ICES ASC Plenary lecture "Integrated science for integrated management: fairy tale or finally...

Integrated Ecosystem Science for

Integrated Ecosystem-based Management: Fairy tale

or Finally here?

f a i r y t a l e

an engaging story that ultimately requires a sequence of far-fetched events

Bocaccio Canary Rockfish

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Mea

n nu

mbe

r per

traw

l

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010

5

10

15

20

Levin et al. (2006) Conservation Biology

Redbanded Rockfish Pacific Ocean Perch

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Mea

n n

umbe

r p

er

tra

wl

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010

5

15

25

35

45Redbanded Rockfish Pacific Ocean Perch

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Mea

n n

umbe

r p

er

tra

wl

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010

5

15

25

35

45

that w a s t h e n

t h i s i s n o w

Overfishing (unsustainable fishing mortality)

Overfished (biomass

below limit)Things are OK

California Current Groundfish

from Levin & Wells (2012)

42% of assessed groundfish overfished

Then Now

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA)

• NO– In general, this is good single-species management

– Sometimes, informed by emerging ecological knowledge

This success is the result of Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) and IEAs, right?

In conclusionWe don’t need

Integrated Ecosystem Assessments

Questions?

On the other handBy definition,

s u s t a i n a b l e fishing means k i l l i n g

lots of fish.

Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems

Mean Trophic Level of Groundfish

probably caused by combination of recruitment variability and fishing

Pi /Bi(Annual productionper unit biomass)

Diet composition

(1 – EE) • Pi /Bi(Annual production

lost as detritus)Detrituspreyl

Qi /Bi(Annual consumptionper unit biomass)

preyj

preyk

Yi(Annual productiontaken by fisheries)

Bi(Biomass of

functional group i)predatorz

predatorx

predatory

Annual production

taken by predators;

based on predator

diets, B, Q/B

Pi /Bi(Annual productionper unit biomass)

Diet composition

(1 – EE) • Pi /Bi(Annual production

lost as detritus)Detrituspreylpreyl

Qi /Bi(Annual consumptionper unit biomass)

preyjpreyj

preykpreyk

Yi(Annual productiontaken by fisheries)

Bi(Biomass of

functional group i)predatorzpredatorz

predatorxpredatorx

predatorypredatory

Annual production

taken by predators;

based on predator

diets, B, Q/B

What is the impact of shifting (groundfish) trophic level on ecosystem structure and function?

ecopath with ecosim

ResponseSpecies group Instantaneous Dynamic (10 yr)

Phytoplankton small zooplankton

carnivorous zooplankton amphipods

krill jellies

pandalid shrimp crabs squid

forage fish salmon

lower TL groundfish albacore seabirds

harbor seals whales

Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems

Fishing can affect the ecosystem

Chorizo crusted cod

Biom

ass

in th

e w

ater

Chorizo crusted cod

Biom

ass

in th

e w

ater

Gamba

s al a

jillo

Chorizo crusted cod

Biom

ass

in th

e w

ater

Agric

ultu

re

•Ecosystems provide a large number of goods and services

•These services interact, often in ways we don’t understand

•People place different values on different services

EBM Challenge

What do we do? Where do we do it?

How much?

Integrated Ecosystem Assessments

• Science for i n t e g r a t e d ocean & coastal management

w h a t is a healthy ecosystem?

i s the ecosystem health?

n o w what do we do?

What is a healthy

ecosystem?

SCOPING

STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT

Is the ecosystem healthy?ECOSYSTEM STATUS• INDICATORS AND REFERENCE POINTS

• RISK ASSESSMENT

Now what do we do?

SCENARIO ANALYSIS• Evaluate the likely tradeoffs associated with management alternatives

What is an ecosystem (or species)?

Scientists, fishers, divers“pile sort”

100

80

60

40

20

0

Sim

ilarit

y

Salm

on

Oth

er

flatf

ish

Jelly

fish

Copp

erRe

dstr

ipe

Gre

enst

ripe

dPu

get S

ound

Oth

er

fora

ge

Seal

s

Crab

s

Hak

ePo

llock

Cabe

zon

Sabl

efish

Ratfi

shLi

ngco

dCo

dKe

lp,

Stag

Pile

per

chSt

riped

Rock

fish

B

Dog

fish

Orc

a

Sand

lanc

e

Dov

er,

Hal

ibut

Rock

fish

A Blac

k

structure of folk taxonomiesBeaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters

Beaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters

scientific taxonomy

folk taxonomies(including fish biologists, divers, fishers)

eye

of the

beholderyear

1977 2010

inde

x of

abu

ndan

ce

Adrian Stier et al. in prep

Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a parameterized concept mapping where qualitative static models that are translated into semi-quantitative dynamic models.

