Refugees, a problem of all centuries?

Refugees

A problem of all centuries?

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Jacques Bazen

Thomas MalthusReverend Thomas Malthus (1797): “Essay on the Principle of Population”. The world’s population is a ticking time bomb and a problem for reaching a happy wealthy society. Expected collapse in half 19th century

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Thomas Malthus and his predictions

The predictions of Malthus did not come true… Mankind invented the steam engine and food production increased sharply. In the 20th century GMO-foods.

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Thomas MalthusMalthusian view became synonym with misanthropic pessimistic view on the future.

Later in the 20th century the “Club of Rome” with their famous report: Boundaries to growth got the same “treatment”

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But in the early 21st century… was Malthus actually so wrong?

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Current stream of refugees

Is the underlying cause of the current refugee stream actually a Malthusian scenario?There are some arguments for it:- High unemployment among youth- Few economic opportunities - Lack of freedom / dictatorships / religious intolerance- Strong population growth

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Tahrir square, Cairo

Current stream of refugees

Or maybe there is another cause: Simply bad government leading to less opportunities for ordinary people.

What were the people at Tahrir square and other places protesting about?

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Arab Spring 2012The Arab Spring was an attempt in many Arab countries to do away with previous dictatorship governments.

Results:- Lack of democratic understanding / lack of trust: semi-

tribal societies- Religious extremism as answer to perceived external

threats: Middle East form of “nationalism”12

Failure of most of the Arab states“Institutional” theorists suggest the current troubles in the Arab world are most likely the consequence of the extractive nature of its government institutions.

In other words: Any move towards real democracy and freedom means a threat for the personal interests of the elite in control: they risk losing “a share of the pie”. In Egypt: The army with its power intervened…

Inclusive versus Extractive institutionsInclusive countries: Extractive countries:- Rule of law - Rule of elite- Equality for all: - Some are more equal

Solid property rights than others- Aimed at effectiveness - Aimed at interests of

and efficiency the ruling class- Encouragement of - Encouragement of clientelism:

Entrepreneurship: incentive to be government Incentive to invest official or politician.

Developments in the Arab World (I)

• Process of modern state forming in Europe largely passed the Arab world: Instead, many Middle East countries were colonies.

• Borders have been drawn arbitrarily by colonial powers when cutting up the Ottoman Empire.

• Societies are mainly tribal oriented, not national.• Weak states: Strong dictatorships to keep the

countries together 15

Developments in the Arab World (II)

• Over the last 15 years: Many interventions from Western European countries.

• Motivated by “War on Terror”• Result: Regime changes• Instalment of democracies in tribal societies: Recipe

for disaster• Political instability: Creation of ISIS

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Is the West responsible for the creation of ISIS?

US and European invasion in Iraq created an unsustainable situation with a new sectarian government.In the semi-tribal state Iraq, the new Shia leaders immediately started to oppress the old Sunni elite.USA disbanded Iraq’s army many angry unemployed young men… Disintegration of Syria gave them the opportunity to join a “protest movement”.

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Refugee camps Iraq

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Refugee camps Iraq

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Refugee camps Iraq

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Fleeing to Europe

Factors of influence:Human traffickingChain migration (good stories of earlier migrants give othersthe conviction that they canhave the same)

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Critical mass

If enough people migrate, and a certain critical mass is reached, then suddenly some mass effects can occur.

Malcolm Gladwell described the phenomenon in his book “The tipping point”

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“Gold rush” migration styleMass-hysteria: unrealistic expectations about prospects in the target country fuelled by early goers leads to massive numbers of migrants

Gold Rush of CaliforniaIn the beginning, media fuelled the motivation to get to California. Especially Samuel Brennan, a trader, spread the rumours in the media, triggering a Gladwell-style mass effect.

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Media channels in 2015

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Effects of the Gold Rush of CaliforniaPositive effects: Californian population boomed, as did cities like San Francisco and Sacramento. Infrastructure was built and California became one of the states of the USA in 1850Negative effects: Violence and killing of Native Americans. Many immigrants died because of hardships.

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Effects of the Mass Immigration in Europe

To obtain positive effects of this current Mass Immigration (and probably several more million refugees are waiting for after the winter to “storm Fortress Europe”) depends on the ability of the European countries to quickly integrate the newcomers in their societies. There are examples what happens if this process is not successful.

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The “Völkerwanderung” / Migration period

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The “Völkerwanderung” / Migration period

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Different Germanic tribes fleeing the Huns immigrated into the politically weakened West Roman Empire from the 3rd century AD.

For several reasons, the migrants were not integrated in Roman society as was customary before.

The consequence over time was the destruction of the Roman Empire and a period of war and violence.

On integration of refugeesDifferent positions of some writers

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On integration of current refugeesHuntington:

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“There are no occurrences of long-term successful integration of large groups of Muslims in European societies…”

“…Islam has bloody borders…”

“Religion is a central, perhaps the central force that motivates and mobilizes people for action”

On integration of refugeesThe Immigrant Advantage:

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“America has become rich and prosperous because of immigrants”.

Immigrants give us lessons to learn about their own culture.

Their experience will enrich us.

On integration of refugeesThe Flight of the Creative Class:

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“There is a global competition for talents. If the USA want to stay on top, it needs to incorporate top talents in its society…”

If America is to lose its attractiveness to the creative class and higher educated young people, in the long term it will suffer.

Current governmental policies discourage top talent to study in America.

Scarcity and Abundance mentality

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Steven Covey:7 Habits of highly effective people

Abundance mentality vs. Scarcity mentality

Is fear for immigrants a part of scarcity mentality and a self fulfilling prophecy for trouble?

Malthus revisited?As conclusion:- Can we expect “Malthusian end of the world style troubles”,

because of an invasion of poor immigrants trying to escape the troubles at their home countries?

- Is the current migration flow a consequence of failing politics: unwise interventions by foreign powers and we just have to face the consequences?

- Can we integrate these refugees in Europe, to make it stronger, like in California? Or are we doomed for destruction?

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