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Konstantin Simonov’s speech presentation at LNG Global Congress. London, UK, September, 27, 2011.
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National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Russian LNG: Geopolitical Focus
Konstantin SimonovKonstantin SimonovLondonLondon
2277thth of September of September20120111
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
SwingSwings of Es of Expectationxpectationss
•2002006-08: expectation of 6-08: expectation of increasing of prices and gas increasing of prices and gas deficit deficit
•2009-20102009-2010: expectation of cheap : expectation of cheap gas and gas and long-term long-term gas to gas gas to gas competition competition
•2011: 2011: carefulcareful return to old agenda return to old agenda
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Russia: Expectations Russia: Expectations of Consumers of Consumers
•2005-20082005-2008: level of production?: level of production?•2009-2010 – 2009-2010 – level of prices?level of prices?•2011 – 2011 – level of cheap gas level of cheap gas
productionproduction? ?
Quantity or PriceQuantity or Price? ?
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
CCase forase for Russia Russia
•Qatar Qatar moratoriummoratorium•Fukushima and the end of Fukushima and the end of
“nuclear renaissance” “nuclear renaissance” •““Arabian spring” Arabian spring” •Budget crises in EU and future Budget crises in EU and future
of renewablesof renewables
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CCase againstase against Russia Russia
•Shale gas Shale gas •Possibility of Possibility of second wave of second wave of
economic economic crisiscrisis•LNGLNG??
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Russian Attitude to LNGRussian Attitude to LNG
DDual relationual relation •OOn the n the one handone hand: new markets for : new markets for
Russian gas, Russian gas, additionaladditional flexibility of flexibility of supplysupply
•OOn the other handn the other hand: : competitorcompetitors, s, possible destruction of existing possible destruction of existing pricing system (long-term contracts) pricing system (long-term contracts)
Pipes for Europe, LNG for Asia and Pipes for Europe, LNG for Asia and Atlantic marketAtlantic market
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Russian Market Strategy Russian Market Strategy
Source: General Scheme for Gas Industry Source: General Scheme for Gas Industry Development to 2030Development to 2030
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Today’s CompetitorsToday’s Competitors
Main LNG Producers (2010, bcm)
75,75
31,36 30,5425,36 23,90 20,38 19,31
11,49 9,71 8,83 7,90 13,40
-10,0020,0030,0040,0050,0060,0070,0080,00
Source: Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2011
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Today’s Competitors Today’s Competitors
Source: Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2011
Production of LNG (2010, bcm)
100,5 96
58,5
2213,5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Middle East Asian Pacific Africa Latin America Russia
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Short-Term Forecast Short-Term Forecast
LNG Liquefaction Plants under Construction (Summer, 2011)
Country Plant Capacity
(bcm) Capacity (Mtpa)
Start Date
Skikda (rebuild) 6,1 4,5 2013
Algeria Gassi Touil 6,4 4,7 2013
Angola Angola 7,1 5,2 2012 Pluto 6,5 4,8 2011
Gorgon 20,4 15,0 2014 Gladstone LNG 10,6 7,8 2014
Queensland Curtis
11,6 8,5 2015 Australia
Prelude 4,8 3,6 2016 Indonesia Donggi Senoro 2,7 2,0 2014
Papua New Guinea
PNG LNG 9,0 6,6 2014
Source: IEA, NESF
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Forecast from Russia Forecast from Russia
Forecast for LNG Production in 2030 (Bcm)
245225
190
45
95
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Africa Asian Pacific Middle East Latin America Russia
Source: General Scheme for Gas Industry Development to Source: General Scheme for Gas Industry Development to 20302030
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Who is the Main Threat? Who is the Main Threat?
Source: Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2011,General Scheme for Gas Industry General Scheme for Gas Industry
Development to 2030Development to 2030
Forecast for LNG Production in 2030 (Bcm)
58,5
96 100,5
22 13,5
245225
190
45
95
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Africa Asian Pacific Middle East Latin America Russia
2010y
2030y
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
List of Compatitors List of Compatitors
• Iran – political Iran – political uncertaintyuncertainty•Nigeria - political iNigeria - political innstability stability •North of Africa – “Arabian spring”North of Africa – “Arabian spring”•Malaysia and Indonesia – problems Malaysia and Indonesia – problems
with reserves and increasing of with reserves and increasing of domestic consumption domestic consumption
•Norway – lack of proved reservesNorway – lack of proved reserves
•Main Russian problems era Qatar and Main Russian problems era Qatar and Australia Australia
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LNG Capacity and Import LNG Capacity and Import to Europe (bcm)to Europe (bcm)
Number of LNG
Terminals
Planned Capacity (2010)
Import in 2009
Import in 2010
Production in 2009 (Rated
capacity)
Europe 19 163 68,9 98,5 53 (74) Europe +Africa
Belgium 1 9 6,5 France 3 25,2 13,1
Italy 2 11,3 2,9 Spain 6 50 27
Greece 1 5 0,7 Portugal 1 5,2 2,8
U.K. 3 45,1 10,2 Turkey 2 12,2 5,7
North America 17 190 17,7 20 (19,6)
USA 10 153,8 12,8 12,2
South America 4 14,1 2 -
Middle East 1 7 0,9 68,5 (94,5)
Asia 39 415,7 153,4 178 95,2 (119) China 4 12,6 7,6 12,6 India 2 15,9 12,6 13
Japan 27 249,7 90,2 98 R. of Korea 4 104,3 34,3 43,6
Taiwan 2 34 11,8 11,6 ALL 80 790 242,9 298* 240 (320)
Source: LNG Report
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IIn search ofn search of Geopolitical Geopolitical CompromiseCompromise
•China for Australia, Japan for China for Australia, Japan for SakhalinSakhalin??
•Denial from nuclear energy in Denial from nuclear energy in Japan?Japan?
•What to do with Qatar?What to do with Qatar?
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Yamal vs AustraliaYamal vs Australia
Gorgon LNG Yamal LNG Capital
expenditure $38 billion $28 billion
Capacity 15 million tones 15-16 million
tones First
delivery 2014 2016
Peculiar obstacles
Carbon sequestration
Delivery of LNG through ice-
fields
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
RRestorationestoration of Russian Gas of Russian Gas ExportExport??
Source: GazpromSource: Gazprom
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Export PlansExport Plans
Source: Economic Development MinistrySource: Economic Development Ministry
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Export PlansExport Plans
Source: Economic Development MinistrySource: Economic Development Ministry
National Energy Security FundNational Energy Security Fund
Thank you! Thank you!
www.energystate.ruwww.energystate.ru
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