Data, Trends, and Social Change

DATA, TRENDS & ACTIVISM: INCREMENTAL STEPS TOWARD

SYSTEMIC CHANGE

Future Intelligence

Ferguson was a

knowledge

management failure.

Amount of fines and fees collected in Ferguson, USD Millions, 2010-2015

0

0.7

1.4

2.1

2.8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$1.00

$2.63$2.46

$2.11

$1.41$1.38

Source: U.S. Department of Justice

Point of social rupture

Map of “SuperZIP” wealth clustering in Metro STL

Locus of social rupture

Percentage of Missouri population with employer-sponsored health insurance coverage

0.0%

26.7%

53.3%

80.0%

2000 2010

62%

76%

Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service/HHS

Decline of social assump3ons

Percentage of Americans with employer-sponsored insurance, by job type

Source: Economic Policy Institute http://www.epi.org/publication/bp353-employer-sponsored-health-insurance-coverage/

0

0.175

0.35

0.525

0.7

White-collar Blue-collar Service

26%

51.5%

60%

26.1%

52.7%

60.3%

29.5%

53.9%

61.9%

33.9%

59.0%65.0%

2000 2007 2009 2010

Percentage of Americans with employer-sponsored insurance, by race

Source: Economic Policy Institute, http://www.epi.org/publication/bp353-employer-sponsored-health-insurance-coverage/

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

White Black Latino

39.2%45.2%

66.9%

42.1%

52.6%

71.2%

47.3%

57.5%

72.6%

2000 2007 2010

Similar shi6s across

demographics

Workplace Mortality by Sector Deaths per 100,000 FTE hours worked

0

22.5

45

67.5

90

Education Architecture Arts Food Welding Police Mining Trash Roofing Pilots Fishing Logging

86.5

63.4

50.6

38.733

24

10.67.3

41.91.20.3

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshcfoi1.htm

Hidden reality that defies myth

Total U.S. enrollment in SNAP, aka Food Stamps (in thousands)

2500

12000

21500

31000

40500

50000

1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap

Booming 1980s

Program launch

Recession under Bush 41 and Clinton

Dot Com 1.0

Great Recession, nearly doubled

enrollments

Missouri enrollment in SNAP, aka Food Stamps

750000

800000

850000

900000

950000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

858,415

929,942947,888943,088

901,349

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap

Racial gaps in household wealth, 1983 -2013

Source: Pew Research Center, U.S. Federal Reserve, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/12/racial-wealth-gaps-great-recession/

Wages as a share of gross domestic product (versus finance, interest income)

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED Database

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.50

0.52

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Post-Cold War boom to Dot Com 1.0

Market crash and post-9/11 recession

Temporary housing boom

Manufacturing and union jobs dominate

Financial sector ascendant

The Great Recession

Percentage of U.S. population uninsured, by age, 2013

0

7.5

15

22.5

30

Under 19 19-25 26-34 35-44 45-64 65+

Source: U.S. Census

Total number of Americans without health insurance, 1990-2013 (in millions)

Source: U.S. Census

20

27.5

35

42.5

50

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Dot Com One, roaring economy

Crash of 2008Affordable Care Act

goes into effect

Housing “boom”

Impact-Probability Matrix

High Impact

High Probability

Low Impact

Low Probability

Major Disruption

Flash in the Pan

Strategic Shift

Incremental Change

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