View
160
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
What Numbers Don´t Tell You (Correctly)
Richard PircherUniversity of Applied Sciences bfi Vienna
richard-pircher.net
A Quiz …
Count how many times the players wearing
white pass the ball
please don´t talk to your neighbour
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY (second Video)
Focus
• To be able to focus on something is a valuable ability • To perceive all stimuli around us would
be far too much• To focus on something means
missing everything else• Numbers only may quantify what
is noticed as important(Most, Scholl, Cliffort & Simons, 2001 )
Invisible Gorilla
• Some people may know the first video with an invisible gorilla already• Do they realize the other
surprising details which are new in the second video?
The Monkey Business Illusion• Among those people who already knew
the first video with the Gorilla only 17 % took notice of the other two events=> they probably thought they knew the video already• Among those who didn´t know the first
video 29 % realized the curtain changing colour and the leaving player.
The Monkey Business Illusion
When you´re looking for a gorilla,
you often miss other unexpected events
The Monkey Business Illusion
Prior experiences and knowledge
may be misleading
Sensing the Future?• ¼ of our brains capacity is occupied with differentiating
valuable from irrelevant information• For this task the brain uses
expectations based on experiences from the past
• May we be sure thatnothing is missedwhich could be
important for the future?
Change Blindness Blindness
• The change blindness study• Most people firmly believe that they
would notice such large changes • We tend to be blind to our own
blindness • That’s a kind of
change blindness blindnesshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qb-gT6vDrmU&index=56&list=PL944828D6EF3E7530(Levin et al. 2000, Simons / Rensink 2005)
Change Blindness Blindness
• We don´t want to believe that we can be that easily manipulated• We want to believe in
everything which confirms our current beliefs and which• flatters our ego
Planning fallacyPeople tend to• underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future
actions and to overestimate the benefits of their own tasks (optimistic bias)
• overestimate the time needed as outside observers of somebody elses task (pessimistic bias)
• This phenomenon occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned.(Kahneman / Tversky 1979, Lovallo / Kahneman 2003)
Loneliness feels cold• One group of test persons is asked to recall an
experience of social exclusion within a larger test context
• The other group is asked to recall an experience of social inclusion
• With the pretext of a heating problem both groups were asked to estimate the room temperature
• Those who recalled the social exclusion experienced a significantly lower room temperature than those who recalled an inclusion experience
(Zhong & Leonardelli, 2008, Bargh / Shalev, 2012)
Emotional and social
contexts influence our perception and
judgment
The Unconscious Rules
• “Everyday intuitions suggest full conscious control of behavior, but conscious thought has little or no impact on behavior.”• In fact the unconscious strongly influences
our behaviour• It is plausible that almost every human
behavior comes from a mixture of conscious and unconscious processing
(Baumeister, Masicampo, & Vohs, 2011)
Thinking Too Little – Thinking Too Much
• Thinking too little causes – mistakes, errors and – actions which contradict other decisions and actions– Thinking is a kind of mental test run.
• Thinking too much leads to – a tunnel vision and narrow minded decisions– decisions which are easy to explain to others but are
not consistent with our own feelings and preferences any more
(Ariely / Norton, 2011, Nordgren et al., 2011)
Using the Best of Both WorldsSystem 1 – old and powerful(unconscious, intuitive)
System 2 – new and controllable(conscious, reflective)
Automatic, affective ControlledEffortless EffortfulAssociative DeductiveRapid, parallel Slow, serialProcess opaque Self-awareSkilled action Rule applicationConcrete, specific Neutral, abstractCausal propensities StatisticsPrototypes Sets
e.g.: DRIVING A CAR ON A WELL-KNOWN ROUTE
e.g.: FINDING THE BEST WAY TO DRIVE ROUND ROAD WORKS
Adapted from Kahneman / Frederick 2002
Using the Best of Both Worlds
Unconscious ressources may be integrated:• Sleep on decisions: during sleep the brain
consolidates information and connects it with prior knowledge
• Stop thinking about something and switch to non-cognitive activities: sports, nature, meditation, etc.
• Invite contradictive and diverse perspectives to identify blind spots instead of favoring mainly affirmative oppinions, e.g. through critical people, customers, etc.
The strengths of our unconscious resources
may be consciously integrated in everyday life
Take-away Guidelines1. Be aware that we usually focus on what we already
know. We overlook a lot which could be important for the future. Numbers only quantify what we already notice as being important.
2. Question current beliefs and the misleading power of your own ego. Knowledge may be distortive.
3. Use the best of both worlds: Consciousness and unconsciousness
4. Ask yourself the question: Am I thinking too little or am I thinking too much?
5. Use diverse and non-cognitive activities to enlarge perspectives and to identify blind spots
Richard PircherUniversity of Applied Sciences bfi Vienna, Austria
richard.pircher@fh-vie.ac.atrichard-pircher.net
Slides are available at de.slideshare.net/pircher
I would be glad to answer your questions and to discuss
the topic
Feel free to contact me!
Recommended