2014 City of Oakland Election -- Survey of Voters

220-4006

September 8-14, 2014

Assessing the November 2014 Races for Oakland Mayor and City Council

Results of a telephone survey conducted in English,

Spanish, and Chinese, and on landlines and cell phones

Prepared for: OakMayor2014.com

2

Methodology

FM3 completed 1,012 telephone interviews with likely November 2014

voters in the City of Oakland

Interviews conducted September 8-14, 2014

Interviews conducted on landlines and cell phones

Interviews conducted in English, Spanish and Chinese (Cantonese and Mandarin)

712 interviews were conducted citywide

An additional 300 interviews were conducted in the 2nd, 4th and 6th City

Council Districts, yielding the following total number of interviews in each

District:

209 in City Council District 2

206 in City Council District 4

211 in City Council District 6

Margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7% for the citywide results

Margin of sampling error of +/- 6.9% for the City Council District results

Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100%

3

Vote Question Structure and the Modeled Ranked-Choice Vote

Names and ballot designations for all certified

candidates in each race were read to respondents.

The candidates were read in random order.

Respondents were asked for their first, second and

third choices.

To model ranked-choice voting, undecided voters

were eliminated. Supporters of the lowest-ranked

candidate were re-allocated based on their second-

and third-choice preferences. The process was

repeated until a candidate reached majority support.

4

Overall Key Findings

Sizable proportions of voters remain undecided in all four elections,

enough to swing any of the elections in the favor of several different

candidates.

In the race for Mayor, Kaplan, Quan and Schaaf are the leading vote-

getters, with Kaplan (57.5%) winning the modeled ranked-choice vote

over Quan (42.5%).

39% initially undecided

In CCD 2, King (55%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote over Guillen

(45%).

62% initially undecided

In CCD 4, Broadhurst (60%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with

Washington (36%) in second place.

64% initially undecided

In CCD 6, Brooks (64%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with

Johnson in second place (19%).

47% initially undecided

5

The Race for Mayor of Oakland

6

15%

13%

10%

6%

5%

4%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

39%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

Parker

Anderson

Ruby

Liu

Wilson

Williams

Sidebotham

McCullough

Houston

Karamooz

Undecided/Other

Kaplan57.5%

Quan42.5%

Kaplan, Quan and Schaaf are the leading vote-getters –and Kaplan wins the modeled ranked choice voting –

though two in five voters are undecided.

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result

<1%

<1%

7

Undecided voters are disproportionately at the age extremes, independent, Republican,

Asian/Pacific Islanders and African-Americans.

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

Demographic Group Undecided/DK % of Electorate

All Voters 39% 100%

Ages 18-29 48% 12%

Ages 75+ 48% 8%

Independents Ages 18-49 47% 15%

City Council District 3 46% 16%

Asians/Pacific Islanders 46% 10%

Chinese 46% 7%

Women Ages 18-49 45% 25%

1+ Independent Households 44% 21%

African-American 43% 28%

Independent Women 43% 12%

Republicans 43% 6%

8

The first seven candidates eliminated by ranked choice voting were (in order):

Karamooz

Houston

McCullough

Sidebotham

Williams

Wilson

Liu

9

26%

22%

16%

10%

9%

8%

4%

4%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

Parker

Anderson

Ruby

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

8th RCV Round 9th RCV Round

Ruby was eliminated in the 8th round, and many of her supporters went to Schaaf.

26%

23%

18%

11%

10%

8%

4%

2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or

Previously Eliminated

10%

35%

12%

6%

0%

0%

0%

37%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

Parker

Anderson

Ruby

10

26%

23%

18%

11%

10%

8%

4%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

Parker

Anderson

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

9th RCV Round 10th RCV Round

Anderson was the next to be eliminated, and many of his supporters were unallocated.

28%

24%

19%

11%

10%

8%

13%

3%

0%

0%

55%

27%

2%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

Parker

Anderson

2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or

Previously Eliminated

11

28%

24%

19%

11%

10%

8%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

Parker

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

10th RCV Round 11th RCV Round

A sizable portion of Parker’s supporters went to Kaplan.

32%

26%

20%

12%

10%

6%

5%

9%

3%

40%

37%Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

Parker

2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or

Previously Eliminated

12

32%

26%

20%

12%

10%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

11th RCV Round 12th RCV Round

Like Anderson, many of Siegel’s supporters were unallocated once he was eliminated.

