Aiello-Lammens: Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments

Matthew Aiello-LammensH. Resit Akçakaya

Stony Brook UniversityEcological Society of America 2013

•Land cover•Geology•Local accretion and erosion rates•SLR / climate change scenario

Sea-level Rise Model (SLAMM)

Land cover change through time

Demographic Model (RAMAS GIS)

Population size through time

Habitat suitability through time

Current species distribution

Habitat Suitability Model (MaxEnt)

Current demographic data

Integration of Sea-Level Rise model (SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis

(RAMAS GIS)

•Land cover•Geology•Local accretion and erosion rates•SLR / climate change scenario

Sea-level Rise Model (SLAMM)

Land cover change through time

Demographic Model (RAMAS GIS)

Extinction riskPopulation viability analysis

Habitat suitability through time

Current species distribution

Habitat Suitability Model (MaxEnt)

Current demographic data

Integration of Sea-Level Rise model (SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis

(RAMAS GIS)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Year

Rela

tive

valu

e to

201

0

Results

N (No SLR; Ceiling)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Year

Rela

tive

valu

e to

201

0

Results

∆ Carrying Capacity

N (No SLR; Ceiling)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Year

Rela

tive

valu

e to

201

0

Results

∆ Carrying Capacity

N (No SLR; Ceiling)

N (2m SLR; Ceiling)

Results

No

SLR

1m S

LR

2m S

LR

No

SLR

1m S

LR

2m S

LR

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.30

Extinction Decline to 20

Risk

No

SLR

1m S

LR

2m S

LR

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Expe

cted

Min

imum

A

bund

ance

JuvenilesAdult Males

Adult Females

Patterns? Patterns?

Risk

Processes?Processes?

Uncertainty

JuvenilesAdult Males

Adult Females

Patterns? Patterns? Processes?Processes?

Fecu

ndity

Surv

ival

, Adu

lt

Surv

ival

, Juv

enile

StdD

ev -

Surv

ival

, Adu

lt

StdD

ev -

Fecu

ndity

Carr

ying

Cap

acity

Disp

ersa

l

StdD

ev -

Surv

, Juv

enile

Corr

elati

on

Initi

al A

bund

ance

Rmax

- Co

ntes

t DD

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Δ Risk ExtictionΔ Risk to N=20

Risk

-Max

- Ri

sk-M

in P

aram

eter

Val

ueSensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Best Estimates

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainty

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainty

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertain Population and Vital Rate Parameters1. Adult Survival2. Variability of Adult Survival3. Fecundity (Juvenile Survival

and Maternity)4. Variability of Fecundity5. Dispersal6. Spatial Correlation7. Carrying Capacity8. Initial Abundance

Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited

Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons:

• 100• 250• 500• 1000• 10000

Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited

Relative Influence of Parameters - 10k Simulations

Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons:

• 100• 250• 500• 1000• 10000

Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited

Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons:

• 100 (100 sets)• 250 (40 sets)• 500 (20 sets)• 1000 (10 sets)• 10000

Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited

Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited

Parameter Relative Influence Values as Determined by BRT Analysis

Sample Size 10k Sample Size 100Fecundity 76.859 79.028Adult Survial 20.960 13.861Variability of Adult Survival 1.499 2.945

Variability of Fecundity 0.441 0.698

Carrying Capacity 0.184 0.628Spatial Correlation 0.025 0.700Dispersal 0.019 0.827Initial Abundance 0.013 1.312

Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

LHS

Unif

Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100

Adult Survival

Fecu

ndity

Nearest Neighbor Distance

Freq

uenc

yLH

SU

nifLH

SU

nif

100 250 500 1000

Corr

elati

on V

alue

1.0

1.0

0.85

0.85

Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K

LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif

No SLR 2m

SLR

100 250 500 1000

Corr

elati

on V

alue

1.0

1.0

0.85

0.85

Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K

LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif

No SLR 2m

SLR

2m SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity

Sensitivity AnalysisPaired Simulations for Impact Assessment

2010 2030 2050 2070 20900.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

Year

Rela

tive

valu

e to

201

0

2010 2030 2050 2070 20900.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

Year

Rela

tive

valu

e to

201

0

No SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Year

Rela

tive

valu

e to

201

0

N (No SLR; Ceiling)

N (2m SLR; Ceiling)

Sensitivity AnalysisPaired Simulations for Impact Assessment

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Year

Rela

tive

valu

e to

201

0

∆N Due to 2m SLR

Sensitivity AnalysisPaired Simulations for Impact Assessment

Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLRD

ensi

ty

Probability of Decline to 50

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Den

sity

Probability of Decline to 50

Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Den

sity

Probability of Decline to 50

Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Unpaired Bootstrap

Den

sity

∆ Probability of Decline to 50

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Mean Difference = 0.074

Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Unpaired Bootstrap

Den

sity

∆ Probability of Decline to 50

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Paired Simulations

Den

sity

∆ Probability of Decline to 50

-0.5 0.0 0.5

Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50

Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR

Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR

Freq

uenc

yFr

eque

ncy

LHS

Unif

LHS

Unif

Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50

∆ Probability of Decline to 50 (Result of 2m SLR)

LHS

Unif

LHS

Unif

Freq

uenc

yFr

eque

ncy

Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR

100 250 500 1000

Corr

elati

on V

alue

1.0

1.0

0.85

0.85

Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K

LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif

1.0

-0.5

0.0

No SLR 2m

SLR Paired

Current Implementations

Glossy Buckthorn - InvasiveEffects of land-use changeDensity dependence models

Passenger Pigeon – ExtinctionsEffects of land-use changeImpact of harvest / hunting

NA Herps – Impacts of Climate ChangeEffects of climate change scenarios

Acknowledgements:HR Akcakaya, J Stanton, A Cahill, G Sorrentino, H Ryu, E Kneip, K Shoemaker, M Aldred, S Sabatino, SERDP Collaborators

Funding:SERDP and NASA