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Real estate market trends for the Greater Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market. See the latest real estate statistics and the performance of Prudential Georgia Realty.
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Greater
Metro Atlanta
Market
125,000 Homes Sold In 2006. 60,000 Homes Sold in 2010. 2013 Closings Down Due To Low Inventory And Higher Fallout Rates.
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Metro Atlanta Homes Sold
Listed Inventory June 2011 – June 2013
Residential Detached - Metro Atlanta
• Inventory Levels Down 19% from June 2012, 48.7% from June 2011
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6.2
4.9 5.0
4.34.0 4.1
3.8
4.4
3.9 4.0 3.9
4.64.2
3.5 3.4 3.3
3.8
7.4
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Jan
FebM
arA
prM
ayJu
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ugSep
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ovD
ecJa
nFeb
Mar
Apr
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Metro Atlanta – Months Of Supply
(Based Upon Closed Sales)
6 Months Is Considered A Normal Market
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25
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45
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-
$750K
$750K-$1
Mil
$1 mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (Based On Closed Sales)
It Is A Sellers Market Below $500K In Most Areas.
6 Months Supply Is Considered A Normal Market
Investors See The Opportunity To Buy Low, Lease & Sell High For Single Family Properties!
This Is Causing A Shortage Of Inventory Under $200,000.
Average Sales Price Up 38.5% In 2013
$184$201
$217$233
$241$255
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Metro Atlanta 2013 Average Sale Prices
Average Sales Price Increasing From Bottom Of 2011
$241$253
$261$268
$209
$189 $190$176 $183
$221
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Metro Atlanta Average Annual Sale Price Trend
Chart Shows Index Results January 2010 Through April 2013 (As Reported June 2013)
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110Jan
Mar
May
Ju
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Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
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ly
Sep
t
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Ju
ly
Sep
t
Nov
Jan
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Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta
Up 20.8% in Last 12 Months!
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1401995
1996
1997
1998
1999
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2001
2002
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta
• Peak was July 2007. Current Home Values Remain Below The
Normal Trend Line. But Prices Are Slowly Correcting!
-0.3 -0.3
2.41.8
2.11.8
-1.0
-6.2
2.6
1.72.0 2.1
-7
-6
-5
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-1
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S. GDP
Georgia GSP
Georgia Economy Outperforming
The National Economy In 2013 (Terry College of Business – University of Georgia)
• Georgia Lost 325,000 Jobs In The Great Recession.
• 2012 Restarted Positive Job Growth Trend!
-250,000
-50,000-25,000
68,400 63,30076,500
94,400
-300000
-250000
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
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100000
150000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
More Jobs In Georgia! (Data From Terry College of Business/ UGA& Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center)
Major Group Moves
And More Coming …
Rustbelt To Sunbelt
4,944,939
7,377,951
8,256,323
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ARC 20-Cty Population
Forecast Population Growth 20-County Forecast Area
Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close
To Their Children & Grandchildren.
Source :Census Bureau
Total Population
Rank of Share
Under 20 20-64 65+ 25-39 45-59
Dallas 6,144,489 3 9 25 1 24
Atlanta 5,271,550 5 6 27 2 19
Phoenix 4,179,427 4 24 15 3 26
Denver 2,466,591 11 5 24 4 12
Riverside 4,081,371 1 27 22 5 27
Houston 5,629,127 2 10 26 6 21
Portland 2,174,631 19 4 19 7 7
Seattle 3,309,347 22 1 20 8 3
Sacramento 2,091,120 12 13 14 9 20
Washington 5,306,125 14 3 23 10 11
Los Angeles 12,875,587 6 17 18 11 23
San Diego 2,974,859 8 14 16 12 25
San Francisco 4,203,898 26 2 10 13 4
Orlando 2,032,496 18 15 8 14 22
Minneapolis 3,208,212 10 7 21 15 6
Chicago 9,522,879 7 16 17 16 18
New York 18,815,988 21 12 6 17 15
Boston 4,482,857 23 8 9 18 10
Cincinnati 2,134,864 9 19 13 19 14
Baltimore 2,668,056 17 11 11 20 9
Detroit 4,467,592 13 18 12 21 5
Philadelphia 5,827,962 16 21 5 22 13
St. Louis 2,802,282 15 20 7 23 8
Miami 5,413,212 24 26 3 24 17
Tampa 2,723,949 25 25 1 25 16
Cleveland 2,096,471 20 23 4 26 2
Pittsburgh 2,355,712 27 22 2 27 1
Metro Atlanta Has The:
•#2 Population Age 25-39
•#5 Population Under 20
Atlanta is 56% Cheaper To Buy!
