Fixing Forecast Accuracy: Joint Webinar with Sales Management Association

Fixing Forecast Accuracy

The quest for the holy grail of sales confidence!

Tim BramanRevegy, Inc.VP of Corporate Strategy

Deal Outcomes – Forecasted Deals Only

CSO Insights, Inc. 2013 Sales Performance Survey

27.3% 26.1% 24.2%

All Companies Use CRM

What tool do you use for forecasting?

- SFA (Salesforce, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, etc.)- SFA plus Excel- SFA plus Forecasting Analytics tool- Excel only- Other

Today’s Agenda

The Smartest Guys in the Room

•Sirius Decision – Jim Ninivaggi•CSO Insights – Jim Dickie•Forrester – Scott Santucci•Aberdeen – Peter Ostrow

Context for Today’s Discussion

It Isn’t Easy…

Challenges with Forecast Accuracy

We don’t

really have

a process…

Our target market is

EVERYONE!

Tactical vs. Strategic SolutionBuyers

EngageLater

Big vs. Small

Prospect

What is your biggest problem with forecasting

- No common language/process- Sales Representative forecasting skill/knowledge

- Lack of insight to customer behavior- Lack of Management inspection/coaching- Don’t have appropriate tools- Other

What is “Good” Forecast Accuracy - Top 20%

90 Days 60 Days 30 Days Immediate

76%80%

Aberdeen Group : “Sales Forecasting Research Benchmark”

- On-time?- Amount ok?

Why care about Forecast Accuracy?

Quota AttainmentSales Cycle Reduction

17% 10%

Top 20%

3% 0% 6%

Middle 50%Bottom 30%Aberdeen Group : “Sales Forecasting Research Benchmark”

Forecast with Confidence – The Five Pillars

Forecast with Confidence – The 5 Pillars1. Ideal Customer/Qualify

Who is your ideal Customer?

Ideal Customer/Qualify

Case Study: GE Finance• 3X win rate increase• 10,000 New

Harvard Business Review, The New Science of Sales Force Productivity

Ideal Customer – Qualify the timing

Win Rate 17%

CSO Insights, 2013 Global Sales Performance Optimization Study

Forecast with Confidence – The Five Pillars2. Sales Process

Stage(SFA-%)

Identify(Lead – 0%)

Qualify(D – 25%)

Develop(C – 50%)

Proof(B – 75%)

Close(A – 90%)

Objective Is this a prospect? Is there an Opportunity? How do we help? Prove our Value Get Ink!

Critical Success Factors

• Validate customer’s current business challenges and key initiatives

• Understand customer’s landscape and our potential partners

• Determine key stakeholders, evaluation criteria and decision-making process

• Develop latent pain /use Challenge/provocation message

• Conduct initial executive meeting

• Confirm executive commitment and critical success factors

• Identify competitive landscape

• Determine potential solution fit

• Develop initial sales strategy with account team & management

• Conduct discovery workshop

• Develop our unique value propositions (UVP)

• Confirm solution fit with key stakeholders

• Create solution presentations and demonstrations

• Test / Refine the solution presentation with our Coach

• Present OUR solution to key decision makers

• Integrate implementation, training and support teams

• Provide references or conduct POC

• Submit value-centric proposal

• Confirm final decision process and timing

• Gain customer commitment and finalize legal agreements / timelines

• Obtain internal approvals

• Process Contract/Purchase Order

• Conduct transition meeting with Professional Services and support teams

Sales Process

Discovery QualificationSolution

Development Short List Selected

Qualified Opportunity

Signed Agreement

Solution Aligned with Customer Needs

Selected as one of FinalistsDemandGeneration

Sales Process

• BDR pre-qualifies from

marketing campaigns.• BDR and AE prioritize Top

Prospects• BDR sets up further

qualification and discovery calls.

• BDR and AE identify key stakeholders

• Contact prospects and customers to qualify budget process, time-frame, decision-makers and influencers, decision/ procurement process.

• Team gathers information to understand customer’s objectives.

• Further qualification of key decision-makers/ stakeholders, buying criteria and technical requirements.

• Professional Services engaged.

