Sea level rise science

SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ESTUARY

THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY

WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?

WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?

MSL is defined as the zero elevation for a local area.

MSL is usually described as a surface that is the arithmetic mean of hourly water elevations observed over a specific 19-year cycle.

This definition averages out tidal highs and lows caused by the changing effects of the gravitational forces from the moon and sun.

WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?

HOW DO WE TRACK SEA LEVEL?

TIDE GAUGES

SATELLITES

GEOLOGY

A RISING RIVER

‣ Hudson River is over 12” higher than a century ago

‣ 21st Century SLR is much more rapid and seems to be accelerating

1856-2010: 1.7mm/yr1996-2013: 3.7mm/yr

rolling 5 year average2000 - 2011: 6.76mm/yr

Hudson River Sea Level 1856-2013

(in mm, observed at Manhattan

What causes the sea level to change?

What causes the sea level to change?

What causes the sea level to change?

LAND-BASED ICE CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE

LAND-BASED ICE CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE

What causes the sea level to change?

What causes the sea level to change?

What causes the sea level to change?

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL RISE

SEA LEVEL RISE: PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE

FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

PREDICTING FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

OCEAN WARMING (THERMAL EXPANSION)

GLACIERS AND ICE CAPS

GREEENLAND

ANTARCTICA

TOTAL SEA LEVEL RISE

Levermann A et al. PNAS 2013;110:13745-13750

2.3m/degree C

4.2ft/ degree F

Text

PAST AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

from Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2008

SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS FOR HUDSON RIVER

Shown is the central range (middle 67%) of values from model-based probabilities rounded to the nearest inch.2 The rapid ice melt scenario is based on acceleration of recent rates of ice melt in the Greenland and West

Antarctic Ice sheets and paleoclimate studies.

BIODIVERSITY WATERFRONTS INFRASTRUCTURE

SEA-LEVEL RISE

Resources at Risk

FLOODING

FLOODING

A NEW NORMALSTORM SURGE EVENTS

‣ Number or frequency of events: trend unclear

‣ Higher intensity events

‣ Greater frequency of surge events in warmer years

HURRICANE SANDY

2011: Hurricane Irene

‣ 4.5FT STORM SURGE

2012: Hurricane Sandy

‣ 6.25FT STORM SURGE

A NEW NORMALSTORM SURGE EVENTS

COASTAL HAZARD:Coastal Inundation

ACCELERATING COASTAL

RISKS

.2

3

.2

3 .2

3

.2

3

.2

3

adapted from Climate Central

‣ elevated coastal storm heights and impacts

2100

se

a l

eve

l ri

se

6”

12”

18”

24”

30”

36”

42”

48”

54”

100yr

500yr

MODELING SEA-LEVEL RISE

ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER

ESTUARY

‣ 9300+ acres inundated by 2100

‣ 11,000+ acres at risk of greater flooding frequency/depth

SEA-LEVEL RISE IN

THE HUDSON RIVER

ESTUARY

Tools

‣ Sea Level Rise Mapper

www.scenichudson.org/slr

Sea Level Rise Mapper

Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River,

promising to transform riverfront communities and the

ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources

for communities to plan for a more resilient future.

About Sea Level Rise

News

Mapping

Waterfront Forums

Task Forces

Kingston

Resources

Legal Tools

Smart Growth

Principles

Science Sources

Case Studies

SEA LEVEL RISE

SEA-LEVEL RISE IN THE

HUDSON RIVER

ESTUARY

Tools

‣ Inundation Zones

‣ FEMA Flood Zones

‣ Census Information

‣ Tidal Wetlands & SAV

‣ Municipal Assets

‣ Brownfields and HazMat sites

‣ Community Summaries

Sea Level Rise Mapper

Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River,

promising to transform riverfront communities and the

ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources

for communities to plan for a more resilient future.

About Sea Level Rise

News

Mapping

Waterfront Forums

Task Forces

Kingston

Resources

Legal Tools

Smart Growth

Principles

Science Sources

Case Studies

SEA LEVEL RISE

FUTURE INUNDATION AREAS

DATA LAYERS

DATA LAYERS

COMMUNITY SUMMARIES

PEOPLE AT RISK

72” OF SLR

At Risk From Flooding At Risk From Flooding

HOUSEHOLDS

Inundation

Flooding

PEOPLE

Inundation

Flooding

3,654

11,929

6,911

22,221

ASSETS AT RISK

72” of SLR

RAIL LINES

102 miles

401 miles

inundation

flooding

ASSETS AT RISK

72” of SLR

RAIL LINES

102 miles

401 miles

BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATS

51 sites

195 sites

inundation

flooding

ASSETS AT RISK

72” of SLR

RAIL LINES

102 miles

401 miles

BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATS

51 sites

195 sites

TREATMENT PLANTS

3 plants

11 plants

inundation

flooding

VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE

Wastewater Treatment Plants

VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE

Wastewater Treatment Plants

TIDAL WETLANDS OF THE HUDSON

THE RETURN OF HUDSON RIVER ISLANDS

THE FUTURE OF TIDAL HABITATS

5,000 years ago Today

sediment and peat

formationFuture

wetland migration

potential where there is

vacant land

complete wetland loss

where shoreline is

hardened

200720202040206020802100

Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp

Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh

Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat

Developed Upland

Undeveloped Upland

Upland Wetland

200720202040206020802100

Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp

Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh

Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat

Developed Upland

Undeveloped Upland

Upland Wetland

GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE

‣ How can we reduce risks to people, property and nature?

‣ What should our goals be for addressing climate change?

“Skate to where the puck is going to be...” - Wayne Gretsky

“Manage the unavoidable, and avoid the unmanageable”

- Rip Rapson

RESOURCES

‣ SCENIC HUDSONwww.scenichudson.org/slr

‣ CLIMATE CENTRALwww.sealevel.climatecentral.org

‣ US GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

www.globalchange.gov/browse/educators

‣ HUDSON RIVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OBSERVING SYSTEM

www.hrecos.org