Metro Atlanta Is 56% Better To Buy Than Rent
• New Household Formation Dropped From 1.2 Mil (2006) To 400,000 (2008)
• Growing To 1.2 Million In 2013. Lots Of Pent-Up Demand.
• 4 Million Students Per Year Graduate From College For Next 10 Years!
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2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
U. S. Household Formation Trends Demand For 1st Time Buyers Will Be Strong!
Source: U.S. Census, JCHS Household Growth Projections, Goldman Sachs
Prices Improving and Mortgage Rates Rising. But Home Affordability Remains Historically Favorable.
207
187 187197 194
160 154146 141
116
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National Housing Affordability Index (Combination of home prices and mortgage rates)
Average Rates Around 8%
4.9 4.9
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Freddie Mac & Mortgage Bankers Association
30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast (June 2013)
2010 – 2014 Quarterly Averages
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Freddie Mac
MBA
Amount Of
Mortgage
3.5%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
5%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
8%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
$200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120
$300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360
$400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600
$500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480
$1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320
Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A
Significant Difference In Home Affordability
Metro Atlanta
New Homes
Charts Provided By SmartNumbers and ViaSearch
Metro Atlanta Closings
Blue – Resale Red – New Homes
New Homes Closings Up 55% From Last Year. Resale Units In 2012 At Levels Not
Seen Since 2006. But Almost 50% Of Resale Units From Investors Under $200k.
Buyer Types For New Homes
First Time Buyers And Baby Boomers Remain Most Active Segments.
We Are Looking To See The 1st & 2nd Move-Up Buyers Return.
New Home Permits
New Home Starts Growing Steadily!
Metro Atlanta Inventory (Black Arrow Is Population Trend)
Population Trends Growing Faster Than Inventory
Prudential
Georgia
Realty
Ranked #1 In Homes Sold – 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and YTD 2013
876
4540
719
5299
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PGR Market
June 2013 Closings Vs. June 2012 Closings
• PGR Closings Were Up 21.8% Compared To June 2012.
• The Market Was Down 14.3% Compared To June 2012.
• PGR Pendings Were Up 33.4% Compared To June 2012!
PGR
Outperforms
The Market
By 36.1%!
4161
25600
3711
26718
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PGR Market
YTD 2013 Closings Vs. YTD 2012 Closings
(Data As of June 2013)
PGR
Outperforms
The Market
By 16.3%!
• PGR Closings Were Up 12.1% Compared To YTD 2012.
• The Market Was Down 4.2% Compared To YTD 2012.
• PGR Pendings Were Up 25.3% Compared To YTD 2012!
Information Provided By Trendgraphix. PGR Numbers Internal.
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PGR HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH
YTD Transactions – June 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
6%
4.8% 4.5%
3.9% 3.6%
2.4%
1.6%
Information Provided By Trendgraphix.
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PGR HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH
YTD Listing Sales – June 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
Information Provided By Trendgraphix.
Buyer Sales Units – June 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
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PGR HNR KW-AP MB CB SS AFH
Information Provided By Trendgraphix. PGR Numbers Internal.
Current Listing Inventory – June 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
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PGR HNR KW-AP MB CB AFH SS
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