Decision Making for All: Leaders, Followers, Partners, Loners, and More!

November 10, 2016

Decision Making for AllLeaders, Followers, Partners, Loners, and more!

Vincci KwongIndiana University South Bend

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

How do you make a decision?• For a recent purchase• For a project at work

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Bad decision

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Critical thinking and evaluation

November 10, 2016

ClearAccurate

Relevant / important

Sufficient

Purpose / Goal

Question / Issue

AssumptionsInformation /

Data / Evidence

Reasoning

Conclusions / Implications

Alternatives

Source: Variation on Gerald Nosich model

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Potential biases on inputs• Perception• Memory• Numerical data

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Perception

November 10, 2016

Factors contribute to different perception includes: self-concept, values, experience, beliefs, and culture.

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Biases related to perception• Confirmation effect

November 10, 2016

• Expectation bias• Self-serving biases

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Memory

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Biases related to memory

• Subsequent information

November 10, 2016

• Moral evaluation

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Numerical data

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Issues related to numerical data• Response bias• Representativeness• Framing

Pseudo opinions Answer sets Response scales Social desirability Allowing vs. Forbidding

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Ways to avoid biases• Be aware• Actively look for other perspectives• Find objective data

Perception specific:• Focus on questions that both agree with and challenge

our thinking• Try to take different point of views intentionally

Memory specific:• Keep notes

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Heuristics

November 10, 2016

A mental shortcut:Solve problems and make judgements quickly and efficiently

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Issues related to heuristics

November 10, 2016

• Availability• Representativeness• Anchoring

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Availability heuristic

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2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Representativeness heuristic• A cognitive bias in which an individual categorizes a

situation based on a pattern of previous experiences or beliefs about the scenario.

November 10, 2016

Women VegetarianWomen

&Vegetaria

n

Question: Polly went to the store and bought tofu, eggplant, broccoli, and frozen meatless lasagna. Is it more likely that Mary is a woman or a woman who is a vegetarian?

Gambler’s Fallacy

Conjunction Fallacy

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Anchoring• Use an initial piece of information to

make subsequent judgments

November 10, 2016

How would you answer these two questions?

1. Is the population of Shanghai greater than 20 million?

2. What’s your best estimate of Shanghai’s population?

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Avoiding heuristics pitfall• Recognize when you are using heuristic• Beware of biases associated with

representativeness

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Informal fallacies• Defects found in the content of the

arguments. There are many ways arguments can be defective. Fallacies of Relevance Fallacies of ambiguity Fallacies of the complex question Fallacies of weak induction

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Fallacies of relevance

November 10, 2016

Ad Hominem

• Straw man• Appeal to tradition• Argument from the club• Sunk cost fallacy• Appeal to pity

Argument from popularity

Appeal to authority

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Fallacies of ambiguity

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Interested in more fallacies?• http://www.iep.utm.edu/fallacy/• http://

utminers.utep.edu/omwilliamson/ENGL1311/fallacies.htm

November 10, 2016

2016 Indiana Library Federation Annual Conference

Questions?• Please feel free to contact me

Vincci Kwongvkwong@iusb.edu574-520-4444

November 10, 2016