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kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE
Photo: Kjaer Global Paris
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
THE EVOLUTION OF LUXURY REPORT
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
LUXURY TIMELINE
2025+ I The Evolution of Luxury I © Kjaer Global | 98
LUXURY TIMELINE
Romans
Luxury valued but criticized ‘habros’ and ‘poluteles’
Spartans: anti-luxury
Colonialism
Romantic Movement
New Deal
Luxury: The disruptive power of desire
First Luxury Law:To limit excessiveshows of wealth
Cena Trimalchionis(Satyricon) by
Petronius
1705 Mandeville’s Fable of the Bees:Scandalizes with discussions of
luxury vs thrift
The Kings of Macedon:Art and luxury as symbols
of wealth and power
Luxury goods trade used to gain national economic advantage
1851 Great Exhibition, London: showcase for manufactured products
Venice and Genoa:Prime sites for trade in luxury
Dutch Golden Age: Sociableand inclusive urban luxury
Spread of Christianity
Catholicism: the 7 Deadly Sins
Luxury has negativeconnotations: Gluttony,
sexuality and sin
U.S.: The rise of Luxury and extravagance
• Closed• Inherited status• Class-based• Showing• Validating people
2nd IndustrialRevolution
1929 Stock Market Crash
1st IndustrialRevolution
1899 Thorstein Veblen’sTheory of the Leisure Class
Nouveau Riche
Le Corbusier’s Modern Functionalist architecture celebrates ‘urban speed’
Greeks
Scott Fitzgerald’s 1925 The Great Gatsby: exploration of decadence,
social upheaval and the hollowness of The American Dream
Classic Era--------1500------1700-----1800----1900s----1920s----1930s----1940s------1950s-----1960s----1970s-----1980s----1990s----2000----2010-----2020----2030+
Mechanization - Industrial Cities
Mass production - Industrial Regions
Conspicuous Consumption
4th IndustrialRevolution
The middleclasses grow but ‘old
money’ still rules
Mass Consumption
Keeping up withthe Joneses Hyper Luxury
Cult of the Individual
3rd IndustrialRevolution
Masculine values: power, dominance & risk
• Luxury must have value• Consumer centric• Experiences not ownership• Validated by peers
Emerging economies and new global power structures
Wall St. excess under fire: Tom Wolfe’s Bonfire of the Vanities
Higher social mobility
Rise of ‘New Money’
Evidence clearly points to human impact on climate
New Luxury
Internet Activism / Social Media
2014 Naomi Klein: This Changes Everything
2009 John Naish: Enough: Breaking Free from the World of Excess
2014 Jeremy Rifkin: The end of Capitalism
Soft Power + Humanism
The Internet of ‘Everything’
Feminine values: harmony, dialogue, relationships
and respect
Ayn Rand: laissez-faire capitalism and objectivism
Mass luxury
Automation: globalized industries
Robotics / AI:flexible networks
1972 Bhutan’s Gross National
Happiness GNH
The 0.1 % = rise of UHNW(Ultra High Net Worth)
Transparency
2013 Thomas Piketty: Capital in the
Twenty-First Century
Neo Liberalism
Behavioral Economics
Polarized wealth
Bourdieu’s 1978 Distinction argues taste expresses economic and social standing
The Internet
Emergence of ecology and environment movements
2013 Skidelsky: How Much is Enough?: Money and the Good Life
Post Luxury
Sustainability and innovation underpin luxury: craft rebirth,
human valuesand experiences
Happinomics Enoughism
1974 The Easterlin Paradox: More money ≠ more happiness
Old Luxury Modern Luxury
2011 Harvard: Altruism and sustainable behavior = Happiness
The rebuilding of Europe
Luxury is used to reinforce social and class distimction
