Analisi 121212

Dream Chasers PresentsFinally there is a light at the end of the Tunnel

ANALISIA hairsplitting study of thoroughbred racing in India

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Mission Statement• Making Racing an Exciting Experience• Wealth Creation for all stake holders• Promoting Horse Racing as an Investment Option

– Without much information wagering of money on an event with an uncertain outcome is called “Gambling”

– With Scientifically analyzed information wagering of money on an event with an uncertain outcome is called “Investment”

The Team• Members from the winning team of the highest possible

technology award in India • Gold Medalist in all India Software Programming

competition• Gold medalist from IIM• NSG Commando• Achievers in their respective fields

Market Summary• Racing Industry existed 600 years before Christ – (Reference in “The

Richest Man in Babylon”)

• More than a century old Industry in India - Introduced by the British

• More than 3000 horses in training• More than 4000 mares in breeding• 85+ breeding establishments & 9 Racing Centers• 200+ racing days & 1600+ races in a year• Multi-Billion INR Industry• A Royal Sport with lot of feel of achievement and

excitement for all involved

Business Concept• Analisi is a Horse Race Prediction System–Analysis through the use of a structured

frame work–Power of Analytics–Highly Dynamic & Based on Artificial

Intelligence– Inbuilt Feed-Forward Mechanism–Based on measurable parameters–More than 7,000 races and 60,000

runners analyzed

Business Concept• Divided into Four Parts

1. Data Collection• 150+ direct data points & 3000+ indirect data points

2. Preprocessing• Converting the various data to useful information

3. Machine Learning & Predication• Supervised Learning & Unsupervised Learning

– Neural Networks– Classification – Logic – Automated Reasoning– Decision Tree & Regression

4. Action for Investment• Need to observe the race time developments

Analisi – Data Collection 1

All common parameters for a particular Race is captured through this user interface

Basic details

Distance

Class

Analisi – Data Collection 2

All specific parameters for the particular Horse is captured through this user interface, this is done prior to the race

Track Preparations, indication to

Trainer habits

Runners

Dam & Sire, its all in the

blood

Owner, avoid gambling owners

Foal Date,Astrology?

Numerology?

Trainer & Jockey, better jockeys

get good mounts

Draw Number & Equipments

Track works, Indication for fitness of the

horse

Analisi – Data Collection 3

What Happened during the race ? - Even very minute details of all the runners are made available to Analisi through this user interface, this is done after the Race with the help of video

Horses in finished order

Pace of the Race a major contributor

for the final time.

Odds at various stage

Final position & timing

Various trip issuesVarious trip issues

Was it a genuine effort

or preparation?

Steward’s view about the running

of the horse

Presently these info not available. Hope

clubs will do something about this.

Pole position, clear indication for running style

& trainer instructions

Analisi – Data Collection 4

Track Variant for all the races are calculated and adjusted with final time using this interface. This is an automated process with some human touch

TV (Track Variant) per race basis. Multiple factors affect the final time of the race, like1. Underfoot conditions2. Wind direction during the race3. Humidity4. Caliber of the jockey5. Pace of the Race6. Weight carried – (Studies shows not much importance)

TV helps to bring all race time to same platform for comparison. Studies shows that generalizing TV for a day is not suited for Indian turf conditions.

Analisi - Preprocess• Captain’s Rating

– Similar to Bayer’s rating for international viewers– Optimized for Indian Turf and Indian race practices– “Par Time” and “Machine like” reference horses method – Predicative method

• Predicated rating for every race• Horses with rating close to the predicated rating are

contenders

Captain’s Rating doesn't rely on miracles

Analisi – Preprocess• Various Factors : Using Analytics Technology to

unearth more and more Winning Patterns– On Job Factor

• Whether a particular Horse will be on job or not– Jockey Factor

• Based on jockey’s present form, business & personal relationship with Trainer and Owner

– Odds Factor • India have most strike rate for favorite winning, it also

represent majority’s opinion– Trainer, Pedigree, Distance, Track, Class & Form

Factors• Based on multiples of proven theories

Preprocess – Example (Trainer Factor)

This is based on Game Theory: Very useful mathematical model for conflict situations like trainers strategy in running his horses. Please refer to link below for more details.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

AI – Decision Tree making its Predication

Decision Tree as a predictive model that take the inputs and predict the out come of the race. Different Decision Trees like Classification and Regression Trees employed for Analisi. Please refer to link below for more details.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree_learning

AI – Neural Network making its Predication

It is a mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks. Please refer to link below for more details.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network

AI – Bayesian Network making its Predication

Bayesian networks can solve decision problems under uncertainty by using influence diagrams. Please refer to link below for more details.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network

Opportunities – Owners–Unbiased opinion on their ward

Opportunities – Trainers– Entering horses for right Distance and Class

hence increasing the win chance– Possible views to other trainers race strategy

Opportunities - Jockeys– Accepting mounts with realistic chance to win

Opportunities – Investors–Well informed decision on investment–Avoiding high risk investments

Opportunities – Bookies– Knowing the real potential of all runners so

profitable book making

Risks - Accidents

Racing Accidents :- Nothing much can be done about it.Still we may avoid races with too many runners

Risks - Fitness

Information on veterinary problem of horses on race day are not generally known.

To some extent this problem can be overcome by training your eyes for paddock look.

- A Picture perfect horse performs to its true potential- A restless horse fails most of the time- Increase/Decrease of more than 4% of its weight is a bad sign- We have video tutorial coming-up to help you.

Risks - Malpractices

Crookedness by certain Professionals

We may overcome this problem by- avoiding races/horses with certain unreliable connections- races with too much fluctuating odds- races with many interconnected professionals/owners

Our Thanks & Contact Details• Artificial Intelligence– IIT Kharagpur, India– Stanford University, California

• Web Sites – www.rwitc.com– www.bangaloreraces.com– www.indiarace.com– www.racingpulse.in– www.bolrace.com

• Inspiration– Book "Bringing Down the House" by Ben Mezrich

– Book "The Richest Man in Babylon" by George Samuel Clason

• Our Family & Friends

Predication done at Mid-Stage are published at www.analisiracing.blogspot.com

For more info please contact us at analisiracing@gmail.com

AdiosCaptain