Adrian Stier et al. in prep

e

Food web structure differs

Adrian Stier et al. in prep

Adrian Stier et al. in prep

people (even fisheries scientists) don’t

perceive the world the same way

this can causeconfusion,

conflict,

chaos

If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true

we have to make sure we all hear the same story

EBM

ecosystem-based management targets

desired future state of the socio-ecological system

what is a ‘good’ environment?

management targets are a societal choice

informed by science

but how?

Ecological Relationships

Societal Preferences

Management Targets

Ecological Relationships

Eelgrass

Puget Sound food web model• 66 functional groups (bacteria to orcas) from Central Puget Sound• 15 different fishery types• Direct connections are mainly predator-prey interactions• Strength of connections is a function of diets, consumption rates,

production rates and predator-prey functional responses

Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems

Effects of eelgrass change on mediated groups• Averaged across all mediation strength combinations (strong, moderate, weak)

• Wild, pink salmon groups most sensitive; effect carries to subadults

• Crab, hatchery salmon responses were intermediate

• Herring were least sensitive

Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems

Effects of eelgrass change on rest of food web

Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems

Societal Preferences

how much eelgrass do you want?

Underwater (Marine Life)

Rural Growth

Urban Development

Shorelines

Eelgrass

Ecosystem Services

Overwater structure

Sediment Loading

NutrientsShoreline Armor

Herring Crabs

BirdsKiller whales

Salmon

Costs Costs

Rehr, Williams, Tolimieri, Levin 2014 Coastal Management

What is the effect of changes in human activities on eelgrass?

What is the effect of changing eelgrass on Puget Sound marine life?

What does this all cost?

Rehr, Williams,, Levin 2014 Marine Policy

-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%-2

-1

0

1

2

Change is eelgrass cover

Ave

rage

Des

irab

ility

Levin, Rehr, Norman, & Wiliams in prep

-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Change in eelgrass cover

Ave

rage

Des

irab

ility

DemocratsRepublicans

• given the diverse costs and benefits of eelgrass restoration, Puget Sound citizens would like to see 10-20% more eelgrass

• normative orientation influences preferred restoration level, and

• policy makers will now have knowledge of how different constituents view restoration

existential questions…• does this reduce the influence of science?• does this lead to less conservation?• is this raising a white flag of surrender?

or• is this the real world in a democracy?

If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true

we (scientists) can’t write the story alone

Telling the EBM story

Woe is me…

No data…no certainty…no money…no this…not that

Ackoff, R. (1989) From data to wisdom. J. Appl Systems Analysis

How do we get from information to wisdom?

Her

ring

roe

Pur

se s

eine

Herring roe-on-kelp Gathered by hand

Sea b

irds

Age-structured simulation model of herring and fishery

Herring Biology• Constant adult mortality.• Constant weight-at-age• Sex ratio = 0.5. • Variable recruitment• Unfished Biomass (B0; 24,000 mt females)

Fishery• Fishery closes at 0.2B0

Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review

Roe harvest via purse seine

Roe-

on-k

elp

harv

est

Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review

If I am willing to accept a 10% risk of the fishery closing,what is the “safe operating space” ?

Providing for predators

Ignoring prey needs of predators

Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review

These are timely results… the more modeling that is encompassing and holistic, the better – Council of the Haida Nation

We are really excited about this herring model. It will be useful as we think about herring conservation this year-Parks Canada

Even donkeys can be useful

If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true

We must answer the questions that managers ask, but also the questions that should have asked

An IEA Fairy tale can come true if

• We engage stakeholders, managers, & policy makers early, often and continually

• We conduct rigorous human dimensions research as a core component of IEAs (not an add-on)

• We don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good

• Embrace realistic expectations about IEA science

• Serve current management needs, but not at the expense of more integrative ocean management

Samhouri, Haupt, Levin, Link, Shuford 2013 ICES J Mar Sci

In a utilitarian age, of all other times, it is a matter of grave importance that fairy tales should be respected."

~Charles Dickens~

"If you want your children to be intelligent, read them fairy tales. If you want them to be more intelligent, read them more fairy tales.”

~Albert Einstein~

• Understand the human dimensions of the ecosystem -- beyond commercial revenue

• Develop management strategies that work for people• Meet legal & policy requirements -- & ethical obligations• Identify & understand trade-offs• Maintain & improve the wellbeing of people

-- in ways that also maintain & improve the integrity of ecosystems

Why Assess Human Wellbeing?