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Do ENSO modeling discrepancies affect the climate-carbon
feedback?
Ana Bastos
Célia M. Gouveia, Ricardo M. Trigo
Land-sink: present and future
Friedlingstein et al. 2014 J. Clim.
Land-sink: present and future
Cox et al. 2013 Nature
Land-sink and ENSO
NOAA
Impacts of DJF ENSO
Land-sink and ENSO
Bastos et al. 2013 JGR - Biogeosciences
Land CO2 uptake from CDIAC
Multiv. ENSO index
ENSO in CMIP5
Bellenger et al. 2014
ENSO in CMIP5
Bellenger et al. 2014
Pacific SST variability in ESMs
Nino 3.4 from ESMs
1) Variance explained 2) Amplitude 3) Frequency metric 4) Spatial configuration
ENSO e
Land CO2 uptake in ESMs
NBP e
Land-sink metric
Land CO2 uptake & ENSO
Land-sink metric vs ENSO metric
Land CO2 uptake & ENSO
SST variance explained by ENSO
Land CO2 uptake & ENSO
NBP variance and ENSO amplitude
Remarks
The discrepancies in the ENSO characteristics affect to some extent the representation of the global land CO2 sink; The models with bigger deviations from the reference land CO2 sink are the ones in which ENSO has a stronger contribution to SST variability in the Pacific… … and errors in the variability of the land-sink seem to be related to errors in the amplitude of modeled ENSO; Further research to investigate how the discrepancies in the ENSO signal affect convection and precipitation patterns in the tropical/sub-tropical regions within the ESMs.
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