The rise of Japan
Globalfinancial crisis
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
Photo:: Kjaer Global
kjær GLOBAL
NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY
Family Holiday in Norway - Photo: Harald Brekke
San Francisco Museum of Modern Art - Rendering: Snøhetta
New affluent millennials seek an intelligent balance between fast and slow paces of life
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
kjær GLOBAL
Photo: Kjaer Global
Photo: Kjaer Global
MEANINGFUL EXPERIENCES
New luxury customers are not looking for more; instead, they want authentic and meaningful ‘deep’ experiences
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
RIGHT • Intuition • Vision • Possibilist
LEFT • Facts • Logic • Pragmatist
Whole Brain Thinking – Kjaer Global © 2013
1.SCIENTIFIC (Profit)
2.SOCIAL (People)
3.EMOTIONAL (Planet)
4.SPIRITUAL (Purpose)
MULTIDIMENSIONAL THINKING
2.SOCIAL
3.EMOTIONAL
4.SPIRITUAL
1.SCIENTIFIC
The 21th century requires a much wider definition of success – hence, I propose a 4P outlook
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
4. SPIRITU
AL
3. EMO
TION
AL
2. SOC
IAL
1. SCIEN
TIFIC
Foodie Culture Health = Wealth Good Cause
Work/LifeBalance
BrandEngagement
Glocalisation PublicPolicies
Green Growth
ClimateChange
Hyper Urbanisation
CulturalConsumption
InclusiveDesign
TheReal Thing
IntelligentReduction
Smart Living
RisingEconomies
Happiness HuntingThe Good LifeMindfulness
SocialCapital
QUALITY OF LIFE
No AgeSociety
Free-RangeParents
RedefinedFamilies
Digital Natives
Female Factor
Global Citizens
Active Leisure
Education 4.0
CleanTech
CloudIntelligence
The Global Brain
DialogueDriven
The Big Society
ThinkingCities
BioRevolution
Creative Class
BetapreneurshipCollaborativeCommunities
InnovationHubs
HealthChallenges
CrowdedPlanet
Bio Diversity
Turbulent Markets
Considered Consumption
ResourceShortage
One PlanetLiving
Radical Openness
Purpose DrivenLeadership
Soft Power
Lifelong Learning
AuthenticStorytelling
UNIVERSAL AWARENESS
WELLBEING LIFESTYLE CHOICES & CONSUMPTION A BETTER WORLD
ORGANISATIONS
ENVIRONMENTPOLITICS & LEGISLATIONSECONOMICS TECHNOLOGY
COMMUNICATION SOCIAL STRUCTURES
NewModels
Enoughism
TREND ATLAS 2030+UNIVERSAL VALUES
CARING ORGANISATIONS
MEANINGFUL EXPERIENCES
POLITICS & LEGISLATION ENVIRONMENT
A BETTER WORLD
QUALITY OF LIFE
TECHNOLOGY ECONOMIC DRIVERS
PATCHWORK SOCIETY COMMUNICATION
POSITIVE WELLBEING
TREND ATLAS 2025+
2.SOCIAL
3.EMOTIONAL
4.SPIRITUAL
1.SCIENTIFIC
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
2.SOCIAL
3.EMOTIONAL
4.SPIRITUAL
1.SCIENTIFIC
* REAL-TIME INNOVATION * ACCESS EVERYWHERE * HUMAN INTERFACE * CURATOR’S STAGE * ONE PLANET LIVING * NEW CONNOISSEURSHIP * FEMALE FACTOR * THE GOOD LIFE
TREND COMPASS 2025+
2025+ I The Evolution of Luxury I © Kjaer Global | 1110
Planet Oriented
Purpose Driven
Perform
ance
Foc
used
People Centric
ONE PLANET LIVING
NEW CONNOISSEURSHIP FEMALE FACTOR
THE GOOD LIFE REAL-TIME
INNOVA
TION
ACCESS EVERYWHERE
HUMAN INTERFACE
CURATO
R’S STAGE
TREND COMPASS
INTRO
Hyper Personal
Nordic Cool
Immersive Experiences
Imperfect Perfect
(Well)being 4.0
Conviviality
Textured Luxury
Mindful Living
Deep
Sto
ryte
lling
Glo
caliz
atio
n
Betterness
Co-
Infl u
ence
Ultra
Per
form
ance
Intelligent Reduction
Integrated Lifestyles Creative CapitalRATIONAL EMOTIONAL
ME
WE
TOMORROW’SLUXURY DRIVERS
NAVIGATING THE TRENDS“Luxury inhabits the realm of leadership and quality. Increasingly, luxury brands will be expected to expand their role as influencers of commercial behavior.”
