From Warsaw to Paris: Expectations for a new international agreement on climate change

International climate policy From Warsaw to Paris

Ecofys webinar

Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

30/01/2014

International climate policy

30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 2

The EU has saved the climate negotiations…

… but not yet the climate.

We need an emergency plan!

Included in low ambition pledgeIncluded only in high ambition pledgeAdditional to pledges

2° C range

2010 2015 2020

Ambitious end of national reduction

proposals 50 GtCO2e

Confirmed national reduction

proposals 55 GtCO2e

Business as usual56 GtCO2e

Photo: Leila Mead/IISD

Timeline of the UN climate negotiations

1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto

Protocol

2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol

Objective: “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Principle: “The Parties should protect the climate system on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.”

Protocol

> Emission reduction targets for developed countries (in aggregate 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012)

> Flexibility in reaching targets International emission trading / joint

implementation Clean Development Mechanism (offset projects)

Protocol

First Kyoto Protocol

Then treaty with all

countries

No Kyoto Protocol

First a treaty with all

countries

Protocol

2007 Bali Action Plan

Copenhagen

2011 Cancun Agreements

2012 Durban platform

2015 New agreement

Kyoto Protocol track

UNFCCC track

Durban Platform > Copenhagen Accord agreed – falling short of expectations

> But All countries agreed that global temperature increase

should be limited to 2°C

All major emitters proposed emission reduction targets for 2020

Protocol

Copenhagen

2015 New agreement

UNFCCC track

Durban Platform

First Kyoto Protocol

Then treaty with all

countries

No Kyoto Protocol

First a treaty with all

countries

Ok, Kyoto

Protocol only for

the EU, but only

with a date for a

treaty with all

countries

Protocol

Copenhagen

2015 New agreement

UNFCCC track

Durban Platform

Photo: Flickr/UNFCCC

Climate negotiations over time

Emission reductions

> Agreement of limit global temperature increase to 2°C

> Emission reduction proposals for all major countries for 2020

> Kyoto Protocol with moderate targets until 2020 and limited participation

Financing

> From 10 billion US$ (2010/11/12) to 100 billion US$ per year (2020)

> Green Climate Fund as new financing channel

> New forms of cooperation, e.g. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), forestry (REDD+)

Reporting

> Biennial reporting of emissions and policies

30/01/2014 9

What could be in a 2015 agreement?

> Global goal, e.g. “phase out of global

greenhouse gas emissions by 2050”

> National emissions reduction commitments

> Commitments on financial contributions

> Measures and goals for adaptation

A possible proposal: Haites et al. 2013 http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Idees-pour-le-

debat/WP1613_EH%20FY%20NH_legal%20agreement%202015.pdf

Proposal:

Commitment and

equity principle

Technical review

and questions

Final 2020-23 Commitment

More ambitious 2024-27

commitment

Sufficient?

YesYes

30/01/2014 10

The emissions gap

www.climateactiontracker.org

> 20% below 1990 in 2020

> 30% below 1990 if there is a global ambitious agreement

> 17% below 2005

> Possible if new climate plan is really implemented

> Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non-fossil fuels of 15% by 2020, forest cover

> Policies: top 10 000 company programme, support for renewables, low carbon zones, emission trading systems, efficiency standards for cars and trucks, regional ban of new coal fired power plants, …

National climate policy

Countries

responsible for 67%

of global emissions

have national

climate legislation or

strategy

Source:

Dubash et al. 2013

http://dx.doi.org/10.1

080/14693062.2013.

845409

Climate Action Tracker

Simple view Complex view

UNFCCC

climate treaty

National government

action

Source: Draft of IPCC Fifth

Assessment Report

Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global

action on climate change

Included in low ambition pledgeIncluded only in high ambition pledgeAdditional to pledges

2° C range

2010 2015 2020

Ambitious end of national reduction

proposals 50 GtCO2e

Confirmed national reduction

proposals 55 GtCO2e

Business as usual56 GtCO2e

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html

Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global

action on climate change

Top-1000 companies emission reduction

Supply chain emission reductions

Green financial institutions

Voluntary offset companies

Companies’ emissions

Voluntary offsets consumers

Major cities initiative

Sub-national governments

Other actors

Buildings heating and cooling

Ban of incandescent lamps

Electric appliances

Cars and trucks emission reductions

Energy efficiency

Intl. aviation and maritime transport

Fluorinated gases initiative

Reduce deforestation

Agriculture

Special sectors

Methane and other air pollutants

Efficient cook stoves

Methane and other air pollutants

Boost solar photovoltaic energy

Boost wind energy

Access energy through low emission options

Energy supply

Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html

Cooperative initiatives

> Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It is

already covered by a substantial number of initiatives. Focus and coherency

is needed.

> Fossil-fuel subsidy reform with varying estimates of the reduction

potential: 0.4–2 GtCO2e by 2020. The number of initiatives and clear

commitments in this area is limited.

> Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants as a mix of several

sources. Reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production has

received particular attention in the literature. This area is covered by several

specific initiatives and one that is overarching.

> Renewable energy with particularly large potential: 1–3 GtCO2e by 2020.

