ICT - The Future of Jobs and the Human Project by Professor Luciano Floridi, Oxford Internet...

ICT, THE FUTURE OF JOBS, AND THE HUMAN PROJECTLuciano FloridiProfessor of Philosophy and Ethics of InformationDirector of ResearchOII, University of Oxford

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

PROCESSING POWER – MOORE’S LAW1m fold in 40 years

$ 100 trillionsQatar (57/190) GDP 98 trillions$ 100 trillionsQatar (57/190) GDP 98 trillions

COSTiPad2: in 2010, 1600 MIPS = $ 100

Three limits to the speed of growth of data: - thermodynamics- intelligence- memory.

Acquisition/Storage

Usability

Security/Safety

Analytics

Accessibility

Law/Ethics

Costs

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

No ICTs

Individual and social well-beingrelated to ICT

Individual and social well-beingdependent on ICT

Those who live by the digit, die by the digit.Those who live by the digit, die by the digit.

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Enveloping the world (data-fication) without fully realising it.

In robotics, an envelope (also known as reach envelop) is the three-dimensional space that defines the boundaries that the robot can reach.

In recent years, the world has been adapting to smart technologies.

Dishwasher vs. Humanoid RobotDishwasher vs. Humanoid Robot

Past: enveloping a stand-alone phenomenon (e.g. factory).

Past: enveloping a stand-alone phenomenon (e.g. factory).

Future: enveloping the environment as an ICT-friendly infosphere. Future: enveloping the environment as an ICT-friendly infosphere.

Inside the computerInside the computer

Back inside

Outside the computer

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

22.5

20

17.5

15

12.5

10

7.5

5

2.5

0

Ca. 21% EU pop. used a laptop to access internet, wireless, away from home/work.Ca. 21% EU pop. used a laptop to access internet, wireless, away from home/work.

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Robust, cumulative, progressively refining.Robust, cumulative, progressively refining.

Memory outperforms intelligence even if syntactic engines need semantic ones.

Memory outperforms intelligence even if syntactic engines need semantic ones.

We are not immobile, at the centre of the universe (Copernicus).

We are not unnaturally detached and diverse from the rest of the animal world (Darwin).

We are not Cartesian subjects entirely transparent to ourselves (Freud).

We are not disconnected agents, but informational organisms (inforgs), sharing with biological and engineered agents an environment which is basically informational (infosphere).(Turing).

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Information society: intellectual, intangible assets (knowledge-based economy), information-intensive services (business and property services, finance and insurance), public sectors (especially education, public administration and health care).

Total world wealth = 2011, $ 231 trillion, $33.000 pp.Advertisement = 2011, $ 498bn (ca. half a trillion)Military = 2010, $ 1.74 trillionEntertainment and media = 2010, ca. $ 2 trillionHealth = 2010, $ 6.5 trillionICTs = 2010 $ 3 trillionFinland GDP = 2012, 212bn

Sources: The Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2011; Nielsen Global AdView Pulse Q4 2011; Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2007-2011; IDC, Worldwide IT Spending Patterns: The Worldwide Black Book; World Bank.

We can no longer unplug our world from ICTs without turning it off.We can no longer unplug our world from ICTs without turning it off.

We often work as interfaces between technologies.We often work as interfaces between technologies.

ICT may easily and rightly make us redundant.However, this may mean more self-service.ICT may easily and rightly make us redundant.However, this may mean more self-service.

Distrib. of BLS 2010 occupation employment over the prob. of computerisation. Area = US emp.

Source: C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 2013.

Distrib. of BLS 2010 occupation employment over the prob. of computerisation. Area = US emp.

Source: C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 2013.

Comp. threatens one third of Finnish JobsSource: M. Pajarinen, P. Rouvinen, ETLA, Brief, January 2014.

Comp. threatens one third of Finnish JobsSource: M. Pajarinen, P. Rouvinen, ETLA, Brief, January 2014.

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… is progressing, […] Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set… 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.

Bill Gates, Talk at the American Enterprise Institute, March 2014.

The increase of technical efficiency has been taking place faster than we can deal with the problem of labour absorption […] We are being afflicted with a new disease of which some readers may not yet have heard the name, but of which they will hear a great deal in the years to come - namely, technological unemployment. This means unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.

John Maynard Keynes, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren 1930.

Personal consumption expenditure: package toursShaded areas indicate US recessionsSource: US Dep. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013.

Personal consumption expenditure: package toursShaded areas indicate US recessionsSource: US Dep. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013.

Strategies for the future

Education

R&D

Inequality

Leisure

Infraethics

From medical discovery to medical practiceSource: The Fourth Paradigm, 2013-2014

From medical discovery to medical practiceSource: The Fourth Paradigm, 2013-2014

Lost in Translation?A + B = main mechanism for economic growth.C = not the problem, more R&D does not translate into growth without B.Problem = underused (low) intellectual capital, why?

Economicgrowth

Economicgrowth

Marketing

business

Marketing

business

R&Dinnovation

R&Dinnovation

A B

C

A Vicious Circle

Time

Untranslated

“Volkswagen with €9.5bn invested in

R&D leads the world R&D ranking.

In second place is Samsung

Electronics (€8.3bn).”

“EU-based companies outperformed

the R&D growth of their US

counterparts in Industrial Engineering

(12.3% vs. 9.4%) and Aerospace &

Defence (9.5% vs. -1.3%).”

Internationalisation motivates not only R&D but also Translation, cf. Germany’s automobile industry. Internationalisation not a panacea but a good example of “right environment”.What can be done (e.g. for SME)?

The State as an environmental force for innovation:1) The State as a agent: investments with high capital intensity, high risks, longer time.2) The State an ecosystem: provide the human (education) physical (infrastructure), and social (law, finance) conditions that make R&D more attractive and translatable.

The design of a R&D-friendly ecosystem can be successful only if it is shaped by all stakeholders, especially the R&D and business agents that are expected to flourish in such environment.

Outline

•Technology: power, costs, and data

•Time: hyperhistory

•Space: infosphere

•Humanity: the fourth revolution

•Agency: lost jobs, new jobs

•The Human Project: R&D as a strategy

•Conclusion

Being able to see what the future will be like and what adaptive demands smart technologies will place on humanity is vital in order to devise solutions that can lower their costs and increase their benefits.

Being able to see what the future will be like and what adaptive demands smart technologies will place on humanity is vital in order to devise solutions that can lower their costs and increase their benefits.

Human intelligent design should play a major role in shaping the future of our interactions with forthcoming smart artefacts. After all, it is a sign of intelligence to make stupidity work for you.

Human intelligent design should play a major role in shaping the future of our interactions with forthcoming smart artefacts. After all, it is a sign of intelligence to make stupidity work for you.

ICT, THE FUTURE OF JOBS, AND THE HUMAN PROJECTLuciano FloridiProfessor of Philosophy and Ethics of InformationDirector of ResearchOII, University of Oxford