To establish commonalities across regions we need to step back and look at luxury in the context of bigger shifts in society, as this enables us to extract the defining traits in a new luxury landscape. Global key society trends influencing consumption created the guidelines for our Trend Compass; these are essential building blocks that inform how all sectors – including premium – deliver to a new and diverse generation of consumers.
CONNECTED AND RESPONSIBLEResearch indicates that a new breed of affluent customers have highly individual ideas about what defines a premium object or experience, and require new key touch-points across sectors. Traditional definitions across all regions associated luxury with excess, something outside the realm of fundamental need, but this ‘lovely but inessential’ marker looks increasingly dated. Informed by today’s conscious consumption patterns, luxury is being influenced by everything from new technology and citizen-inspired collaboration to sustainability and nature rediscovery. Chief Sustainability Officer at Kering Group Marie-Claire Daveu believes the future is being directed by millennial mindsets: “The millennials are the most environmentally conscious generation to ever grace our planet. They are not only our future consumers but also our future talent and future leaders. In fact, 83% of millennials believe that businesses must take responsibility for their environmental impact.”
A NEW VALUE IN TIMEIn our expert interviews the notion of time as luxury stood out, with consensus on managing fast and slow paces of life to attain balanced and authentic wellbeing. Luxury will be about intelligent time, where real-time action / reaction, and personalized products and services will be the norm, with meaningful experiences also delivered to match people’s need for time out.
LUXURY MUST LEAD, NOT FOLLOWAccording to the MBI (Meaningful Brand Index) only 1 in 5 brands are perceived to make a meaningful difference to people’s lives; this tells us new luxury must lead, not follow, by defining new standards. Luxury brands must engage in corporate soul searching, asking themselves profound questions about their purpose, such as: why they exist and why anyone should invest in their brand. In this context, we asked: “could new luxury be the Nordic way?”. The Scandinavians are leaders in sustainability, with a democratic design philosophy combining skilled craft with ‘less is more’ and ‘built to last’ principles. Certainly, Nordic design adheres to the new integral synergy revealed by our research between luxury, refined aesthetics and maker responsibility.
RETHINKING LUXURYOur desktop research and interviews highlighted issues that premium brands will have to address to stay relevant and successful in an ever more complex experience economy. These are mapped and organized in the Trend Compass, and further explained in the trends section. So let this compass be a pilot for navigating the future, and use it to guide you through the changing landscape of luxury. COP21 will soon take place in the mecca of luxury: Paris. It might be a golden opportunity for rethinking luxury to ensure its relevance and authenticity to tomorrow’s mindful and affluent consumers.
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
kjær GLOBAL
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
kjær GLOBAL
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
WHO ARE TOMORROW’S LUXURY CONSUMERS? kjær GLOBAL
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 2025+ I The Evolution of Luxury I © Kjaer Global | 4948
Emotional
4.IDEALISTIC PIONEERS- Principled- Seeking Balance- Self Development- Experiential
3.ADVENTURE HUNTERS- Open & Sharing- Sensorial & Tactile- Experimental- Responsible
THE GOOD LIFEBetterness + Mindful Living
NEW CONNOISSEURSHIPImperfect Perfect + Nordic Cool
ONE PLANET LIVINGGlocalization + Deep Storytelling
FEMALE FACTOR(Well)being 4.0 + Intelligent Reduction
PERSONASP
hoto: © K
jaer Global 2015
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015
2.NEW SOCIALITES- Cultural Curiosity- Expressive- High Touch- Personal Curation
Rational
1.PROGRESSIVE OPTIMIZERS- First Movers- Aspirational- Dedicated & Driven- Forward Looking
ACCESS EVERYWHEREHyper Personal + Immersive Experiences
PERSONA OVERVIEW
REAL-TIME INNOVATIONCo-Influence + Ultra Performance
HUMAN INTERFACEIntegrated Lifestyles + Creative Capital
CURATOR’S STAGEConviviality + Textured Luxury
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015P
hoto: © K
jaer Global 2015
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015
PERSONA MAP
Rational Emotional
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 2025+ I The Evolution of Luxury I © Kjaer Global | 5150
1.PROGRESSIVE OPTIMIZERS
PROFILE
Progressive Optimizers see innovation as the route to
excellence. Found in all age groups – but especially
among affluent Millennials – they set the trends that trickle down through the luxury market to the wider
economy. These high achievers thrive in fast-paced
environments and demand the best of themselves
and their chosen brands.
