose VisionResources Foresight
CultureBehaviourCycles
ValuesCommsCapability
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012
Next
Global Futures& Foresight
Individual
Strategy
Vision
Operational
ResourcesPurpose Foresight
CultureBehaviourCycles
ValuesCommsCapability
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012
NextCommercial Organisation
Global Futures& Foresight
“Organize” for … performance & customer satisfaction.
“Disorganize” for … renewal & innovation.
Global Futures& Foresight
Successful leaders of change
Global Futures& Foresight
Global Futures& Foresight
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
+44 7932 408901
david.smith@thegff.com
Imagine itThank you
www.linkedin.com/in/dasmithwww.thegff.com
davidsmithgff New report Full copy available from
www.thegff.comgfftv
Indicator at: elm.nextvisioningip.com
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