Mission 2020: Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation

J o h a n R o c k s t r ö mStockholm Resilience Centre14 November, COP23

Ro a d m a p fo r ra p i d d e c a r b o n i s a t i o nTranslating the Paris Agreement in to action

Translating the Paris Agreement into action

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Halving emissions every decade is

consistent with

Paris Agreement

Pink: medium 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with 50–66% chance; orange: likely 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with >66% chance; blue: 1.5 °C scenarios—limiting warming in 2100 to below 1.5 °C with >50%

chance.

Emissions profiles consistent with 1.5C (dark blue)2C (orange and pink) Rogelj et al. NatureCC 2015

Three years to safeguard our climateFigueres et al Nature Climate Change 2017

8

37 billion

tonnes

In 2017, global

carbon dioxide

emissions from

fossil fuels and

industry will reach

around 37bn

tonnes of carbon

dioxide. Total emissions from all

sources: approx 41GtCO2Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017

2% growth

The land and ocean absorb

around half the emissions

Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017

8

… but atmospheric

concentrations continue to rise8

8Proposing Decadal Pathways. Globally, halving emissions every decade is consistent with the Paris Agreement goal to hold rise to “well below 2°C”.

Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhuber, H.J., 2017. “A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.” Science (80-. ), 355, 1269–1271.

Red line: Carbon budget following halving circa: 550GtCO2 to 2060. Grey area: Carbon budget 750GtCO2

to 2060.

We are already on the right trajectoryRenewables: Share of primary energy: doubling every 5-6 years

Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

We are already on the right trajectoryRenewables: Share of primary energy

If doubling pace continues, primary energy will be 100% renewable before 2050

Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade

Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade

Decadal roadmap

Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

J o h a n R o c k s t r ö mStockholm Resilience Centre14 November, COP23

Ro a d m a p fo r ra p i d d e c a r b o n i s a t i o nTranslating the Paris Agreement in to action