QUANTIFIED SELF
Progressive Optimizers have bought into the idea
of a quantified self, knowing that data will help them achieve ultra performance in everything from work and
health to travel and entertainment. They understand
their own worth, and happily ‘trade’ data in return for
hyper personalization, co-influence and transparent benefits, but data privacy is key to them.
AUTOMATION VS CONTROL
Aware of the paradox of smart technology, Progressive
Optimizers love the fact they can outsource tedious
tasks, automate other chores and have real-time
personalized experiences. The balancing act is in
control – they need to feel that automation does not
rob them of their autonomy or replace all ‘human
touch’ interactions.
OPPORTUNITIES
Hugely influential and tech savvy, they want special treatment and access to innovative prototypes. Their
influence is profound, as one of our experts advises: “Focus on creating enhanced relationships with these customers to become socially valuable …inviting
higher levels of participation and access to the brand”.
Special treatment and assess to innovative prototypes
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015 – Shanghai
BEHAVIOR
- First Movers
- Aspirational
- Dedicated & Driven
- Forward Looking
REAL-TIME INNOVATIONCo-Influence + Ultra Performance
ACCESS EVERYWHEREHyper Personal + Immersive Experiences
PROGRESSIVE OPTIMIZERS
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015 – Shanghai
“Millennial consumers,
currently aged 18-34,
will become the largest
generational segment in the
luxury market between 2018
and 2020.” Kjaer Global expert interview 2015REGIONAL INFLUENCE
Global, skewed Asia, EU, Scandinavia, North
America, LTA and Middle East
PROGRESSIVE OPTIMISERS
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 2025+ I The Evolution of Luxury I © Kjaer Global | 5756
Highbrow to counter culture, and everything in between
NEW SOCIALITES
2.NEW SOCIALITESPROFILEFor New Socialites, family comes first and status is living well and expressing themselves. Self-made rather than inherited wealth gives them a grounded perspective on life, but they thrive in creative communities. Time is their most precious luxury and they use a curator’s stage to cherish convivial and life-affirming moments of slow living.
CULTURAL MAGPIES New Socialites absorb a range of influences, from opinions of friends and tastemakers to face-to-face advice. Their definition of culture is similarly broad – highbrow to counter culture, and everything in between. Social memes are their currency and they enjoy disruptive ideas without forgetting the texture and value of cultural traditions.
SERENDIPITY VS PLANNINGMoments of serendipity are one of life’s great joys, and New Socialites enjoy the ‘stolen’ luxury of unplanned moments, especially since most decisions are carefully planned. Time poor, they rely on digital media to research and evaluate, so respond to seamless online service, with opportunities to interact and read others’ opinions.
OPPORTUNITIESUnderwhelmed by overt luxury, New Socialites do appreciate quality and love ideas that make life fun or super convenient. They crave solid advice and lasting relationships. One of our experts highlighted that, for them: “It’s about craftsmanship… doing something really, really well through all layers: from sales and customer treatment to after-sale contact”.BEHAVIOR
- Cultural Curiosity- Expressive- High Touch- Personal Curation
HUMAN INTERFACEIntegrated Lifestyles + Creative Capital
CURATOR’S STAGEConviviality + Textured Luxury
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobalNEW SOCIALITES
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015
“Offerings in this luxury segment will be safe, nice and more comfortable. Just the fact that you prioritize family shows a surplus in your time and energy, replacing luxury as it used to be – passive consumption.”Kjaer Global expert interview 2015
REGIONAL INFLUENCEGlobal, skewed West, EU, Scandinavia, North America, LTA and Asia
NEW SOCIALITES
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
ADVENTURE HUNTERS
2025+ I The Evolution of Luxury I © Kjaer Global | 6362
ADVENTURE HUNTERS
PROFILE
Adventure Hunters seek life beyond the mainstream
and have developed a new connoisseurship in their
hunt for the authentic, the wild idea or the lived
experience. Many are part of the upcoming millennial
cohort and, while they find cultural sharing attractive, they expect luxury with a conscience and sense of
place.