• AE works with team to develop the solution

• Create customer-centric demonstration

• Conduct demonstration/presentation

• Create proposal and customer

• Review proposal with key stakeholder

• Validate Short List• AE and team make final

proposal adjustments • Conduct necessary ‘Proof’

activities• Reconfirms customer’s

decision and procurement process.

• Negotiate Business Terms• Gain internal stakeholder

approvals (legal and finance)• Manage customer

procurement cycle• Identify potential risks• Obtain contract signature and

Purchase Order

• Territory Plan• Account Plan• Ideal Customer Profile• Marketing Campaigns

• Value Message • Qualification Checklist• Whiteboard• Call Plans

• Whiteboard• Overview Presentation• Win/Call Plans• Value Map• Joint Evaluation Plan

• Demo Scripts or Standard Presentation

• Opportunity Win Plan• Value/Relationship Map

• Proposal Templates • Joint Evaluation Plan• Opportunity Win Plan • Value Map• Statement of Work

• Contracts• Statement of Work• Implementation Plan

• Lead generated by BDR, AE and/or AM

• Or, Marketing scores the lead (0%)

• Opportunity identified

• Or evaluation is underway

• Project is funded

• Value Map Completed

• CSF’s confirmed with executive

• Demonstration/Presentation delivered

• Proposal reviewed with executives

• Notification of short list

• Proposal submitted

• Proof conducted

• Decision pending

• Verbal commit

• Contracting process identified

• Agreement on contract terms and conditions

Pipeline Upside Commit

Understand Requirements

0% 5% 20% 40% 75% 90%

Your Sales Process in SFA

So What’s the Problem…

Start with Sales Process

Qualify DiscoverDevelopSolution Propose Negotiate

Sales Stages

Add Best Practice Activities

Collaborate on the

Evaluation Steps!

Do we have

Access?

How will the Customer

Measure Value?

Which StakeholdersVote on the

Final Decision?

Collect the Reward!

Sales Stages

Sales Process Win Rate

No Process 38%Semi-Formal 46%

Formal 48%Dynamic 52%

Align with Buying Process

Awarenessof Issue Prioritize

ExplorePossibleSolutions

EvaluateVendors

SelectVendor

Negotiate

Buyer Stages

Sales Stages

Test Progress with Evidence

RFP/RFIIssued

Presentation/Demo Request

ShortListed

Legal ReviewPilot

Web/SocialActivity

Why implement process?

Aligns toCustomer Buy Cycle

Win Rate

Poor 43%

Average 47%

Excellent 60%

Forecast with Confidence – The Five Pillars3. Sales Tools

Build a Plan – Begin with the end in mind

ReceiveValueDeployDeliverSign

ContractVendor of

ChoiceFinalistsSelectedTODAY

DateWhyWho

KPIMetrics

Source of Urgency

ApprovalProcess

DecisionProcess

EvaluationProcess

Collaborate on the Plan

Activity Week of

Discovery Interviews – Prospect Technology Team 29-JulDiscovery interviews - Prospect Finance Team 5-AugSummarize findings and prospect agreement 12-Aug

Collaborate on Plan/Timing for Evaluation 19-AugCapture KPI/Metrics Current State 26-Aug

Develop Implementation Plan 2-SepAgree on preliminary success criteria 9-Sep

Submit contracts to legal 16-SepGain legal approval (Terms & Conditions) 23-Sep

Present proposal for approval 30-SepFinal negotiations 7-Oct

Contract Signed/Purchase Order Issued 14-OctImplementation Kick-Off 21-Oct

Go Live Date 15-JanMeasure Success 22-Jan

Build a Plan – Watch for Bear Traps

- Procurement- Board Approval- Security Reviews

Map the Decision Makers

✔ ✔

Value tools and Negotiation Plan

Reduce Sales

Expense 5%

Increase Sales

Volume 5%

DecreaseDiscount

Sales 100.0 100.0 105.0 105.0

Cost of Goods 60.0 60.0 63.0 60.0

Gross Profit 40.0 40.0 42.0 45.0

Fixed Costs 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0

General & Admin. 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

Sales Expenses 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.0

Profit Before Tax 10.0 10.3 12.0 15.0

Profit Increase 3.0% 20.0% 50.0%

Harvard Business School Publication #9-192-098 rev 7/9/92

Forecast with Confidence – The Five Pillars4. Coaching

What is coaching?

