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This presentation discusses the use of agent-based modeling and its proven advantages to media planners, including the abilities to create effective media plans based on consumer differences, accurately attribute results to media tactics, quantify long-term effects, and forecast sales and ROI results.
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© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
Learn How a New Kind of Marke1ng Mix Modeling is Be7er for Media Planning
Mark Ba7aglia, CEO, ThinkVine
WHAT IS Agent-based Modeling?
A proven way of combining data, business rules and analyEcs to
re-‐create, gain insight into, and predict complex phenomena by simulaEng
the behavior and interacEons of “agents.”
© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
IN MARKETING MIX…
• The “complex phenomena” is how consumers respond to marketing, including buying (or not buying) products
• Each “agent” represents a person or a household
© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
ABM has two advantages over regression-based approaches:
• Population heterogeneity: takes into account how people are different
• Change over time: includes how people change over time including their price sensitivity, awareness, etc.
© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
Each company’s agent-based model is different
• Each uses different data, includes different markeEng science, does different calculaEons, etc.
• The differences ma7er both in terms of the results you get and how easy it is to get them
For the rest of this deck, we’ll look at the advantages of ThinkVine’s agent-based solution for media planners
© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 6
MORE ACTIONABLE Consumer-‐focused
More granular informa1on
MORE ACCURATE Includes all marke1ng Forecasts within 1-‐2%
MORE AGILE Any marketer any1me Collabora1ve workflow
ThinkVine’s ABM: Key Concepts
By applying ThinkVine’s agent-based modeling, brands have seen a 28% average increase in marketing-driven sales.
— Study of ThinkVine customers, 2013
© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
“A Week in the Life of an Agent”: Media Consump1on
7
HH with girl aged 6-‐10 Urban area Affluent
Frequent Buyer Buys on price
”Sophia” (an “agent”)
Time
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“A Week in the Life of an Agent”: Purchasing Behavior
8
Reached by Marke1ng based on, markeEng plan, reach, Eming and targeEng
62%
Experiences a Need based on seasonality
and purchase frequency
62%
Chooses Channel based on channel
preferences
62%
Sees Promo1ons & Prices based on % ACV of promoEon and relaEve
prices
86%
Makes
Purchase probability-‐based choice of a brand
or its compeEEon
✔
Star1ng Purchase Probability based on preference and effects of prior media
39% Probability of Purchase of a Brand
”Sophia” (an “agent”)
Time
© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.
Understand what budget you need and how to use it to meet sales goals and achieve other objecEves, such as leads, new customers, and lifeEme value.
Achieve your objectives
Understand the cumulative effect of all media
on consumer purchasing behavior
-‐ A7ribuEon of sales volume across all on-‐line and off-‐line media (pricing, distribuEon, etc). -‐ Short-‐term, long-‐term, marginal and normalized ROI by media type.
Quantify what works & what doesn’t
Establish the relative value of both media types and campaigns
Identify the media mix that will drive the best results overall and for each consumer group
Take factors like seasonal cost of media,
cross-media reach and frequency into account
Easily get the information you need Drill down to understand results along key dimensions
including consumer groups and timing
Accurately forecast how sales will change when media plans change
Forecast the lift of new tactics
and from moving from pilot to scale
Gain a data-driven understanding of media saturation by consumer group
Determine how long it takes to recover if you “save” by “going dark”
Do your best work with software
that supports agile planning
And there’s more…
• Quantify the “halo effect” of media across product lines
• Understand how competitive campaigns affect preference for your brand
• Incorporate the persuasiveness of creative into forecasts
See a 2 minute video overview at www.thinkvine.com
or call +1 (513) 842-‐5900
Get better results from your marketing mix.
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