RAW LUXURY
The material world of luxury is a continuation of
Adventure Hunters’ passion for travel, food and
artistic expression, so they favor the handcrafted, the
tactile and the unspoiled. Their consumption universe
can be lived, breathed and tell a unique story – their
identity is underpinned by a pioneers’ mindset.
SHARING VS FIRST EXPLORER
While Adventure Hunters are global citizens –
inhabiting a digital universe, where stories are
swapped and intelligence passed on – they crave
unique discoveries. From the remote outposts of
Nordic Cool to the ultimate deserted island, they like
to put their flag up first, and then share the knowledge with their network.
OPPORTUNITIES
Adventure Hunters find things out for themselves, closely scrutinizing for quality, integrity and social
responsibility, so this makes niche, intelligent
messaging essential. Differentiation is more important
than innovation. One of our experts sees himself
in their mindset: “My generation is the future buyer of luxury, and we are searching back for traditional
experiences.”BEHAVIOR
- Open & Sharing
- Sensorial & Tactile
- Experimental
- Responsible
ONE PLANET LIVING
Glocalization + Deep Storytelling
NEW CONNOISSEURSHIP
Imperfect Perfect + Nordic Cool
Swede Magnus Nilson discovers local Nordic Cool
Photo: K
jaer Global 15 – The N
ordic Cook B
ook
3.ADVENTURE HUNTERS
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015 – Haukelifjell N
orway
REGIONAL INFLUENCE
Global, skewed Asia, EU, Scandinavia, North
America, Australia & Middle East
“At a time where everything
has become accessible, the
idea of inaccessibility
becomes an attractive path
to follow for people – and
for brands that aim to
differentiate themselves.” Kjaer Global expert interview 2015
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com 2025+ I The Evolution of Luxury I © Kjaer Global | 6968
Intelligent reduction and elegant products
IDEALISTIC PIONEERS
PROFILEIdealistic Pioneers are proud of their achievements,
but measure success in meaning, not wealth.
Seeking a balance in every aspect of existence, they
want to give back to society. They practice everyday
mindfulness and are on a quest for spiritual growth,
craving intelligent reduction and elegant products
tailored round them.
MECOSYSTEMS Idealistic Pioneers perceive the world as a system of
things and beings and put themselves at the center,
expecting brands to treat them as unique individuals.
They need to both stand out from the crowd and
belong – personal pleasure with social principles –
and love experiential and transformative luxuries.
PURPOSE VS PLEASUREWith high expectations in all areas, Idealistic Pioneers
seek purpose and a clear raison d’être from brands – excellence and sustainable practices are a given.
While luxury, for them, is the harmony of a life lived
meaningfully, they enjoy sensorial pleasures without
guilt and are attracted to intellectual meeting points
that build connection.
OPPORTUNITIESAware of their privileges, Idealistic Pioneers are open
to creative ideas grounded in radical thinking. They
are particularly inspired by clever concepts with social
value. As one of our experts notes: “Luxury brands have a responsibility to take the privilege seriously by
providing leadership in creative, meaningful, ethical
and sustainable design”.BEHAVIOR- Principled
- Seeking Balance
- Self Development
- Experiential
FEMALE FACTOR(Well)being 4.0 + Intelligent Reduction
THE GOOD LIFEMindful Living + Betterness
4.IDEALISTIC PIONEERS
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal 2015
Photo: ©
Kjaer G
lobal – Shang X
ia Shanghai 2015
“The nature of philanthropy has changed, from signing checks to deeper involvement – this requires reliable partnerships, and needs to be personal.” Kjaer Global expert interview 2015
REGIONAL INFLUENCEGlobal (skewed West & China) EU, Scandinavia,
North America and Asia
IDEALISTIC PIONEERS
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11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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NEW LUXURY MANIFESTO
#1. INNOVATE OR DIE #2. BUILD EXPERIENCES BEYOND PRODUCTS #3. ENRICH LIVES, TIME IS IRREPLACEABLE #4. ENABLE MEANINGFUL CONSUMPTION #5. DELIVER ESSENCE, NOT EXCESS
11_2015 | The Evolution of Luxury 2025+ | © kjaer-global.com
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