Shared and Divergent Histories Drive Future Dynamics of the Mongolian Plateau

Shared & Divergent Histories Drive Future Dynamics of the Mongolian Plateau

GINGER R.H. ALLINGTON, WEI LI, JIQUAN CHEN, RANJEET JOHN, DANIEL G. BROWN

Rangelands as socio-ecological systems

(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)

(Wang et al. 2013 Glob Env Chng)

(Ulambayar et al. 2013 Rangelands )

(Bai et al. 2013 Science)

Modeling entire systems

System dynamics models• Provide insight into a

system's structure• Because of feedback

loops, it’s often difficult to infer the behavior of a system from its causal structure.

• Can be used to simulate alternative scenarios of system under different initial or boundary conditions.

NPP

Livestock

Biomass-

+

++

PROCESS NOT PRODUCT

Mongolian Plateau: divergent systems

(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)

Human Sector

Land

Use Sector

Environmental Sector

Suhkbatar modelHuman Sector

Land

Use Sector

Environmental Sector

1: Increased Precipitat

ion

2/3: End Environm

ental Policies

4: No Env Policies / Decreased Urbanization

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Xilingol

1: Increased Urbanization & Industrialization

3: Increased Privatization

2: Rural Infrastructure Development

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Suhkbaatar

SCENARIOSXILINGOL SUHKBAATAR

Baserun: Continuation of current

conditions.

Scenario 1: Increased precipitation.

Scenario 2: No grassland protection

policies.

Scenario 3: No restrictions to crop

expansion.

Scenario 4: “Worst Case”

Baserun: Continuation of current conditions.

Scenario 1: Increased

urbanization/industrializationScenario 2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure developmentScenario 3: Increased privatization of resources & services

Model outputs and predictions-Xilingol

Baserun: Continuation of

current conditions.

1: Increased precipitation.

2: No grassland protection

policies.

3: No restrictions to crop

expansion.

4: “Worst Case”

Model outputs and predictions-Xilingol

Baserun: Continuation of

current conditions.

1: Increased precipitation.

2: No grassland protection

policies.

3: No restrictions to crop

expansion.

4: “Worst Case”

Model outputs and predictions-Suhkbaatar

Baserun: Continuation of current

conditions.

1: Increased

urbanization/industrialization2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure development3: Increased privatization of resources & services

Model outputs and predictions-Suhkbaatar

Baserun: Continuation of current

conditions.

1: Increased urbanization/industrialization2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure development3: Increased privatization of resources & services

But REALLY??

Key factors influencing dynamics of the two systems

1. Urbanization2. Policies promoting protection and restoration of grasslands (IMAR)3. Policies limiting cropland expansion (IMAR)4. Policies promoting rural infrastructure that supports community cooperation and mobility (MG)

KEY AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY:-Urbanization trends into the future; rural/urban flows -Impacts of CBRMs-Market Access -Absentee herders-Herd structure/composition-Categorical grassland classifications