Several initiatives have been started in this area. Focus and coherency is

needed.

Quelle: UNEP emissions gap report

http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/

Thank you for your attention!

Ecofys Germany GmbH

Dr. Niklas Höhne

Am Wassermann 36

50829 Cologne

Germany

T: +49 (0)221 27070-101

E: n.hoehne@ecofys.com

I: www.ecofys.com

Stabilization of the climate

Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

Historical emissions

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

7 Annex I

ns in T

N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

7 Non-Annex I

ns in T

N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2

Future emissions

The challenges of 2°C with current pledges

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Historical emissions

1996 - EU agrees on 2°C limit, which meant - Ambitious but realistic reduction rates

- Delayed participation of developing countries possible - Choice of technology possible

- Opportunities for innovation and energy security

2012 - Today: 2°C limit means - Last chance, action before 2020 necessary

- Instantaneous change by all actors - Opportunities for innovation and energy security

- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary

Future emissions

given pledges

2020 – planned entry into force of new climate agreement: 2°C limit means

- High probability that 2°C limit is missed - Instantaneous change by all actors

- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary - All technologies necessary

- Shutdown of equipment before its end of life

Decisions in Warsaw on the timing of commitments

Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 30/01/2014 26

> “… initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions… and to communicate them well in advance of [COP21 (2015)] (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)”

> “identify, by [COP20 (2014)] the information that Parties will provide when putting forward their contributions”

Decision in Warsaw on pre-2020 ambition

> “Intensifying, as from 2014, the technical examination of opportunities for

actions with high mitigation potential, … with a view to promoting voluntary

cooperation …

> … sharing … of experiences and best practices of cities and subnational

authorities…”

Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 30/01/2014 27

Possible processes to determine commitments

Equity Reference

Framework (optional)

Proposals

Negotiations

Review

of aggregated

proposals

Individual review

Fixing in agreement

Ratchet up (optional)

Sufficient?

Yes No

Agreed?

30/01/2014 28

From Warsaw to Paris: Expectations for a new international agreement on climate change

News & Politics

URSUS MECHANICAL WORKS NEAR WARSAW...ursus mechanical works near warsaw subject: ursus mechanical works near warsaw keywords

Ludwik Sobolewski, Warsaw Stock Exchange @ TMT.Ventures'09 Warsaw

From Warsaw to Paris – Negotiating Global Climate Change · From Warsaw to Paris – Negotiating Global Climate Change Expert Talk at the Cairo House Dr. Camilla Bausch. ... Future

WARSAW SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS PRESS WARSAW ... - adamambroziak.eu

BRIEFING & ROUNDTABLE FRAMEWORK OF INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION Marie Stoyanov, YIAG Co-chair – Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP, Paris Warsaw, Poland –

Location Vicinity to Moscow Transit location between Moscow and European capitals on the highway “Moscow-Minsk-Warsaw- Paris” The Region borders on the

NEW PARIS ELEMENTARY - fairfield.k12.in.us PARIS ELEMENTARY Plan for... · NEW PARIS ELEMENTARY ... Opportunities and expectations for teachers to be included in the decision

CURRICULUM VITAE · Center for Latin American Studies (CESLA), Warsaw University, Warsaw, Poland M.S., Geography (June 1994) Warsaw University, Warsaw, Poland PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

Stimulate Unique Design - Sud Architectes · Ukraine Main & regionals Headquarters Lyon, Paris, Warsaw, Beirut, Shanghai, Hong Kong ... potential to increase productivity and job

The Real Value of the Paris Agreement€¦ · From legally binding targets to INDCs (Warsaw – COP19) and finally NDCs (Paris – COP21) INDCs put us on track for a world that is

Social medicine in Europe and Sweden -- an historical ... · PDF file1848 • Worldwide cholera epidemic • Uprisings in Berlin, Paris, Vienna, Palermo, Milan, Naples, Rome, Warsaw,

Warsaw ghetto

CEMS Club Warsaw Elections 2013 Warsaw, 21st of February 2013

Industrial Electronic Institute in Warsaw Welding Department Warsaw University of Technology Institute of Ecological Electric Thermal Engineering Warsaw

The future is here today – how the changing expectations ... · changing expectations are affecting banking? Warsaw, December 2015. What is Digital Disruption? New Technology

Warsaw Ghetto

Austria - Infomercatiesteri.it · Berlin Warsaw Vienna Ljubljana Rome Paris Oslo Stockholm Ankara Kiev Kishinev Riga Moscow Prague Sofia London ... Biotech is booming. 288 companies

Berlin london Madrid Paris Turin warsaw Bachelor …Madrid Paris Turin warsaw Bachelor in Management (BSc) DESIGNING tomorrow table of contents ESCP Europe Quick Facts 4 6 Urban Campuses

International Climate Policy – From Warsaw to Paris

Contact: mail@jeromeleuba.com Subsitut, Berlin / Recyclart, Bruxelles / 8 St-Bon, Paris / Rotor, Graz / Profile Fondation, Warsaw / Casal Solleric, Palma Majorque. battlefield #50