Manager: Frank, I’m concerned about your

forecast Frank : Just submitted the final proposal to XYZ, I’m confident it will close this month

What happens at the point of the Spear?

Poor Average Excellent0%

60%43% 47% 52%

Proactive Coaching

When to Coach

Right Deal?

Can we Win?

Will it Close on Time?

ll Trust but Verify

Priority #1

Monitor

Ignore

Prioritize your coaching

Deal Size

Forecast with Confidence – The Five Pillars5. Analytics/Metrics

Why analytics and metrics?

40%50%60%70%

44.30%51.80%54.80%

70.40%

No AnalyticsWith Analytics

What to measure

• Average Deal Size• Time to Win/Lose a deal• Qualification Score to Win/Loss• % of Outcome/Evidence to

Win/Loss• Velocity/Dropout between

Stages• Average Discount• Forecast Accuracy

New vs. ExistingDeal Size – Small vs. LargeCustomer Size – Small vs. Large

Average Sales Cycle – New vs. Existing Customer

CSO Insights, Inc. 2013 Sales Performance Survey

Sales Process Dynamics

OpportunitiesExiting Process

Leads In

60% 48% 22% 10%

covery

90Days

46Days

32Days

39DaysStage

Duration

Don’t get Siebel-ed

Deal Forecast Percent

Amount

Deal #1 75% $1,000,000

Deal #2 75% $1,000,000

Forecast Amount ???

Forecast Percent vs

Forecast Category

10% Omitted25% Pipeline50% Upside75% Commit90%

Which reps are following the sales process?

VP of Sales – WIIFM?

Trusted Forecast

All Others0.00%

10.00%

15.00%

Aberdeen Group – Sales Forecasting Benchmark Report

Average Revenue Growth Rates

• Understand your ideal customer and when they buy

• Create an evidence-based, buyer-aligned forecast

• Leverage tools to plan and win• Change Sales Managers from “flogger of the

forecast“ to “Sales Coach”• Leverage key metrics into forecast reporting

Forecast with Confidence!

Questions?

Tim BramanVP Corporate Strategytbraman@revegy.comRevegywww.revegy.com

Fixing Forecast Accuracy: Joint Webinar with Sales Management Association

Sales

Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling

Summer 2019 Forecast Accuracy Update › - › media › Files › Electricity › ... · Summer Forecast Accuracy Update to enable more timely understanding of the 2018 ESOO forecast

Forecast Accuracy and Model Choice

Does modeling a structural break improve forecast accuracy?

Systematically Improving Sales Forecast Accuracy

Forecast Accuracy and Model Choice Keith Ord Georgetown University

GDP Forecast Accuracy During Recessions

FORECAST ACCURACY REPORT 2015 · FORECAST ACCURACY REPORT 2015 FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT Published: ... actual economic and weather data has been used to calculate

FORECAST ACCURACY VS. FORECAST STABILITYFORECAST STABILITYcapabilities.itron.com/downloads/BrownBag_091812.pdf · FORECAST ACCURACY VS. FORECAST STABILITYFORECAST STABILITY ... of

Improving Forecast Accuracy

Increasing sales forecast accuracy with technique adoption in the forecasting …722754/FULLTEXT… · · 2014-06-09Increasing sales forecast accuracy with technique adoption

Forecast Pro Tailoring Your Forecasting Methods to Improve Accuracy

THE EFFECT OF ANALYST’S FORECAST ACCURACY ON …

Global and Regional Weather Forecast Accuracy Overview

Increasing sales forecast accuracy with technique adoption ...hj.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:722754/FULLTEXT01.pdf · Increasing sales forecast accuracy with technique adoption

3 Steps to Improve Sales Forecast Accuracy

Forecast Accuracy and Safety Stock Strategies

Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive … · Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and ... combining recursive and rolling forecasts, ... “rolling” to

Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian - RePub

SeDFAM: Semiconductor Demand Forecast Accuracy Modelmetin/Research/forecast_s.pdf · SeDFAM: Semiconductor Demand Forecast Accuracy Model Metin C˘akany ld r m School of Management