You can "cure stupid" ASFPM 2016

Empowering Smart Disaster

Decision-Making through Smart

Communication

You can “cure stupid”

Premise #1

The biggest barrier to reducing flood risk and to making flood warnings more effective is that people don’t understand that disasters change things.

Premise #2

Risk communication can do more than reduce flood risk, it can save lives in flood events.

Crisis communication is more effective when it is preceded by effective risk communication.

Risk Communication Crisis Communication

IMPROVED DISASTER OUTCOMES

+

Disaster Communication

Loss reduction

Risk reduction actions

Crisis Communication

Adaptive decision making

Risk Communication

Pre-Event Event

Metacognitive Awareness

Bloom’s

Taxonomy

Ris

k C

om

mu

nic

atio

nC

risi

s C

om

mu

nic

atio

n

Thinking about disaster

Normalcy Bias

Sensemaking

Information Seeking

The three most important words:

Disasters change

things.

Normalcy Bias

Overestimating our abilities

Underestimating the impact of disaster

Availability of resources

Environmental changes

Physical changes

Fifty Years of ‘Awareness’

About half of families have taken some steps to be better prepared

Frequent events = higher preparedness rates, and better mitigation buy in

Sensemaking

Building a framework to understand an unfamiliar situation

Thinking by acting

Required for decision making

When sensemaking fails

No decision making Feeling completely overwhelmed and helpless

Anger, sense of betrayal, denial, panic

Bad decision making An inability to conceive the reality of what you are

experiencing

Continuing to make bad decisions in spite of obvious feedback

Information Seeking

It takes three messages (or a message and two confirming sources) to move most people to action

In short fuse events, there may not be time for information seeking

Risk > Crisis > Response

Effective risk communication

Reduces information seeking

Provides a framework for interpreting crisis communication

Builds skills for adaptive decision making

Research > Application > Results

1

Awareness to Action

Communicator Audience Outcome

Provide information Receive

Understand

Believe

Awareness

Reinforce w/ text, pictures,

maps, sources

Personalize

Confirm with others

Weigh credibility

Assess own ability

Intention

Clear directions

Expected consequences

Outcome expectancy

Cost/Benefit

Trust

Action

Improving Risk Communication

Teach cues to recognize the event

Give instructions in an easy to remember format

Emphasize that disasters change things

Give achievable tasks (success builds confidence)

Teach them to follow their instincts (not the crowd)

Improving Crisis Communication

Tell them who you are

Tell them what you know

Tell them what you don’t know yet, and when you will know it

Tell them how you know it

Improving Crisis Communication

Tell them what to do

protective action, achievable tasks

Tell them what will happen if they don’t

Tell them quickly

Tell them in a way they will understand

No jargon, big words or figures of speech

Acknowledge that they have a choice

Acknowledging Choice

Give (achievable) options

Make consequences clear

Acknowledging Choice

Introjection Integration Denial

ComplianceIncreased stressReduced sense of control

ComplianceReduced stressIncreased sense of control

No compliance

Performing a task because they feel they have to

Performing a task because they feel it is important

Refusing to perform a task

Premise #3

Ethical obligation is comprised of:

The responsibility to do a thing

The ability to do a thing

Questions? Ronda Oberlin, CFM CEM

Emergency Management Specialist

City of Lansing Office of Emergency Management

517-483-4110

ronda.oberlin@lansingmi.gov

The issue is no longer about understanding

public behavior. The challenge now is

modifying public behavior.”

Valerie Lucus-McEwen