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SESSION 1: PBL-Ton Manders land water energy nexus presentation - CIRCLE workshop oct. 2014
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Second ad-hoc technical workshop on CIRCLE, 2-3 October 2014, OECD, Paris
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Economic Impacts of the Land-Water-Energy Nexus
Exploring its feedbacks on the global economy
The land-water-energy nexus Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Content
• What is the nexus?
• Main bottlenecks
• Modelling framework
• Preliminary results
The nexus
Land-Water-Energy nexus
Strong linkages between land, water and energy
Competition for the same resources
Tension grow over time
An integrated analysis is needed
A desaggregated analysis is needed
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Main bottlenecks
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Table 1 Existing links in IMAGE and ENV-Linkages
linkage importance
Water for agriculture
Water for energy
Agriculture for energy
Agriculture for water
Energy for agriculure
Energy for water
Land for agriculture
Bottlenecks: water use
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Water stress matters
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Bottlenecks: bioenergy
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Bottleneck: land-use
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Bottlenecks: land-use
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Feedbacks between IMAGE and Env-Linkages
OECD-CIRCLE Workshop October 21 -22, 2013 | Ton Manders 11
ENV-Linkages
IMAGE
Land supply, yield (water supply) (health) (biodiversity)
Economy (agricultural demand) population
Nexus in modelling framework
NEXUS-links: IMAGE ENV-Linkages CIRCLE
Water for agriculture Yes No Yes
Land for agriculture Yes Yes Yes
Agriculture for water Yes No No
Energy for agriculture No Yes Yes
Agriculture for energy Yes Yes Yes
Water for energy No No No
Energy for water No No No
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Preliminary results: groundwater & irrigation Step 1:
– Baseline with plenty groundwater for irrigation
Step 2:
– Simulation without groundwater for irrigation.
– Agricultural production losses (IMAGE)
– “Shock” ENV-Linkages with production losses
– Economic impact of poduction losses (ENV-Linkages)
Step 3:
– Compare regional + sectoral production, trade, GDP, etc. between baseline and simulation variant-> cost of inaction!
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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IMAGE water & irrigation:
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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IMAGE water & irrigation:
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Lower irrigation yields Reallocation irrigated agriculture Increase area rainfed agriculture Lower overall yields Production losses to ENV-Linkages
World
Rice (yield)
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Rice yield: India Rice yield: Indonesia
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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Next: other simulations Bottlenecks regarding water availability:
– Water allocation variant
– Water efficiency techniques variant
Bottlenecks regarding land availability
– Land degradation variant
– Land supply variant
Other bottlenecks:
– Ozone variant
– Climate change variant
Thank you
fritz.hellman@pbl.nl
ton.manders@pbl.nl
www.pbl.nl
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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IMAGE
Energy supply/demand
Carbon cycle Crops Natural vegetation
Atmosphere Water cycle
Earth system
Impacts
Land use Emissions
Drivers
Agricultural demand/production
The land-water-energy nexus
Fritz Hellman, Tom Kram, Ton Manders
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