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Adrian Kemp, Director, NERA Economic Consulting delivered this presentation at the 8th Annual WA Power & Gas Conference 2014. The conference represents a timely meeting for the industry to hear about the current changes affecting the WA energy and electricity market. For more information, visit http://www.informa.com.au/wapowerconf14
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WA Electricity Market Trends
Implications for Market and Regulatory Reform
Perth
12 March 2014
Adrian Kemp
Director
1
Electricity costs in WA have
increased significantly
2
Similar electricity cost increases
have occurred in other states
New South Wales
South Australia
3
Forecasting demand in the SWIS
has been challenging
MW Maximum Demand – 50% POE
4
Total consumption has increased
in the SWIS
MWh
5
The rapid growth in Solar PV is
unprecedented
6
The way we generate and
consume electricity is changing
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
NEM commenced
operation
Today
Air-con
1.8 million
households
Air-con
5.4 million
households
PV
2.8 GW
PV
0.1 GW
? ? ?
7
Demand is also difficult to
forecast in the NEM
MW
Maximum Demand NSW – 50% POE
8
SWIS demand by month
9
NEM demand by month
10
Reserve capacity requirement
has outpaced actual demand
MW
WA Reserve Capacity Requirement
11
Capacity and maximum demand has
become disconnected - New South Wales
12
Capacity and maximum demand has
become disconnected – South Australia
13
Thermal generators are exiting and wind
farms are entering
14
Capacity has entered to meet the
reserve capacity requirement
MW
15
Different wholesale price
outcomes in WA and SA
Western Australia
South Australia
16
PVs can change the load profile –
South Australia 2010
41 MW
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
MW
2010
17
PVs can change the load profile –
South Australia 2010 to 2011
41 MW
172 MW
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
MW
2010 2011
18
PVs can change the load profile –
South Australia 2010 to 2012
41 MW
172 MW
319 MW
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
MW
2010 2011 2012
19
PVs can change the load profile –
South Australia 2010 to 2013
41 MW
172 MW
319 MW
435 MW
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
MW
2010 2011 2012 2013
Contact Us
© Copyright 2013
NERA Australia Pty Ltd
All rights reserved.
Adrian Kemp
Director NERA—Sydney 0406 753 352 adrian.kemp@nera.com
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