Simon Chelton

Submarines in the Asia-Pacific

Simon CheltonAssociate Fellow RUSI

Outline

• Maritime Asia-Pacific

• Submarines in East Asia

• Issues

Maritime Asia-Pacific

East Asia Trade Routes

Energy Trade Flows

Maritime Topography

Wider Region

Submarines in East Asia

Submarines in East Asia 2000

2000Country SSBN SSN SSK Totals

China 1 5 30 36India 0 0 4 4Australia 0 0 3 3Japan 0 0 18 18Taiwan 0 0 4 4N Korea 0 0 6 6S Korea 0 0 6 6Philipinnes 0 0 0 0Indonesia 0 0 0 0Vietnam 0 0 0 0Singapore 0 0 5 5Malaysia 0 0 4 4Thailand 0 0 0 0Total 1 5 80 86

Submarines in East Asia 2014

2014Country SSBN SSN SSK Totals

China 4 5 60 69India 0 1 16 17Australia 0 0 6 6Japan 0 0 18 18Taiwan 0 0 4 4N Korea 0 0 20 20S Korea 0 0 12 12Philipinnes 0 0 0 0Indonesia 0 0 2 2Vietnam 0 0 1 1Singapore 0 0 6 6Malaysia 0 0 6 6Thailand 0 0 0 0Total 4 6 151 161

Submarines in East Asia 2030

2030Country SSBN SSN SSK Totals

China 5 9 25 39India 5 6 7 18Australia 0 0 12 12Japan 0 0 20 20Taiwan 0 0 4 4N Korea 0 0 30 30S Korea 0 0 18 18Philipinnes 0 0 3 3Indonesia 0 0 3 3Vietnam 0 0 6 6Singapore 0 0 4 4Malaysia 0 0 6 6Thailand 0 0 3 3Total 10 15 141 166

Issues

• Proliferation• Availability and effectiveness• Operational deconfliction• Countermeasures

Proliferation• Increased numbers• Push for quality over quantity– Nuclear power– AIP

• Impact• Sources of supply

Availability and effectiveness

• High cost of ownership• Training and standards– Closer to aircraft than surface ships

• Maintenance and support infrastructure• Learning from other nations

Operational deconfliction

• Waterspace management• Coordination• Avoidance of collision

Countermeasures

• Reacting to increased submarine capability– Surveying capacity– ASW capability– Maritime Patrol Aircraft

Conclusions

• Rapid SM proliferation in East Asia– Response to general naval expansion and

territorial competition• New owners will need help to exploit SMs– Potential market for existing operating countries

• Dangers of congested operating areas• Likely to drive ASW capability within region

Questions?