36%

29%

21%

14%

12%

5%

5%

55%

22%Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

Siegel

2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or

Previously Eliminated

13

36%

29%

21%

14%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

12th RCV Round 13th RCV Round

Tuman’s supporters tended to move to Schaaf or be unallocated.

40%

31%

29%

5%

40%

47%

8%Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

Tuman

2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or

Previously Eliminated

14

40%

31%

29%

Kaplan

Quan

Schaaf

1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

13th RCV Round 14th RCV Round

Quan narrowly beat out Schaaf in the final elimination, though Schaaf supporters were not likely to support either Kaplan or Quan.

57.5%

42.5%10%

70%

21%

2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or

Previously Eliminated

15Q2.

29%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

22%

35%

Jean Quan

Jason Anderson

Rebecca Kaplan

Dan Siegel

Ken Houston

Saied Karamooz

Peter Liu

Bryan Parker

Libby Schaaf

Nancy Sidebotham

Joe Tuman

Charles Williams

Pat McCullough

Courtney Ruby

Eric Wilson

No one/Could vote for any

Don't know

Respondents were asked:“Is there any candidate for Mayor of Oakland

that you would never vote for?”

16

The Race for City Council

17

55%

45%

13%

9%

7%

7%

1%

62%

King

Guillen

Blackburn

Park

Maxey

Undecided/Other

King and Guillen appear to be the top two contenders –with King wining the modeled ranked choice voting –though more than three in five voters are undecided.

Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result

3. In your area, there are five candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to three of them. If the

election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…

18

60%

36%

4%

22%

13%

1%

64%

Broadhurst

Washington

Lim

Undecided/Other

Broadhurst has a lead in CCD 4, though more than three in five voters are undecided.

Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result

4. In your area, there are three candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to three of them. If the

election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…

19

64%

19%

8%

9%

34%

10%

4%

5%

47%

Brooks

Johnson

Moore

Nosakhare

Undecided/Other

Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result

5. In your area, there are four candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to three of them. If the

election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…

While nearly half of voters are undecided, Brooks enjoys a three-to-one lead in CCD 6.

For more information, contact:

1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290

Oakland, CA 94612

Phone (510) 451-9521

Fax (510) 451-0384

Dave@FM3research.com Curtis@FM3research.com

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Appendix

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Oakland Mayor –Ranked Choice Voting Results

Candidate

Initial

with

Undec.

Initial

without

Undec.

2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th

Rebecca

Kaplan15.1 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.3 28.0 32.0 36.4 40.1 57.5

Jean Quan 12.7 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.5 23.2 24.3 25.6 28.5 31.2 42.5

Libby Schaaf 9.7 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 18.1 18.6 19.6 21.3 28.7

Joe Tuman 5.7 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.4 11.1 11.4 12.5 13.7

Dan Siegel 5.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.7 10.3

Bryan Parker 4.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9

Jason

Anderson1.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.2

Courtney

Ruby2.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1

Peter Liu 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2

Eric Wilson 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5

Charles

Williams0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

Nancy

Sidebotham0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

Pat

McCullough0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9

Ken Houston 0.2 0.3 0.3

Saied

Karamooz0.1 0.2

Undecided/

Other39.4

23

CCD 2 –Ranked Choice Voting Results

CandidateInitial with

Undecided

Initial

without

Undecided

2nd 3rd 4th

Dana King 12.9 34.0 34.4 42.9 54.7

Abel Guillen 9.4 24.9 25.2 32.2 45.4

Kevin Blackburn 6.8 18.0 20.8 24.9

Andrew Park 7.4 19.5 19.7

Ken Maxey 1.4 3.6

Undecided/Other 62.2

24

CCD 4 –Ranked Choice Voting Results

CandidateInitial with

Undecided

Initial without

Undecided

Jill Broadhurst 21.9 60.2

Ann Campbell Washington 13.2 36.2

Paul Lim 1.3 3.7

Undecided/Other 63.6

25

CCD 6 –Ranked Choice Voting Results

CandidateInitial with

Undecided

Initial without

Undecided

Desley Brooks 33.9 64.2

Michael Johnson 10.2 19.3

James Moore 4.1 7.7

Shereda Nosakhare 4.6 8.8

Undecided/Other 47.3