A Post-Carbon Future: Practical Solutions to Global Warming and the Energy Crisis

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Practical Solutions to Global Warming and the Energy Crisis

Guy Dauncey

The Post-Carbon Future

Question:

We have been walking on two feet for six million years

Each generationhas successfully passed on

the wisdom in its genes and its knowledge.

Do you think future humans will do the same,

so that humans will be living and thriving on Planet Earth in a million years time?

YES NO“In a million years time”

YES NO

THE HUMAN JOURNEY

We’ve come a long way from this….

to this….

We live on the edge of one of 100 billion galaxies

We take almost all our energy from the Sun

8 minutes and 19 seconds ago,

the light and heat

we are seeing and feeling now

was on the surface of the Sun.

The Sun sends the energy that trees absorb and store

800,000 years ago, we discovered how to

make fire.

For 800,000 years, we used

firewood as our

primary source of energy.

Then we discovered coal…

Using coal, we started the industrial revolution

Then we discovered oil…

and natural gas…

Whether it’s coal, oil or gas, it’s all ancient fossilized solar energy,

stored for 100 million years.

..but the Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.

20,000 years

is the Age of Fossil Fuels

This10,000 years past

10,000 years future

Survey of petroleum geologistsOctober 2008

61% think already, or within ten years

International Energy Agency

Senior IEA official:

“The IEA has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering

panic buying.”

Terry Macalister, Guardian UK Nov 9 2009

Alberta’s oil sands…Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Only producing 1.2 million barrels a day.We consume 84 million barrels a day.

Out of gas - Chongquin, China

If we don’t prepare….

And then there’s climate change…

In 200 years, we are burning

most of that ancient solar energy… and then it’s gone.

As we burn the fossil fuels…

As we burn this ancient solar energy…

we release its carbon into the atmosphere.

CO2CO2

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

Deutsche Bank Near Madison Square Garden,

New York

www.dbcca.com

We have added

3.6 trillion tonnes of heat-trapping

greenhouse gases to our atmosphere.

Rising by 1,000 tonnes every second.

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Iqoncept Dreamstime.com

Smithore Dreamstime.com

Tatyana Chernyak Dreamstime.com

We are being besieged with negativity, and disbelief in our future.

It’s all about sustainability,

leadership…

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Antonia Dreamstime.com

… and our grandchildren

The Renaissance was the launch padfor the Scientific Revolution

Wikimedia

The Scientific Revolution was the launch padfor the Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Age becomes the launch-pad

for the Solar Age.

The incredible energy of fossil fuels has enabled us to build the scientific and technological capital

we need to advance beyond fossil fuels….

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

…into the Solar Age.

A 100% Shift to Renewable

Energy

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

Wood Solar Fossil Solar Solar Solar

Wikimedia

You are the midwives

of the Solar Revolution

100% Renewable

Energy

What does It look like?

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

1. Electricity

Solar PV40% growth pa

50-80 cents/kWh - and fallingGlobal Potential: Enormous

Solar PV in Germany

Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Dow’s Solar Shingles

Thin film solar

Thin film solar production

Price per Watt: 1985 = $10. 2010 = $4.

The module represents 50-60% of the total installed cost of a solar PV system

Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008

Solar market penetration

Solar Millennium AG

Solar thermal energy

The Sun radiates almost 1000 times more energy onto the Earth’s deserts

than humankind uses.

Large square 254 sq km, if all solar thermal= current world electricity use

Small square 110 sq km = current European Union usewww.trecers.org

Siemens AG

2006 prediction for 2009:

2009 reality:

www.wwindea.org

2007: 173 TWh2009: 340 TWh

Global technical potential: 410,000 TWh= 12 x global electricity needs

Proposed Green Power Corridors

Corporate Knights, Nov 2006

Europe’s geothermal resources at 5 km deep:

1 km3 of hot granite delivers 10 MW for 20 years

(900 TWh/year)

Available resource:125,000 km3

= 112,500,000 TWh/year

Spread over 1,000 years= 112,500 TWh/year

European energy use = 13,000 TWh/year

= 10 times Europe’s energy use

Tying it Together: The Distributed Grid

Bonneville Power Administration, WA

Smart Metering

20% reduction

Time of Use Metering

12% reduction

GermCost of electricity in Germany: 32 cents kWhOntario: 4 - 9 cents kWh

Efficiency+ smart metering+ wind energy+ solar PV+ solar thermal+ hydropower+ geothermal power+ tidal & wave power+ biomass power+ smart grid+ new storage technologies+ gradually phased out nuclear power

= 100% zero-carbon electricity

2. Transport without Oil

Ancient Technology - Feet

Toronto Walking School BusToronto Walking School Bus

Nanjing pedestrian street, Shanghai

Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, Korea

Cisco Systems

Cycling: 36% of all commute trips in Copenhagen are by bike. Goal is 50% by 2015.

San Francisco - safe protected bike lane

Electric bikes…. 1 cent per 20 km

Madsen urban utility bike ($1300)+ eZee motor and battery ($1300)

E-Biking with the whole family…

E-Zip electric bike - $350 from Walmart30 km range

Public Transit

Hasselt, Belgium: Free Transitincluded in city taxes

Since 1996, 11-fold increase in ridership

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net

Philly CarShare50,000 people share

270 vehicles

City reduced its fleet by 330 vehicles

Ride sharing…

Nissan Leaf EV. $25 - $30,000 Coming in 2011

Running cost under $10/week, plus $150/month battery lease.

