Complexity and Autonomy of Social Science

ComplexityComplexity and Autonomy and Autonomy of Social Scienceof Social Science??

The problem of detachment

Juozas KasputisXX ISES Summer University

June 26, 2015

OutlineOutline• Classical scientific inquiry • Complexity oriented scientific inquiry• Application of complexity to the study of social

realities• Questions for the future

”...how absurd it is to try to contest our society without ever conceiving the very limits of the language by which (instrumental relation) we claim to contest it: it is trying to destroy the wolf by lodging comfortably in its gullet.”

R. Barthes, ”Empire of Signs”, 1992

”Much of the history of science, like the history of religion, is a history of struggles driven by power and money.”

F. Dyson, ”The Scientist as Rebel”, 2006

““Two cultures” of knowledge Two cultures” of knowledge The 16th – 17th centuries: breaking up with philosophy

BaconUtilitarian turn, applicability of science, experiments, interrogation of Nature

DescartesDualism of matter and mind, supremacy of reason, clockwork mechanism of Nature

NewtonUniversal laws of motion and gravitation

Linearity, reversible Linearity, reversible processprocess

Current state

Past state, retrodictability,

“a history”

Future state, predictability,

“a prophecy”

Linearity, reversible Linearity, reversible processprocess

Initial Conditions & Universal Laws −→ Predicting the State of the System in the near Future

Initial Conditions & Universal Laws −→ Retrodicting the State of the System in the near Past

Theory of Everything:Theory of Everything:the failure of ultimate the failure of ultimate

explanationsexplanations

“There is no formula that can deliver all truth, all harmony, all simplicity. No Theory of Everything can ever provide total insight. For, to see through everything, would leave us seeing nothing at all.”

J.D. Barrow, ”New Theories of Everything: The quest for ultimate explanation”, 2007

Major features of complex Major features of complex systemssystems

• Emergence (properties of system emerge from interaction of constituent parts)

• Low level of predictability at a point in time (a low or even zero ability to predict the state of the system)

• Limited cognition of individual agents (imperfect understanding)

• Multiple possible histories (the potential to move in a variety of different ways) !!!

Non-linear dynamicsNon-linear dynamicsSteady state – bifurcation – chaos, long range of possibilitiesSteady state – bifurcation – chaos, long range of possibilities

http://www.critcrim.org/redfeather/chaos-crm/004control.html

Linear and non-linear Linear and non-linear dynamicsdynamics

Improbability and informative content Improbability and informative content

of theoryof theory”...if growth of knowledge means that we operate with theories of increasing content, it must also mean that we operate with theories of decreasing probability (in the sense of the calculus of probability). Thus if our aim is the advancement or growth of knowledge, then a high probability (in the sense of the calculus of probability) cannot possibly be our aim as well: these two aims are incompatible.” K. Popper, ”Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge”, 2008

New knowledge and New knowledge and uncertaintyuncertainty

• Metaphor• Utopia

Metaphor is suggesting analogy between ideas and objects.

Utopia is a metaphor for new society, social critique and anticipation.

Proposal for the reconstruction of present society implying new social reforms.

Social sciences as „disguised literature”?

• Conceptual model• Thought experiment

(Gedankenexperiment)

Model as analogy between abstract theory and natural reality.

The research of natural systems beyond the limit of what has been observed.

The boundary of the physically possible is stretched to the full extent of what the laws of nature will permit.

By exploring these boundaries, new insights are gained, new hypotheses are formulated.

Social science and chaosSocial science and chaos”It is clear that the existence of chaos means that the capacity of mathematical formalisation breaks down in practice.”

”Attempts through the development of regression methods to establish social laws analogous to the laws of mechanics have all collapsed.”

D. Byrne, ”Complexity Theory and The Social Sciences”, 1998

The autonomy of The autonomy of social scientistsocial scientist

• Social scientist – detached observer or participant and utopian thought experimenter?

• Example from natural sciences (particle physics): active engagement into reality by experiment, like colliding particles (no other way for discovery), string theory – no observation, only theoretical calculations.

• Reciprocal impact – ideological implications within social sciences, scientific guidance for social reconstruction.