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Anticipatory Intelligence:
Four Enablers
New Trust Models
1
Publicly Available Information
(“Big Data” OSINT)
Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification
Anticipatory Intelligence:
Four Enablers
New Trust Models
2
Publicly Available Information
(“Big Data” OSINT)
Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification
3
20th Century Intelligence
4
20th Century Intelligence
Tracy Morrow (aka “Ice T”)
How can you identify a
legitimate hip-hop artist
(versus someone who just gets
up and rhymes)?
http://www.npr.org/2005/08/30/4824690/original-gangster-rapper-and-actor-ice-t
5
Tracy Morrow (aka “Ice T”)
How can you identify a
legitimate hip-hop artist
(versus someone who just gets
up and rhymes)?
“Game knows game, baby.”
20th Century Intelligence
6
Tracy Morrow (aka “Ice T”)
How can you identify a
legitimate hip-hop artist
(versus someone who just gets
up and rhymes)?
“If you have expert knowledge,
then you are capable of
answering complex questions
by interpreting domain specific
information.” [paraphrased]
20th Century Intelligence
21st Century Intelligence
• August Gorman carried out a
plot to grab fractions of a
penny from a corporate payroll
system. http://goo.gl/vAScel
7
IMDB: 4.9/10Rotten Tomatoes: 26/100
21st Century Intelligence
• Peter Gibbons hatches a plot
to write a computer virus that
grab fractions of a penny from
a corporate retirement
account. http://goo.gl/rDg1U
• Known in security circles as a
salami attack.
8
IMDB: 7.9/10Rotten Tomatoes: 79/100
21st Century Intelligence
• Peter Gibbons hatches a plot
to write a computer virus that
grab fractions of a penny from
a corporate retirement
account. http://goo.gl/rDg1U
• Known in security circles as a
salami attack.
9
IMDB: 7.9/10Rotten Tomatoes: 79/100
Takeaway point: Little bits of value (information) provide deep insights in the aggregate
Anticipatory Intelligence:
Four Enablers
New Trust Models
10
Publicly Available Information
(“Big Data” OSINT)
Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification
11
The Original “Big Data”
1880 US Census
•50 million people
•Data included: age, gender, number
of insane people in household*
•Took 7 years to tabulate
*Credit to Ken Krugler for this factoid: http://www.censusrecords.com/content/1880_census
12
The Original “Big Data”
1880 US Census
•50 million people
•Data included: age, gender, number
of insane people in household*
•Took 7 years to tabulate
1890
•63 million people
•Additional data: citizenship and
military service
•New technology: Hollerith Tabulating
System
•Took 6 weeks to tabulate (76x faster)
*Credit to Ken Krugler for this factoid: http://www.censusrecords.com/content/1880_census
13
The Original “Big Data”
1880 US Census
•50 million people
•Data included: age, gender, number
of insane people in household*
•Took 7 years to tabulate
1890
•63 million people
•Additional data: citizenship and
military service
•New technology: Hollerith Tabulating
System
•Took 6 weeks to tabulate (76x faster)
Takeaway
• Insights are unlocked by looking at
aggregate behaviors of groups in
society
• New technology is required
*Credit to Ken Krugler for this factoid: http://www.censusrecords.com/content/1880_census
Social Media: OSINT Explodes
14
More Observations
Enable New Analysis
15
Geolocated Social Media:
New Insights in Behavior
16
Anticipatory Intelligence:
Four Enablers
New Trust Models
17
Publicly Available Information
(“Big Data” OSINT)
Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification
Pizza Orders at the Pentagon
18http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1991-01-16/news/9101050225_1_frank-meeks-pizza-pentagon
19
Canadian Flu Research
http://gunther-eysenbach.blogspot.com/ Infodemiology paper: http://goo.gl/aeUZtA
20
Google Flu Trends
NPR: http://goo.gl/Iv7A87
NYT: http://goo.gl/mNyAi7
21
Correlation:
Box Office Hit Prediction
Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success: http://goo.gl/BWf7H1
Anticipatory Intelligence:
Four Enablers
New Trust Models
23
Publicly Available Information
(“Big Data” OSINT)
Proxy Variable Selection Radical Quantification
To Anticipate,
First Count Things
24http://www.sesamestreet.org/muppets/count-von-count
25
Famous Counting Advocate
26
Famous Counting Advocate
William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin
Aggregation:
A Tale of Two Products
The distribution we’re looking for looks like the #1 hand:Responses concentrated in the most positive category,With very few responses that were unfavorable.
Counting + Aggregation:
A Tale of Two Products
Anticipatory Intelligence
in 30 Seconds
30
1.Decide what information you trust
2.Acquire information from open sources
3.Look for proxy variables
4.Apply quantification + visualization
31
Contact information
Abe Usher
Email: abe@thehumangeo.com
Twitter: @abeusher
LinkedIn: http://goo.gl/DUxZOP
Presentation slides: http://www.slideshare.net/abeusher/anticipatory-intelligence
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