Electric Vehicles

RWE Mobility.com

Guy Dauncey 2010Guy Dauncey 2010www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com CalCars.org

Louis Palmer and his Solar Taxi33,000 km around the world

$8 a week running cost

Walking+ cycling+ transit+ rail and light rail+ videoconferencing+ ridesharing+ carsharing+ electric vehicles+ plug-in hybrid electric vehicles+ biofuel capacity+ vehicle efficiency increase+ road pricing

= 100% zero carbon personal transport

Siemens AG

Smith Electric Trucks

www.smithelectricvehicles.com

Biofuel being grown from algae

Replacing aviation fuel with biofuel

New Scientist, Sept 2008

Replacing aviation fuel with biofuel

New Scientist, Sept 2008

Hypothetical large scale algae farm

Heat: can we generate it without fossil fuels?

Passive House,Frankfurt, Germany

Uses 95% less energy

Stockholm uses heat from treated sewage effluent

to provide hot water and heating to 80,000 apartments

- Stephen Salter, 2007

Pre-insulated piping used to heat homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia.

Delivers hot water at 200o C to customers up to 23 km away.

Photo and text by Jayson Antonoff

Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED)

Sutton, London, UK

Energy Centre

The Energy Centre

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels

800 solar hot water

panels on the garages

90% of residential space heating needs is met by

stored solar thermal energy (40-50oC)

Dockside Green, Victoria

15 acres, holistic design, all LEED Platinum55% less energy than model building code

www.docksidegreen.com

Pearl River Tower

Guangzhou, China

Heat Exchange

A heat exchange floor being laid

Air-sourceGround-sourceWater-sourceSewer-source

Ice-Source

Geothermal Radial DrillingEuropean geo-drilling technique

http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com

Ice-Source Heat

Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

Solar hot water

Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany

Solar thermal + Solar PV + Skylights

Wood Pellets Stove

= wood pellet plants

LondonUse of infrared heat leakage mapping

to identify priorities for energy retrofitting.

www.hotmapping.co.uk

The Road to Success

GussingGussing

GussingPopulation 8,000

Small, isolated, forested. 1988, one of the poorest regions in Austria

Few local jobs. 70% of local people worked in Vienna (160 km) or Graz (90 km)

$8 million annual bill for fuel and energy

Early 1990s, policy proposal calling for the complete abandonment of all fossil-fuel-based energy

Gussing

Since 1995, they have achieved a

93% transition off fossil fuels.

= 93% reduction in their carbon footprint.

Heat, electricity and fuel

from forest biomass, corn, waste cooking

oil, & solar.

Continuous biomass gasification of wood

Solar-biomass plant

Biomass electrical power plant4500 kW long distance heat and 2000 kW electricity

from 1760 kg of wood per hour.

Biodiesel from canola,

sunflowers, waste cooking oils, and fats

Gussing School100 m2 solar thermal plant saves 15,000 kWh/year.

10 kW Solar PV plant generates 9,000 kWh/year. Annual income = approx. Euros 5,400.

Long distance heat plant Burns sawdust and chopped forest timberDrying kiln for timber, heat for 200 homes

+ 40 large buildings

594 kW solar and biomass plant39 customers

2.5 kilometres heat network850,000 kWh heat per year

Long distance heat supply41 customers600 kW boiler

2.5 kilometres heat supply

Since 199527 new decentralized power plants60 new companies, 1,200 new jobs

Ecotourism brought 30,000 visitors in 2007

Biomass heat and power facility

Gussing’s organizational centre:

European Centre for Renewable Energy

5 Corporate Divisions:

1. Education, Solar School2. Installation3. Energy Self-Sufficient Region4. Zero Emission Power Plants5. Energy Efficiency

EAR - Energy Autarkic Region

EAR is a proven concept which not only conserves valuable energy, but also re-injects a high proportion of investment into the local economy.

It keeps money in the local area, creates new jobs, and greatly reduces emissions.

bioenergy.asu.edu

Bioenergy

Bioenergy Method ResultAlgae

Animal wastes

Crop wastes

Food wastes

Garbage

Landfill gas

Sawdust

Seaweed

Sewage sludge

Switchgrass

Used oils

Wood wastes

Woody plants

Anaerobic digestion

Biogas collection

Combustion

Crush, pulp and purify

Enzymatic digestion

Fermentation

Photobioreaction

Liquid pyrolysis

Depolymerization

Thermal gasification

Transesterification

Biobutanol

Biochar

Biocrude

Biodiesel

Bioethanol

Biogas

Electricity

Hydrogen

Bioplastics

What’s needed to accelerate progress?

1.A Compelling Vision

• Convey what Sault will look and feel like in the future.

• Alternative Energy Capital, climate action, clean tech, peak oil resilience, and the transition to a sustainable future all come together in a shared vision.

• Use the arts, prose, performance.

2. A Strategic Plan

• A coordinated strategy for the City, businesses and community entities, to get everyone aligned.

• Ontario’s Green Energy Act creates ideal foundation• Need to lobby Ottawa to keep ecoEnergy

• Host of frustrating barriers to overcome

• 10 Sectoral working groups, to work on all the core dimensions - Chicago, Whistler.

• Full time Director of Sustainability.

3. Community engagement

• Households, schools, businesses, service clubs.

• Annual awards and celebrations for the “greenest home”, “greenest business”, “greenest block”, “greenest school”.

This is a great opportunity

to build a sustainable future

Solutions for Individuals Champions Communities Businesses Farmers Transport Energy Companies Governments Developing Nations Global

You are the midwives

of the Solar Revolution

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

www.theclimatechallenge.ca

A Post-Carbon Future: Practical Solutions to Global Warming and the Energy Crisis

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