Southern Hemisphere Adaptation Collaboratory

Southern Hemisphere Adaptation CollaboratoryDr. Francisco J. Meza

Director Centro de Cambio Global UCMark Stafford Smith CSIRO

Patricia Pinho INPESantiago 13-14 de noviembre de 2013

A Collaboratory - background

1. Adaptation is highly context specific at multiple levels of governance– broad general approaches do not satisfy practitioners– need impacts from climate change scenarios in context of other

changes e.g. population trends, development, etc2. Adaptation options often highly local

– some opportunity to generalise within specific decision areas such as – some opportunity to generalise within specific decision areas such as the water domain or local government coastal infrastructure decisions

– practitioners need to learn across locations but be local3. Investors need to assess whether adaptation investments are

effective– But monitoring adaptation action is proving difficult.

• Many approaches – to delivering more local information, supporting local adaptation

planning processes and even action, and perhaps monitoring, but...

The level of use to ensure

“Social Foundation”

Raworth, 2012

Raworth, 2012

Maintain a safe and resilient

Planet “Environmental ceiling”)

IPCC 2007: 1.1-6.4°C? – probably not any more

IPCC (2007) Summary for Policy Makers (Fig.SPM.5)

2°C: 2065±10y??

Adaptation: Towards Sustainable

Agriculture

Howden et al. (2010).

Managing the risk from diverging possible futures

Recovery

Stabilisation

Runaway

1

2

3

4

5

6

Me

an

Glo

ba

l W

arm

ing

(°C

) Three scenarios for the future

Recovery

0

1

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

Me

an

Glo

ba

l W

arm

ing

(

MEP2030A1FI-GaRMEP2010 (Overshoot)

Incremental

adaptation

to changes

of reasonable

certainty possible

Adaptation must

increasingly manage

the risk of divergent

possible futures, and

need for transformation

Stafford Smith et al 2011, Phil.Trans.Roy.Soc. 369

Are we adapting?

• Growing literature on failure to act on adaptation» Tompkins et al. (2010). Observed adaptation to climate

change: UK... Global Environmental Change» Berrang-Ford et al. (2011). Are we adapting to climate

change? Global Environmental Change

– Actually lots happening locally, etc, but also big gaps» And most organisations are still, at best, planning but not » And most organisations are still, at best, planning but not

doing» When they are doing it is not necessarily (or often) badged as

adaptation» Measuring it is hard

• What is inhibiting decisions?– Move to a decision support/solutions-oriented framing

• Is the limitation information? Or social processes?» Values and institutions

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Adaptation science: three perspectives, all needed

Adaptation information and decision-makingEvaluation, adaptation

pathways, future scenarios,

risk management modes, etc

Adaptation

options and

technologiesCultivars, materials,

farming systems, urban

planning, etc

Adaptive

behaviours

and institutionsBehaviours, incentives,

barriers, adaptive capacity,

vulnerabilities, etc

Willows & Connell 2003 UKCIP

Problem or solution-centred??

IPCC

History and context

• IAV meeting in San Jose dos Campos, Brazil, Nov 2009: • Lahsen et al. (2010). Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2, 364-374.

» “Producing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation knowledge requires greater inclusion of MLIC researchers and a rethinking of the research structures, institutions and paradigms that have dominated global change research to date.”

• 1st Intl Adaptation Conference, Gold Coast, Australia 2010• Discussions in Chile Oct 2010, La Serena 2011• Discussions in Chile Oct 2010, La Serena 2011• 2nd Intl Adaptation Conference, Arizona, USA, 2011

� Diverse efforts globally - >300 products/processes reviewed– ...but limited convergence or sustainability– PROVIA

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2

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Adaptation timing and priorities

Today’s decisions

must account for how

long their effects will be felt

Stafford Smith et al, PhilTransRoySoc 2011 (after Jones & McInnes 2004)

A Collaboratory - 2Proposed purpose

– To provide a modular decision support portal for climate adaptation decision-making in the Southern Hemisphere, as a one stop shop for future scenarios, sectoral adaptation options, tools for adaptation planning and decision-making, and an insight into levels of adaptation activity.

– Who is it aimed at and why? adaptation decision-makers in government and society, to support adaptation readiness and track action

Proposed outputsa. a well-recognised web-based portal for adaptation which supplies a

consistent set of background information and tools for adaptation planning and decision-making, and provides a standardised framework to support country and sector specific information;

b. a two-way interactive capacity to absorb and make available credible information about adaptation options for different sectors and circumstances;

c. the ability to contribute to tracking levels of adaptation responses across the regions.

A Collaboratory - 3

Possible components/scopei. Well-targeted climate and wider social scenarios of the future, as well

as key locally-resolved national datasets and information on potential impacts drawn from various sources for each country

ii. Guides for use of scenarios that take account of behavioural aspects, help with choice of vulnerability methods, etc

iii. Suite of planning tools, such as adaptation planning processes, economic and other assessment methods, etceconomic and other assessment methods, etc

iv. Two-way interactive documentation of adaptation options for sectors regarded as key in each participating country, and decision types within each sector, with capacity for user entry/accreditation/testing

v. Process for identifying and documenting barriers to adaptation, for the information of other levels of governance, etc

vi. Mechanism for starting to track actual adaptation responses across key sectors

Southern Hemisphere commonalities: comparative advantages?

Proposed Themes (Initial Focus)

• 1. Infrastructure• 2. Food (Water) Security

AguaScapesInnovative Science and Influential Policy Dialogues for Water Security in the

Arid Americas

In keywords: global change research, policy

Project

AguaScapes

Case Studies in

AguaScapes

Case Study

Maipo & Elqui

Basin

In keywords: global change research, policy engagement with stakeholders, 5 participating countries

• Emphasis on water security• 5 “principal basins” and 5 “analogue basins”• Project runs until 2017

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AguaScapesResearch Approach

25/11/2013 19Francisco Meza

Thank you

Francisco Meza Francisco Meza Director - Center for Global Change

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chilefmeza@uc.cl