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State of Consumer VR & ARand
Predictions for 2018 & 2028
Charlie FinkContributor, Forbes.com
Contributing Editor, VR Voice
@charliefink
Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017
About Me
• Contributor, Forbes; Editor, VR Voice• Entrepreneur & Producer • President, AG Interactive 00-04• SVP, America Online 95-99• EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95• VP, Disney 85-92
• AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing
• Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster
• Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once
• The killer app is other people
Things I Know Are True
• Microsoft – Hololens, Microsoft VR• Apple - iGlass• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store for Gear• Google – Daydream, Magic Leap• Samsung – GearVR• Sony Playstation VR – Huge Installed Base
It’s All About The Guys At The Top of Pyramid
Wild Cards• Magic Leap
• Disruptive tech
• Apple AR
• Wearable (Probably)
• Microsoft Hololens
• Windows VR
• OEM
• The dark horse(s)
• Meta, ODG, Kopin, Epson Movio, Lenovo, Qualcomm
Early Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps
• Personal Computer
• Online Services (email)
• Shopping
• Social Media
• Smart Phones
• Messaging
• Photography
• Maps
• Music/Media
How People Are Exposed to VR• Mobile
• Cardboard
• GearVR
• Work
• VRcades
• Room Scale
• Free Roam
• Movies/Pop Culture
• The Matrix
• Ready Player One
Enterprise Goes First
• Military
• Design & Construction
• Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts
• Medical• Monitor Consolidation
• Heads Up Display
• Tele surgery
• Sales & Marketing
VR/AR Consumer Products
• 360 Video• Pro
• Consumer
• VR • Mobile
• Fully Immersive
• AR/MR• 3D Mobile Apps
• Wearable
360 Video – The Tip of the Spear
• Pro• News
• Entertainment
• Consumer• Travel
• Sports
AR
• Mobile (3D enhanced screens)• Pokemon Go
• Filters (Snapchat, FB, Lumyer)
• Snapdragon/Tango
• Wearable Computing • Microsoft Hololens
• ODG (wearable android phone)
• Apple i-Glass (?)
Home VR Systems
• Samsung GearVR – 5 Million
• Google Daydream -
• HTC Vive (Room Scale) – 500,000
• Oculus Rift – 250,000
• Playstation VR – 400,000
Path to Success for Home VR
• Awareness• Most people don’t know about VR
• Cost, Ease of Use• Plug and Play Products• Prices still high
• Compelling Non-Game content• Social/Telepresence
• Improvements in Optics, Ergonomics• Outward facing cameras enable MR
• Affordable haptics (touch)
Case Study: HTC, Playing the Long Game• Address the Exposure Problem
• Vrcades, Franchise Titles
• Nurture Developers and Relationships• Viveport
• Help Develop technology ecosystem via Venture Investments• Tools, Haptics, Social, Education, Sports,
Entertainment, Games, etc.
• Improve Content Quality & Distribution• The Netflix of VR
Location Based Entertainment (LBE)
• New Vrcades• IMAX VR
• Viveport
• Tick Tock Unlock
• Free Roam VR• The Void
• Zero Latency
• Dreamscape
• VR LBEs in the 90s• The mundane reality of retail
Predictions for June, 2018
• Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point
• 360 will become more commonplace
• Snapdragon will start to have an impact on AR and mobile VR
• Apple Ships iGlass version 1.0 for iPhone 10
• VR Comes to a Mall Near You
• More & much improved content for home VR systems
• Inter-operability and standards developed
• Magic Leap Comes Out, Ships Developer Version in 2018
Predictions for June, 2028
• Wearable computing commonplace
• All laptops and cell phones VR/AR Ready
• The Killer App will be telepresence (social)
• Second most popular VR app: Westword (casual game)
• Automated Trucks, Cars, commonplace
• AI, IoT, Automation will cause mass unemployment
• Medicare for all will pass the Congress
• We will need a much, much bigger room
THANK YOU!@charliefink
Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017
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